Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
319 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Near term /now through Sunday/...a series of shortwaves moving
through a westerly flow aloft results in a modest surface low moving
slowly from the lower Mississippi River valley to central Tennessee
by Sunday afternoon...meanwhile bringing a trailing frontal boundary
to near the western portion of the forecast area. A modest
southwesterly low level flow brings increasing deep layer moisture
to the area through Sunday...especially over the western portion of
the area. Precipitable water values will initially be slightly
below seasonable values around 1.0 inch but increase to 1.5-1.9
inches by Sunday afternoon...with the highest values over southeast
Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama which are about 200
percent of normal. While forcing is weak...this will be sufficient
to return slight chance probability of precipitation to the northwestern portion of the
area early Sunday morning...increasing somewhat through Sunday
afternoon. Another concern is the potential for dense fog development
overnight. Considering high resolution and sref guidance...have kept
areas of dense fog developing mainly over southeast
Mississippi...southwest Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle
tonight with patchy dense fog elsewhere. Considered issuance of a
dense fog advisory for the portion with the best coverage...but per
coordination and a lack of support from tabular guidance will hold
off for now. Lows tonight ranging from the lower 50s inland to the
upper 50s near the coast and highs on Sunday will be in the middle to
upper 70s. /29

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...a weak cold front
stalls out just upstream over central Mississippi as upper level
supporting dynamics eject northeastward over the middle west.
Southeasterly to southerly surface flow will create some overnight
advection fog Monday night and possibly Tuesday night. Minor waves
rippling through the moist southwest flow aloft could trigger some
spotty light shower activity closer to the surface boundary over
southeast Mississippi and our northern Alabama counties Sunday night
through Monday night. Upper level energy ejecting eastward out of the
broad upper level trough over the central United States provides the
drive to start the front shifting eastward shifting the boundary
to our northern Alabama and southeast Mississippi counties by Tuesday
afternoon. Dynamics and instability lacking so not expecting anything
more than some scattered light showers across these areas. The
boundary progresses to near the coast to just offshore Tuesday night
creating isolated to scattered light rain shower activity. Rainfall
accumulations at this time are only expected to reach a tenth of an
inch or less. Temperatures during this period will trend well above
climatological norms with high temperatures climbing into the middle to
upper 70s during the afternoon and generally only falling into the
low to upper 50s...near 60 along the coast. /08

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...a northerly surface flow
and cooler temperatures will follow in the wake of the cold front.
Additional positively tilted shortwave energy aloft follows in the
wake of the front which will create mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and
could lead to some light shower activity but again not much rainfall
is expected to fall into the bucket. Clouds are forecasted to
persist and Post frontal light rain...sprinkles could linger through
Thursday night. Skies are expected to scatter out by Friday. A
northerly wind flow and cooler temperatures will persist through
Saturday. Temperatures will range closer to normal during this time
with most areas experiencing lows in the 40s and highs in the upper
50s to 60s. /08


Marine...a cold front slowly approaching from the west will move
through the marine area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Light southeasterly winds ahead of the front switch to an increasing
offshore flow in the wake of the front. /29


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 57 76 58 76 / 0 10 10 10
Pensacola 57 75 60 77 / 0 10 10 10
Destin 60 76 62 76 / 0 10 10 10
Evergreen 53 77 57 79 / 0 10 10 10
Waynesboro 58 73 57 75 / 10 30 20 20
Camden 55 75 58 76 / 10 20 20 10
Crestview 50 78 54 79 / 0 10 10 10


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


This product is also available on the web at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations