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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
328 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Short term (today through Thursday night]...the area remains in between
weather systems this morning with an upper trough to our west and an
upper ridge to the east. The upper ridge will continue to win
out...with most areas remaining hot and dry. Enough middle and upper
level moisture has returned for an isolated shower or storm mainly
during the afternoon hours. Otherwise...highs will again reach into
the low and middle 90s. Dewpoints mixing out into the middle 60s during
the afternoon hours will keep heat index values in check. Lows
tonight remain muggy with low to middle 70s inland to upper 70s along
the coast. Patchy fog can again be expected inland...however
widespread dense fog is not expected. /13

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is unlikely

Thursday and Thursday night...middle level ridge flattens over the Gulf
while lowering heights/high level trough axis slips across the
southeast. On the west side of the trough...pockets of middle level
energy maximums embedded in the evolving high level northwest
flow will combine with deep layer moisture resulting in a chance of
showers and storms through the course of the day Thursday. Model
guidance suggests that layer instability will be low (<1000 j/kg)
will keep chances of storms only near 30% for much of the area. At
the surface...weak pressure pattern remains in place with a surface
high over the Gulf and a trough of low pressure aligned from the lower
Mississippi River Delta...into the southeast. Across the surface
pressure trough...winds light...mainly from the north over the interior
and becoming southerly late in the afternoon over the southern zones.
High temperatures in the lower half of the 90s interior to upper 80s
at the beaches. A slight chance of showers and storms forecast
Thursday night with lows in the lower 70s interior to middle 70s coast.

Long term [friday through tuesday]...moving into the close of the
week...a more amplified middle level pattern sets up with a high level
trough over the southeast and a deep layer ridge over Texas. This
pattern holds into the Labor Day weekend...with potential for an
upper low to begin cutting off over the southeast on Sunday. The
02.00z runs of the global spectral models of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) and the
Canadian Gem are supporting this. This feature is slow to
move...positioned from the southeast to the central Gulf Coast Monday
and Tuesday. With the window open for continued passage of middle level
impulses on the west side of trough to the east...and the evolving
upper low...a chance of showers and storms could put a damper on
Labor Day weekend activities at times. A weak surface pressure trough
remains in place across the central Gulf Coast this weekend which
also provides a focus for storms. Daytime highs in the lower to middle
90s interior to upper 80s coast Friday and Saturday.

A wedge of surface high pressure begins to build across the
Appalachians Sunday and will extend southwest into Alabama early
next week. Daytime highs to move to near seasonal the
middle to upper 80s Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows change
little with lower 70s interior to middle 70s coast. /10


Marine...a weak pressure pattern remains in place over the marine
area this week...resulting in light wind flow which will be more
offshore during the late night and early morning hours and onshore
late afternoons and early evenings. Little change in seas expected
with scattered showers and storms becoming more likely over the
marine area late in the week. /13


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 93 75 91 72 93 / 20 10 40 20 40
Pensacola 91 77 89 75 91 / 20 20 40 20 40
Destin 89 79 89 77 89 / 20 20 30 20 40
Evergreen 94 74 93 71 94 / 20 10 30 20 30
Waynesboro 94 72 94 72 94 / 20 05 30 20 30
Camden 93 73 93 71 94 / 20 05 30 20 30
Crestview 93 74 92 71 94 / 20 10 30 20 30


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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