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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
438 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Short term [today through Friday night]...scattered showers and
thunderstorms have begun to redevelop over the coastal counties of
Alabama including Mobile Bay forming mostly along a better moisture axis
which is prognosticated to slowly shift eastward through tonight as a
weakening shortwave trough continues to drift slowly east through
tonight. With this pattern better diffluence is noted with the both
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) across the region combined with deep moisture and
continued forcing in the middle levels will allow for another day of
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms across most inland areas
of the County warning forecast area today with the better coverage occurring over the western
half early today then shifting north and east through this evening.
As always with these conditions expect the stronger thunderstorms to
occur during the afternoon and early evening hours due to better
heating and instability in the lower levels later in the day. Gusty
straight line winds...frequent cloud to ground lightning and periods
of very heavy rain will continue to be the main threats with the
stronger thunderstorms. By this evening showers and thunderstorms
decrease in coverage a little better than the last couple of days as
better lift aloft continues to dampen and shift to the north and
east. Skies will also begin to clear better tonight generally from
west to east with patchy fog forming over most inland areas near
sunrise Friday morning. As for temperatures will lean close to the cooler mav
guidance for highs today due to clouds and rain and the warmer mav
guidance for lows tonights due to slow clearing. Highs today will be
in the middle to upper 80s for most areas. Lows tonight will be in the
middle 60s for most inland areas and the upper 60s to lower 70s closer
to the coast. 32/ee

A middle level ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across
the western Atlantic Ocean and eastern Seaboard Friday...while weak
ridging also persists across the Gulf of Mexico. A middle level trough
axis will meanwhile remain located over the northern and Central
Plains states. Our forecast area will remain underneath weak south to
southwest flow aloft between these features Friday...while a weak middle
level trough embedded within the middle level flow could remain in the
vicinity of the north central Gulf through Friday night. The surface
pressure pattern will otherwise continue to consist of a persistent
ridge of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the
north central Gulf. A moist airmass will remain in place across much
of our forecast area Friday...especially over the interior where
precipitable water values will continue to average between 1.7 and
1.9 inches. The weak middle level trough in the vicinity of the forecast
area will interact with the available moisture and instability to
produce another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
forecast area into Friday afternoon. Convective coverage will
decrease Friday evening...but isolated showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest
Alabama into Friday night as the deep layer moisture axis moves
northwestward along with the weak middle level impulse. Dry weather is
expected elsewhere Friday night. Some patchy fog will be possible
Friday night...though left mention out of the grids for now. Maximum/min
temperatures are expected to remain close to normal with highs Friday
mostly in the middle to upper 80s with lows Friday night in the middle to
upper 60s inland to the lower to middle 70s near the immediate coast.

Long term [saturday through wednesday]...a middle level trough will
continue to dig from the Central Plains states Saturday to the
vicinity of the Mississippi Valley region by Sunday. A southwest
flow pattern aloft will prevail across the central Gulf region
through the weekend...becoming more pronounced by Sunday ahead of the
approaching trough axis. Saturday currently looks to be the day of
lowest convective coverage through the extended forecast period given
lower precipitable water values and overall lack of convective focus.
Will keep isolated coverage in the forecast to account for potential
development along the seabreeze. Coverage of showers and storms
should become more scattered by Sunday given the increased southwest
flow and increased moisture.

Medium range deterministic models continue to hint at a middle level low
deepening in the vicinity of the arklatex or Mississippi Valley
region during the early to middle part of next week. A series of
impulses lifting northward and increasingly difluent flow should
result in continued chances of showers and thunderstorms through the
Monday- Wednesday time frame. Will keep probability of precipitation in the 30-50 percent
chance range for now...but this pattern could favor a fairly wet
period late in the extended. Little change in daily temperature
ranges are expected through early next week with daytime highs in the
middle to upper 80s and overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s inland
and lower to middle 70s near the immediate coast. /21


28.12z issuance...
mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings through 29.12z. Lower visibilities will also
be likely in periods of heavy rain today continuing through early
this evening...tapering off quickly after sunset. Winds will be
mostly southeast at 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts mostly near
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring mostly near
the coast during he early morning hours shifting further inland by
late morning and early afternoon. 32/ee


Marine...a light to moderate southeast to south wind flow will
continue over the marine area through early next week as a surface
ridge of high pressure along the eastern Seaboard and southeast
Continental U.S. Builds further west through the early next week. Better winds
and seas will occur over the near shore waters during the afternoon
and early evening hours through the forecast period due to afternoon
heating. Winds and seas will also be higher near the scattered
showers and thunderstorms occurring mostly over the near shore
waters during the morning and early afternoon hours. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 85 69 87 68 88 / 70 70 30 10 10
Pensacola 83 72 85 72 87 / 60 60 30 10 10
Destin 83 74 84 72 84 / 50 50 30 10 10
Evergreen 83 67 87 66 90 / 80 80 40 20 20
Waynesboro 84 66 87 66 88 / 50 50 40 20 20
Camden 80 66 87 65 89 / 70 70 40 20 20
Crestview 86 68 88 66 89 / 80 80 40 10 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk until 7 am CDT this morning for lower
Baldwin-lower Mobile.

Florida...high rip current risk until 7 am CDT this morning for coastal
Escambia-coastal Okaloosa-coastal Santa Rosa.




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