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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1220 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Update...a shortwave continues to move across the area with little
fanfare due to the very dry atmosphere in place. The ongoing
forecast remains on track and no changes are needed. /13

18z issuance
VFR conditions expected through the forecast under light northerly
flow. /13


..previous discussion issued at 337 am...

Short term (today and tonight) a shortwave trough stretching
south across the forecast area at this time moves east...the cloud over associated with
it moves off...leaving clear skies today and tonight. An upper level
ridge currently over the central/southern US rockies shifts over western sections of the plains. This will help to
build surface high pressure over the lower miss River Valley and keep
the forecast area under light to at times moderate northerly flow through the
first two periods of the forecast.

Even with upper level high pressure starting to build a bit over the
forecast expecting the exiting upper trough to work with the surface
high pressure over the lower miss River Valley to push cooler air
over the forecast area and keep temperatures around to a bit below seasonal. /16

Long term (saturday through thursday)...middle to upper level ridging
over the central states will build east across the region over the
weekend...and will shift east of the area early next week. This
results in a moderating trend in temperatures with highs climbing to
above normal levels by Sunday and continuing into next week. Surface
ridging across the area will keep lows near normal Sunday morning...
but lows will trend to above normal levels after that as the high
moves east and a southerly flow becomes established.

A deep layer south to southwest flow develops by late Monday and
will persist through much of the week...resulting in a gradual
increase in deep layer moisture values. Precipitable waters are
forecast to climb to 1.25-1.5 inches by midweek...but the middle to
upper levels are still forecast to remain fairly dry. So while
humidity levels increase through the course of the week...will only
introduce a slight chance of rain Wednesday/Thursday as upper level flow
transitions to semi-zonal. Any cold front passage looks to be delayed
to just beyond the forecast period. 34/jfb


Marine...surface high pressure will Noodle around over the lower
miss River Valley into Sunday...keeping area coastal waters under
light to at times moderate north to northeasterly flow. Upper level
energy moving east over the western Continental U.S. Will push the surface high
east of the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night...restoring a more organized
onshore flow by Monday. Light to at times moderate onshore flow will
last over the area into middle week. /16


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 76 50 78 55 83 / 00 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 76 53 79 58 82 / 00 00 00 00 00
Destin 75 55 78 61 78 / 00 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 75 43 78 50 84 / 00 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 76 44 80 51 84 / 00 00 00 00 00
Camden 76 43 78 50 84 / 00 00 00 00 00
Crestview 76 42 79 51 83 / 00 00 00 00 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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