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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
936 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Mesoscale update...although upper level low pressure system
continues to rotate slowly westward over the central Gulf Coast this
evening...starting to move into the typical diurnal minimum of
rainfall coverage. Lingering evening showers/storms exist on radar
but are very isolated in coverage...quite a bit lower than the start
of the shift. Given radar trends...have lowered the probabilities of
precipitation for the remainder of the evening to 20% or less. Expect
to begin seeing more development offshore through the night where the
better instability resides and better lift sets up on the east side
of the westward moving upper low. Lows tonight will range from 68 to
73 degrees most locations...with middle/upper 70s along the beaches. /10


Previous discussion... /issued 630 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/

Aviation [23.00z kmob/kbfm/kpns taf issuance]...bulk of convection
is located well to the north of the local terminals. Outside of a
pop-up rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in the near term...VFR conditions forecast with
light west to southwest wind conditions. With upper level low moving
southwest of the area on Wednesday...daytime cumulus with bases around 3
kft are forecast to thicken with isolated/scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
developing by and after 23.15z. /10

/previous discussion/ 400 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/

Short term [wednesday]...scattered showers and thunderstorms will
regenerate west of I-65 during the afternoon hours...with isolated
coverage east of I-65. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable
of producing wind gusts to 45 miles per hour...hail up to one-half inch in
diameter...and hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches.

High temperatures Wednesday will range from 88 to 93 degrees inland
areas...with middle 80s along the beaches. /22

Long term [thursday through tuesday]...the remains of the upper low
will merge with a digging trough moving south across the Tennessee
Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of the trough...a weak
cold front will move south toward northern portions of the area
where it will stall and gradually wash out late in the week.
Meanwhile...the weak upper trough will persist through the weekend.
This will maintain the daily afternoon and early evening scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A strong upper trough will dig across the
eastern states early next week sending another cold front toward the
area. However...the global models disagree on the exact timing of
the front and will leave the scattered showers and thunderstorms for
early next week alone for now. /13

Marine...a ridge of high pressure will remain place across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through the week. This pattern will maintain
a light to moderate southwest flow across the marine area. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the week. /22


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 71 89 72 92 73 / 20 20 20 40 20
Pensacola 74 90 75 90 77 / 20 20 20 40 20
Destin 76 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 20 40 20
Evergreen 69 92 70 94 71 / 20 30 20 40 20
Waynesboro 68 91 70 93 70 / 20 30 20 40 20
Camden 69 92 70 93 70 / 20 30 20 40 20
Crestview 70 91 71 93 72 / 20 20 20 30 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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