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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
339 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014

Short term (today and tonight)...a deep dry layer prevails in an
upper northwest flow pattern in the southeast part of the United
States. It has been brought about by the presence of an upper level
trough moving across much of the eastern United States and ridging
aloft over the southwestern states. The sky will be free of clouds
over our forecast area today. With cool surface ridging extending
from the lower Mississippi Valley to the northern Gulf of Mexico...
highs today will only reach into the middle 50s inland to near 60 over
our coastal areas. Winds will veer a bit today and stay around 5 miles per hour
or less as the surface anticyclone moves further east.

The surface high will continue to dominate the southeast tonight...
and winds will quickly become light and variable after sunset. Clear
skies will persist through tonight. The axis of the ridge will become
oriented from southwest to northeast into the southeastern states
from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico...and with surface ridging and
deep dry air...temperatures would fall into the middle and lower 30s in
much of the interior...with upper 30s expected closer to the coast
and lower 40s along beaches. 77/blowing dust

Long term (saturday through thursday) looks like we will see
a period of moderating temperatures beginning this weekend and
lasting through at least middle next week. This is due to semi-zonal middle
and upper level flow developing across the southern third of the
United States with all the significant shortwave energy staying
across the far northern portion of the country. We will warm to the
upper 60s for highs on Saturday...with upper 60s to lower 70s
expected Sunday through middle week. Lows generally in the upper 40s to
middle 50s with the coolest night being Saturday night. Southerly flow
develops in the low levels this weekend...resulting in increasing
moisture values...with areas of stratus and patchy fog likely
Saturday and Sunday nights.

A strong shortwave moving across the far northern plains into the
upper Great Lakes Sunday into Monday will send a polar front south
into the midsouth/lower MS valley...but the front will likely stall
at the doorstep of our far northwest forecast area (far inland southeast MS/SW al)
Monday night. It is possible it could briefly push into areas like
Butler and Waynesboro...but the zonal flow aloft will likely prevent
any further southward push. Will show just a slight chance of a
shower Monday night through Tuesday night for the aforementioned
areas near the significant rain is expected
given there is no forcing aloft forecast. Otherwise...the forecast
period is expected to be dry across the area. 34/jfb


28.12z terminal forecast...
VFR through the period. Northwest to north winds less than 5 knots
will persist through this afternoon....becoming light and variable
around or after sunset. Chances of less than VFR are very low except
possible small areas of mist in low lying areas and marshes
especially west of I-65. 77/blowing dust


Marine...surface high will build from the Tennessee Valley through
much of the northern and central Gulf tonight. The flattening
pressure gradient would result in quickly weakening offshore winds
over the marine area today. Wind speeds will decrease over bays...
sounds...and near shore waters...but speeds averaging in the small
craft exercise caution regime will occur over the offshore waters
into middle morning today. The surface high will move into the southeast
states and north central Gulf today...and winds will veer northeast
then east and diminish through early today. Winds will veer further
to the southeast this weekend opening a window for possible marine
fog near shore Sunday. 77/blowing dust


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 58 44 68 54 73 / 00 05 00 00 05
Pensacola 58 49 67 55 72 / 00 05 00 00 05
Destin 56 47 65 55 70 / 00 05 00 00 05
Evergreen 56 33 68 46 72 / 00 05 00 00 05
Waynesboro 58 35 69 51 73 / 00 05 00 00 05
Camden 55 34 67 47 71 / 00 05 00 00 10
Crestview 58 32 68 45 73 / 00 05 00 00 05


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...



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