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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1146 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Update...have updated to continue with high probability of precipitation over the eastern
third of the area through the early afternoon with probability of precipitation tapering to
good chance over the westernmost portion. Have gone with likely probability of precipitation
over the eastern portion for the middle to late afternoon hours with
chance probability of precipitation continuing further west. Made other minor changes. /29

&&

Aviation...
18z issuance...will begin with VFR conditions for much of the area
with occasional light rain early then vcsh through the overnight
hours. While a VFR ceiling is expected through the evening
hours...will have a MVFR ceiling developing along with light fog for
the late night into early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions with vcsh
return by 14z Wednesday morning. While winds are light and variable
in some locations at the beginning of the period...a light southeast
flow will prevails through Wednesday morning. /29

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 841 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015/

Update...have updated to increase probability of precipitation this morning east of the line
of showers and storms over the midsection of the forecast area advancing
steadily eastward. Have continued with high probability of precipitation over much of the
eastern portion this afternoon tapering to good chance over the
western portion. Made other minor adjustments. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 459 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015/

Short term [today through Wednesday night]...latest model guidance
continues to show next round of convection over lower la early this
morning likely moving into extreme western sections of the County warning forecast area near
sunrise this morning with a slower progression further east over
remaining areas of the County warning forecast area later this morning continuing through
this evening. This pattern is a result of the better dynamical
forcing occurring to the west early today shifting northward over la
and MS through this afternoon as the main middle level impulse begins to
dampen slowly. As for severe weather most of the current model
guidance depicts the current 35 to 40 knots 800 mb jet axis over the lower
parts of the la early today shifting mostly northward over la and MS
through this afternoon...thus resulting in enhanced developed over
the New Orleans/Baton Rouge at this time shifting north and east through
00z...with a few strong thunderstorms likely affecting extreme
western areas of the County warning forecast area near sunrise this morning...followed by
slightly weaker convection accompanied with gusty straight line
winds...very heavy rain along with frequent cloud to ground lightning
further to the east later this morning and this afternoon. With precipitable waters
climbing to around 1.9 inches for most of the County warning forecast area today and early
tonight locally heavy rain with minor to possible moderate flooding
of streets and small streams can be expected mostly due to training
cells over the same area...with the best rainfall amounts occurring
over the west half of the County warning forecast area generally east of the I-65 corridor
with some areas receiving up to .75 inches County wide especially
over inland sections of the southeast MS. Latest thinking from Storm Prediction Center
keeps the entire forecast area in the marginal risk for severe
weather today with gusty straight line winds...frequent cloud to
ground lightning along with very heavy rain being the main threats
with the stronger thunderstorms later today and this evening. As
mentioned above minor to moderate flooding will also be a concern due
mostly from training cells moving to the north and a slower
progression to the east with the main system. As for temperatures will lean
towards the current mav guidance through tonight... lowering todays
highs about a degree or two for most areas due to clouds and rain
then adjust tonight lows a tad mostly near the coast for consistency
with surrounding weather forecast offices. 32/ee

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is moderate.

An elongated middle level ridge of high pressure will continue to
stretch across the western Atlantic Ocean through the Florida Peninsula
and westward across the north central Gulf of Mexico Wednesday...
while west to southwest flow aloft prevails from the Southern Plains
to the Mississippi and Tennessee River valley region. A series of
shortwave impulses embedded within the west/SW flow aloft...combined
with a very moist airmass [precipitable water values between 1.7 to
near 2 inches in a few locations] and available instability [mlcape
values between 1000-2000 j/kg] will continue to create a favorable
environment for the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area during the day Wednesday. Even though shear
will overall remain fairly weak [0-6 km values 15-20 knots on
average]...the available instability will support a continued
marginal/limited risk of a few strong to severe storms across the
region Wednesday...with damaging wind gusts and marginally severe
hail the primary concerns. Convective coverage will decrease
Wednesday evening/night...but the continued presence of deep layer
moisture and embedded weak shortwaves within the middle level flow will
support keeping a chance of showers/storms in the forecast through
the Wednesday night period. Warm/humid conditions should otherwise
persist with daytime highs ranging in the typical middle to upper 80s
with lows Wednesday night in the middle to upper 60s inland to the lower
to middle 70s near the immediate coast. /21

Long term [thursday through monday]...weak upper ridging will
continue to extend from the northern and central Gulf to the western
Atlantic late this week into the weekend. Despite the building
presence of this feature in the vicinity of our County warning forecast area...medium range
solutions do show persistent boundary layer moisture remaining across
our forecast area through Sunday. Will keep isolated to scattered
showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend...with the
best coverage during the daylight hours. A deeper trough may move
into the upper Midwest early next week...with the base of the trough
axis moving through the central Gulf Coast region. This may bring an
increased chance of showers and storms back into the forecast Monday.
Warm and muggy conditions otherwise prevail each day with
temperatures staying fairly close to seasonal averages. /21

Aviation...
26.12z issuance...mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings through 27.12z. Lower
visibilities will also be likely in periods of heavy rain today
continuing through this evening...tapering off late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. Winds will be mostly southeast at 5 to 10 knots early
today increasing to 12 to 15 knots with higher gusts late this
morning through early this evening then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots
late tonight through 12z Wednesday. 32/ee

Marine...expect a moderate to occasionally strong southeast to south
wind flow to continue over the marine area through early tonight
then diminish slowly through the remainder of the week as the upper
level disturbance mostly to the west lifts north allowing surface
ridge to the east to rebuild west over the southeast Continental U.S. And north
central Gulf later in the week. Rain chances slowly decrease also
through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will be higher in
and around showers and thunderstorms through midweek. Small craft
should exercise caution for all marine areas through tonight. 32/ee

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 84 71 85 69 86 / 70 40 70 40 50
Pensacola 84 73 85 72 84 / 70 40 60 30 60
Destin 84 75 84 73 83 / 90 30 60 30 60
Evergreen 86 69 85 66 86 / 90 40 70 40 60
Waynesboro 82 69 85 66 87 / 60 60 60 30 60
Camden 85 69 84 67 85 / 80 60 70 30 60
Crestview 88 69 87 67 86 / 90 30 70 40 60

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk through Wednesday morning for lower
Baldwin-lower Mobile.

Florida...high rip current risk through Wednesday morning for coastal
Escambia-coastal Okaloosa-coastal Santa Rosa.

MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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