Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
436 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Short term [today through Wednesday night]...surface ridge will continue
to build from the west and north through tonight as deep trough
continues to shift east along the eastern Seaboard along with a deep
upper ridge over the Central Plains states. This pattern will lead
to a rather pleasant day across the central Gulf Coast region with
mostly sunny skies throughout the day with warmer daytime temperatures along
with less wind. For tonight skies will be mostly clear with more cold
temperatures overnight and early Wednesday morning. Highs today climb to the middle
60s for most areas. Tonight lows will range from the lower to middle
30s for most inland areas and the middle to upper 30s closer to the
coast. 32/ee

A deep upper level trough will continue to progress eastward across
the western Atlantic Ocean Wednesday...while ridging aloft develops
from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes region. A dry
deep layer airmass will remain in place across the central Gulf Coast
region Wednesday...with precipitable water values generally averaging
between 0.4-0.5 inches across our forecast area. Sunny skies will
generally prevail across our region with perhaps a few thin high
clouds passing overhead. A surface ridge of high pressure will
continue to move eastward and will extend across much of the eastern
Seaboard and into the southeastern U.S. By late Wednesday afternoon.
Our forecast area will remain on the western fringe of the surface
ridge axis...but afternoon high temperatures should average near
normal for late January. We expect highs to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s across most locations. Dry northwest to zonal flow
aloft will prevail Wednesday night with a modest increase in high
level cloud cover. Low temperatures were trended a little cooler
given recent trends...with readings expected to range from the middle
to upper 30s over the interior to the lower to middle 40s near the
coast. /21

Long term [thursday through monday]...the next upper level trough
will clip across the Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
region Thursday then eastward toward the East Coast by Thursday
night. An associated cold front will push southward toward the
central Gulf Coast region Thursday evening...and into the northern
Gulf of Mexico by early Friday morning. Weak lift and a modest amount
of moisture will support a slight chance of light rain along and
ahead of the approaching cold front Thursday evening/night...but
any associated rainfall amounts will be very light. Temperatures
actually look to warm several degrees above normal ahead of the
approaching front Thursday...with readings looking to rise into the
middle to upper 60s across much of our area. Temperatures fall back to
slightly below normal by Friday as high pressure builds southward
into the region in the wake of the frontal passage.

A change in the weather pattern is expected this weekend as a series
of shortwave troughs over the central and Southern Plains come into
phase with a deep upper level trough over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range model solutions show deep layer moisture and lift
spreading eastward toward the Mississippi Valley region by late
Saturday ahead of the approaching trough axis...while surface low
pressure deepens in the vicinity of eastern portions of Texas and
western la by early Sunday morning. The leading edge of moisture may
reach far western portions of our County warning forecast area by Saturday afternoon...
before gradually spreading eastward across the region Saturday night
and especially Sunday as low pressure lifts toward the Tennessee
Valley and the associated cold front approaches our forecast area.
We have kept a chance of rain in the forecast mainly over the western
half of the forecast area Saturday night...with rain chances
increasing to 50-60 percent by Sunday as deep layer moisture and lift
overspread the region. Rain chances should decrease from west to east
late Sunday night into early Monday morning following the passage of
the next cold front and as the middle level trough axis progresses
eastward. Relatively mild temperatures should continue this weekend
followed by a return to below normal temperatures early next week as
surface high pressure builds across the region. A low confidence
forecast in terms of sensible weather continues early next week
continues as medium range solutions differ on the northward extent of
moisture spreading across the northern Gulf. We will keep at least a
slight chance of rain in the forecast near the coast Monday...but
rain chances could increase just beyond this extended forecast
period. /21

&&

Aviation...
27.12z taf issuance...
VFR conditions through 28.12z. A few high clouds will be possible
through tonight. Winds will be northwest at 8 to 12 knots through
early this afternoon shifting northeast diminishing to 4 to 7 knots
this afternoon continuing through early Wednesday morning. 32/ee

&&

Marine...northerly winds ad seas will continue to diminish today as
high pressure builds from the west and north. For late tonight and
early Wednesday northerly winds will rebuild slightly as the surface ridge
strengthens to the west and north. An upper ridge over the central
Continental U.S. Continues to shift east by midweek this surface ridge will shift
east to near eastern Seaboard by early Thursday leading to a weak
southerly flow over the marine area Thursday and Thursday evening. A weak cold
front will then move south over the marine area late Thursday night
leading to a light to moderate offshore flow on Friday. Easterly
winds and seas will build over the weekend into early next week as
an area of low pressure along with a stronger cold front approach
from the west and northwest. 32/ee

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 64 37 61 41 68 / 00 00 00 00 05
Pensacola 65 40 59 43 67 / 00 00 00 00 05
Destin 64 43 57 45 64 / 00 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 65 34 59 36 67 / 00 00 00 00 05
Waynesboro 64 34 60 37 68 / 00 00 00 00 05
Camden 64 32 59 36 67 / 00 00 00 00 05
Crestview 65 35 60 35 68 / 00 00 00 00 05

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

32/21

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations