Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...update to aviation
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1145 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015
06z issuance...general VFR conditions across the forecast area at this time. Am
expecting some localized fog to develop closer to sunrise...dropping
visbys int MVFR levels.
With the upper shortwave causing today's weather moving south of the area...
a small chance of any thunderstorms and rain development Monday afternoon/evening is
possible. Am expecting isolated coverage across the forecast area at most.
Short term...package updated to reflect current trends in precipitation.
This means area of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain off the MS/Alabama coast meandering slowly
east-southeast and dissipating...with a few rain showers moving east over northeastern
quarter of forecast area. Have kept the precipitation in over unprotected waters
overnight...in case. Temperature curves adjusted to reflect cooling from
precipitation activity today...with overnight low bumped down a bit.
Marine...did a quick update to the current marine forecast mostly to
reflect current wave conditions over inland bays and sounds along
with slight changes to wind direction and speed for the next few
hours. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of tonight and during the day on Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 640 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
Short term (tonight and monday)...an upper level trough across the
southeastern Continental U.S. Will persist through the next 24 hours. The low
pressure center embedded in the upper trough situated over eastern
Kentucky will lift northeast and evolve into and open shortwave.
Upper disturbances moving through the base of the upper trough will
traverse over the forecast area through Monday afternoon. The
surface high pressure ridge extending from the western
Atlantic...across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico
will remain intact while surface outflow boundaries from ongoing
convection over much of the forecast area move southeastward.
Ongoing strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with gusty straight
line winds...frequent cloud to ground lightning and periods of very
heavy rain will weaken and further dissipate through the early
evening hours. However...will maintain scattered probability of precipitation across the
entire forecast area tonight through Monday afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight will range from 67 to 71 degrees inland
areas and from 71 to 75 degrees along the immediate coastal
sections. High temperatures Monday will range from 86 to 92 degrees.
Long term (tuesday through sunday)...surface and upper ridging will
build into the region on Tuesday through the end of the week. This
will drop rain chances back to a more typical diurnal summertime
pattern through the extended period. Along with the lower rain
chances...temperatures will also climb as the ridge builds. Highs will be
back into the low and middle 90s. As a result...heat index values will
rise back to around 100 by middle week. Overnight lows will remain
muggy with low 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. /13
Marine...showers and thunderstorms will continue over the marine
area tonight. Strong gusty winds...frequent lightning and locally
higher seas can be expected with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. Outflow from storms could result in increased wind shifts
over portions of the marine area. Otherwise...a light to moderate
south to southwest wind flow will persist over the marine area
through the middle of next week as a surface ridge of high pressure
continues to stretch from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 88 71 90 74 91 / 80 30 30 05 20
Pensacola 87 73 88 76 90 / 80 30 40 20 20
Destin 85 74 87 78 88 / 80 20 40 20 20
Evergreen 86 67 91 72 93 / 80 40 40 20 20
Waynesboro 87 69 92 72 93 / 80 30 30 10 20
Camden 86 69 91 72 92 / 80 40 40 20 20
Crestview 89 67 91 72 92 / 80 30 50 20 20