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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
535 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Short term [today and tonight]...latest radar loops continue to
show light rain moving across the central Gulf region this morning
ahead and in the wake of a strong cold front moving across the County warning forecast area
later this morning. Latest model guidance preferably using a blend
of the latest hrrr and GFS show some areas in Choctaw County in
Alabama and Wayne County in Mississippi could receive some freezing
rain by late this morning continuing into the afternoon hours.
Little to no accumulation is expected. Will mention less than .25
inches in a Freezing Rain Advisory beginning 11 am CST this morning
continuing through 5 PM CST time this afternoon. Latest model
soundings in these areas indicate a good warm nose aloft suggesting
freezing rain will be the main concern for now. Low clouds and light
precipitation will begin to clear late this afternoon and tonight leading
to more sun then clouds by sunrise Friday morning. The highest temperatures
will occur early today for all areas in the coastal waters forecast followed by falling
temperatures in the wake of a strong cold. One other concern will be gusty
winds in the wake of the front possibly leading to a Wind Advisory
for most areas for late this afternoon and early this evening. Will
continue to monitor for this situation for now. High temperatures today
will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s over northern and western
sections...lower to middle 60s further east and south towards the Alabama
and nwfl coast. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 20s well to
the north and west...and the lower to middle 30s to the east and and
south near the coast. 32/ee

[friday and saturday]...1039mb surface high pressure in the wake on
the strong cold front will be centered over Kentucky Friday morning
with ridges extending into central Texas and the northeast Continental U.S..
this high will gradually weaken and move south across the deep south
by Saturday morning and then weaken further to 1027mb as it shifts
east over the southeast Continental U.S. And western Atlantic by late Saturday
night. Meanwhile...a broad upper trough will settle over the eastern
Continental U.S. Through Saturday evening with weak upper ridging building over
the Southern Plains. It will be dry on Friday with exception of a
few patches of light rain hugging the coast in the morning as the
last upper disturbance in the base of the upper trough moves over
the area. Clouds will continue to clear the area early Friday
morning...followed by clear to mostly clear skies through the
remainder of the short term as the broad upper through moves
east...leaving primarily zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday.

Cool high temperatures expected on Friday and be about 16 to 21
degrees below normal...ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Lows
Friday night will range from 27 to 33 degrees inland areas...and
from 33 to 37 degrees along the immediate coastal sections. Highs on
Saturday will only manage to climb back into the upper 50s to middle
60s. /22


Long term [sunday through wednesday] upper shortwave moving
over New Mexico and north Mexico Sunday morning will carve out a
medium amplified upper trough Sunday night and Monday over the
Southern Plains. An Upper Cutoff low is expected to form over
western Texas by noon Tuesday...and move slowly east across the state
through through midweek. This will allow a deep southwest flow to
develop over the forecast area...with high clouds increasing
throughout the day Sunday...followed by increasing low clouds Sunday
night. It will then remain cloudy through the remainder of the long
term. Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening...with
a chance of rain remaining in the forecast each day through midweek.

It will also be cool through the remainder of the extended forecast
with high temperatures only managing to reach the upper 50s to lower
60s Sunday and Monday...warming slightly into the middle 60s on Tuesday
and the upper 60s on Wednesday. Low temperatures Sunday night will
range from 41 to 46 degrees inland areas...and from 47 to 52 degrees
along the immediate coastal sections....and then steadily climb into
the lower to middle 50s by Tuesday night. /22


05.12z kmob/kbfm and kpns taf cycle mostly LIFR to IFR visibilities
and ceilings through 06... MVFR ceilings through 06.12z. Low clouds
and patchy dense fog will be possible this morning followed by a
slow improvement this afternoon and tonight. Light rain will
continue to move across the region through middle to late afternoon
then clearing from west to east later in the day. Winds will be
southeast to south 5 to 10 knots early today shifting west then
north increasing to 15 to 25 knots with possible higher gust late
this afternoon and early tonight. Northerly winds will gradually
diminish late tonight and early Friday morning. 32/ee


Marine...areas of dense fog will continue over local bays and
sounds and the near shore Gulf waters through this morning. A light
to moderate southerly wind flow this morning will shift north and
build this afternoon and tonight in the wake of a strong cold front
that moves across the region later today. Seas will build to 7 feet
well offshore in the wake of the front. Northerly winds and seas
will gradually diminish late Thursday through early Friday morning
as high pressure builds south across the lower Mississippi River
valley and central Gulf states. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 59 30 53 31 62 / 70 20 05 05 05
Pensacola 65 37 54 37 63 / 60 20 20 05 05
Destin 67 39 54 42 59 / 60 20 20 05 05
Evergreen 62 32 53 31 63 / 70 20 05 05 00
Waynesboro 46 25 50 27 62 / 70 10 05 05 00
Camden 53 27 49 30 61 / 70 20 05 05 00
Crestview 65 36 56 33 66 / 70 20 05 05 05


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for alz051.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for alz063-064.

Florida...dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for flz002-004-

MS...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for msz067.

GM...dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for gmz630>635-

Small Craft Advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am CST Friday
for gmz630>635-650-655-670-675.



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