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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1155 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Discussion...update to short term and aviation.


18z issuance...MVFR ceilings associated with a frontal passage this morning expected to
continue into the evening hours...then mix out overnight...with VFR
conditions after.



Update...current package on track. What little rain showers that appeared
this morning with the frontal passage have ended. The weak front itself is along
the coast and expected to move offshore tonight.



Previous discussion... /issued 443 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015/

Near term /now through Saturday night/...a weak diffuse surface
boundary has continued to sag southward and currently lies roughly
from near Luverne in Crenshaw County Alabama southwestward through
southeast MS near New Augusta in Perry County. As predicted satellite
shows an upper level jet maxima ejecting the main dynamics and thus
convection northeast of the forecast area. However still enough
forcing for scattered showers over Choctaw and Wilcox counties and
can't completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two early but by
sunrise expect only a few lingering showers potentially over our
eastern zones in south central Alabama. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies
in the a.M. Should scatter out by late morning...early afternoon.
High temperatures today should generally range from near 80 to the
middle 80s. Clear skies overnight will produce strong radiational
cooling and lead to low temperatures bottoming out primarily in the
50s away from the coast and near 60 along it. Breezy northerly winds
will be possible along the coast Saturday night. /08

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/ upper level low will
slowly spin in the vicinity of the South Carolina coast Sunday and
Sunday night before opening into a trough and pushing into the
western Atlantic as the next upper level trough approaches the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley regions Monday and Monday night. A dry northerly
to northwesterly flow pattern aloft will prevail across our area
Sunday and Sunday night to the west of this system...and will keep a
mostly clear and dry forecast intact through Sunday night. High
temperatures should be fairly close to normal Sunday with afternoon
readings ranging from around 80 to the lower 80s. A fairly dry
airmass should support rather cool temperatures Sunday night...with
lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 50s inland and around 60
to the middle 60s closer to the coast.

Boundary layer moisture will increase slightly across the region
Monday night ahead of a weak frontal boundary that will be pushing
into the deep south...and will keep a slight chance of light rain
showers in the forecast mainly in the far northwestern zones Monday
evening...then across the remainder of the area late Monday night.
Highs Monday should be a little the lower to middle 80s.
Slightly warmer overnight lows mostly in the lower to middle 60s are
expected Monday night. /21

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/ upper level trough will
quickly progress eastward over the eastern Continental U.S. Tuesday...and a dry
northwesterly flow pattern aloft will generally prevail across our
forecast area through the middle to latter half of the week. Will
keep a slight chance of light rain showers near coastal portions of
the area near the exiting shortwave trough axis early Tuesday.
Otherwise...clouds should decrease Tuesday afternoon...with mainly
clear skies and dry conditions expected Wednesday through Friday. The
dry surface airmass should allow for cool mornings and seasonably
warm afternoons during the middle to latter half of the week. /21

Marine...a weak cold front will push across the marine area this
morning with a moderate offshore flow following in its wake. Winds
will diminish Sunday afternoon through Monday...but increase again
Monday night ahead of another approaching front. A light to moderate
offshore flow becomes established following the front on Tuesday and
persists through midweek. /08


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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