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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
919 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Update...will update to decrease cloud cover overnight to mainly
mostly clear skies with other minor adjustments. Update out soon. /29


Previous discussion... /issued 605 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/

00z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Light
southwest winds become calm overnight with a light southeast to south
flow developing by early Wednesday afternoon. May see some patchy fog
development late tonight. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/

Short term....mid/upper level trough-shear axis noted yesterday west
of the forecast...still extending from the Great Lakes region down into
Texas per water vapor imagery. A few shortwaves noted along the
axis...but dynamics associated with these features remains west of
the forecast area through Wednesday. Models (nam/GFS/ecmwf) all seem to
initialize fairly well again today with regard to the features
mentioned above. At the surface...high pressure remains centered along
the middle Atlantic and continues to ridge southwest into the southeast
states through late week. At the same time a weak low pressure area
or trough over the northeastern Gulf (remnants of erika) will
linger...and possible weaken even more...still over the northeast
Gulf or along the North Florida Gulf Coast. While the position of the
upper trough will be conducive for increased midlevel moisture..the surface
ridging poking into the region from the northeast will keep dew
points in the upper 60s over most of the forecast area. With the
continued lack of any larger scale forcing mechanisms...expect little
to no precipitation through Wednesday...although an isolated late
afternoon sea breeze shower or storm could be possible just inland
from the coast both late this afternoon and again tomorrow. There
has been some light patchy overnight fog the past couple of
nights...especially inland away from the coast...and will likely see
some more light fog again tonight. A light and somewhat variable
wind flow pattern will continue...but near the coast becoming more
light offshore overnight and onshore tomorrow afternoon. Lows
tonight in the low 70s inland and middle 70s coastal. Highs on
Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s coastal and middle 90s
interior. 12/ds

Long term...middle to upper level trough stretching from the Tennessee River
valley to the western Gulf will continue to drift east and fill
through late Friday followed by a Broad Cut off middle level low
centered along the Georgia/SC coast on Sat...then drifting west through
early next week. Latest model soundings across the forecast area show
deeper moisture later in the week with precipitable waters climbing to 1.4 to 1.9
inches combined with weak instability or cape in the lower to middle
levels along with weak forcing in the middle levels. Most of the model
guidance depicts better coverage of precipitation from middle week through
early next week with the better rain chances occurring during the
afternoon or early evening hours...or mostly diurnally driven due to
the weak forcing and instability. With this pattern the threat of
severe weather remains low. Patchy areas of fog will also be possible
mostly around sunrise through early next week.

As for temperatures with better clouds expected by midweek continuing
through the early next week afternoon highs will be a tad cooler
Thursday and Friday...mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s...then
the upper 80s to near 90 Saturday through early next week. Night
time lows will continue to be mostly in the lower to middle 70s
through the early next week. 32/ee

Marine...a weak pressure pattern remains in place over the marine
area for the remainder of the week...resulting in a primarily light
windflow. A broad weak low over the extreme northeast Gulf (the
remnants of erika) will likely remain nearly stationary over the
northern Gulf or coastal areas of North Florida through the end of
the week with no real chances for redevelopment expected at this time.
Meanwhile a surface ridge of high pressure will continue over the
eastern part of the country...well to the north of the marine area.
This weak pressure pattern will continue to maintain a light and
somewhat variable wind flow over the coastal waters through most of
the forecast period (although with a more offshore component late nights
and early morning and onshore component in the afternoons and early
evening hours). Little change in seas expected. Scattered showers and
storms becoming more likely over the marine area toward the end of
the week. 12/ds


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 73 93 74 92 74 / 05 20 10 30 20
Pensacola 75 92 76 90 76 / 10 20 20 30 20
Destin 78 88 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 30 20
Evergreen 71 95 72 92 73 / 05 20 10 30 20
Waynesboro 71 95 73 94 72 / 10 20 05 30 20
Camden 71 92 72 93 73 / 05 20 05 30 20
Crestview 73 93 73 92 73 / 10 20 10 30 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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