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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1152 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18z issuance...VFR conditions through about 15.09z followed by mostly
MVFR ceilings through 15.18z. Expect better middle to low clouds with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by early Monday
morning...moving in from the west and southwest... with the best
chance of rain occurring late Monday morning through Monday evening. A few
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will also be possible by
early Monday afternoon continuing into the early to middle evening hours.
Winds will be mostly east southeast at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
and early this evening diminishing to 6 to 10 knots overnight and
early Monday morning then increasing to 12 to 16 knots with possible
higher gusts late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. 32/ee


Previous discussion... /issued 524 am CST sun Feb 14 2016/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through late this
evening. Ceilings lower to MVFR late in the period. /13

Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CST sun Feb 14 2016/

Near term /now through Sunday night/...zonal upper level flow
develops today as an upper shortwave approaches the area from the
west. Meanwhile...surface high pressure will move off the middle-Atlantic by
this afternoon. This will allow a southeasterly flow to develop and
bring increasing moisture and clouds into the area. Highs today will
be the upper 50s and low 60s. Clouds will increase from
the west tonight as the upper shortwave nears. Clouds will lower late
tonight as moisture levels continue to increase. Rain chances will
begin to increase from west to east after midnight tonight. Lows
tonight will be in the low 40s to low 50s. /13

Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...a longwave trough over the
central states advances slowly eastward to the easternmost states
through Tuesday night. An associated surface low located initially
near the arklatex advances to the east central states by Monday
night...meanwhile bringing a cold front through the forecast area.
A southerly 850 mb flow increases to 40-50 knots on Monday ahead of
the approaching cold front...with precipitable water values
increasing to near 1.25 inches. Shear values still look to increase
to 200-300 m2/s2 on Monday as the low level jet strengthens...but
instability likewise continues to look to be a limiting factor with
GFS MLCAPES of 200-500 j/kg with values of 400-500 rather limited
spatially. Sref probabilities for cape values of 500 or greater peak
at 50-70 percent over southeast Mississippi...extreme southwest
Alabama and part of the northwest Florida Panhandle...where Storm Prediction Center
currently has placed a slight risk. Will highlight this portion of
the area with a somewhat better potential for strong to severe storms
in the hazardous weather outlook...but expect this potential to be
isolated at this point. Will have probability of precipitation increasing to categorical
across the entire area by Monday afternoon. Will have high probability of precipitation over
the eastern portion of the area early Monday evening with chance probability of precipitation
over the westernmost portion...with probability of precipitation tapering off to dry
conditions by late Monday night as the front moves through and exits
to the east. Highs will be mostly in the middle to upper 60s on Monday
and Tuesday. Lows will range from the Lower/Middle 40s inland to the
upper 40s near the coast. /29

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...the longwave trough moves off
into the western Atlantic with upper ridging building into the region
through Thursday. Another upper trough meanwhile advances into the
plains and then ejects across the northeast states...leaving a mainly
zonal flow over the forecast area. A surface high over the southeast
states moves off into the western Atlantic through the period with
light northerly winds switching to a southerly direction by Friday.
Have continued with a dry forecast through the period. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the middle 60s and trend to the lower 70s for
Friday and Saturday. Lows Wednesday night will range from the lower
40s inland to middle/upper 40s closer to the coast and trend to the
Lower/Middle 50s by Friday night. /29

Marine...a moderate southeasterly flow is expected to develop by
this afternoon and build Monday ahead of another cold front
approaching from the west. This front is expected to move across the
marine area late Monday night leading to a moderate offshore flow in
the wake of the front through Tuesday. /13


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