Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
issued by National Weather Service New Orleans la
315 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Short term...

The area continues to reside on the eastern periphery of a strong
ridge axis centered over the Southern Plains. A frontal boundary is
riding around the eastern periphery of this ridge and through the
forecast area this afternoon. Expect to see continued scattered
convective activity through this evening...with coverage decreasing
late this evening as daytime heating and overall instability wanes.
There will still be some lingering moisture along the coast and
offshore tomorrow...so some scattered convection could redevelop
tomorrow as lapse rates remain favorable. There will also continue to
be some slightly lower heights aloft which indicate that a weak upper
level vorticity will still be in place along the coast.

Farther inland...increasing heights aloft...increasing middle-level
capping...and some drier air advecting in will keep convective
activity largely suppressed. Fortunately...even with highs in the
middle 90s forecast...low dewpoints will keep heat index readings
well below advisory levels. The dry and more stable airmass will
linger into Saturday...with low probability of precipitation of 20 percent or less and lower
humidity expected across the area. Temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s once again...but with the lower dewpoints in
place...heat index values will generally range around 100 degrees.
These readings are more typical for this region during the Summer
months.

Long term...

The ridge axis will continue to extend eastward heading into Sunday
and Monday. With ridging in place aloft...increasing subsidence will
keep temperatures fairly warm in the low to middle 90s. However...this
subsidence will also result in weaker lapse rates and increased
capping throughout the atmospheric column. As a result...overall rain
chances will be lower than normally seen at around 20 to 30 percent.
Rain chances will be greatest near the seabreeze front in the Florida
Panhandle counties and coastal Alabama counties. Rain chances will be
much lower farther inland where the lack of low level forcing and
capping aloft will inhibit cloud development.

Conditions look to change considerably heading into Tuesday and
Wednesday...as a fairly strong upper level vorticity lobe slides down from
the midwestern states. As this upper level energy dives to the
south...it will deepen a trough that has been persisting over the
Great Lakes and northeast. The combination of increasing lapse rates
aloft...increased forcing associated with the deepening trough...and
ample low level heat and moisture...expect to see higher rain
chances redevelop over the area on Tuesday. Overall rain chances
should increase to around 50 percent and remain elevated on Wednesday
as well as the same pattern is expected to continue. Another weak
front will then slide into the area on Thursday and stall along the
coast on Friday. This will keep a more unsettled weather pattern in
place with higher than average probability of precipitation. Temperatures will remain
seasonably warm...with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s
expected through the extended period. Heat index readings should be
somewhat lower due to the expected precipitation coverage and cloud
cover resulting from the thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions will be found at all of the terminals through the
period. Some scattered convection has developed...but is fairly far
from the terminals at this hour. However...have kept a tempo group in
for kbfm and kmob through the evening hours...as the hrrr continues
to show some potential development through around 02z. If a storm
passes over a terminal...a period of an hour or less of IFR
restrictions and strong gusty winds could occur. The risk of
convection is lower tomorrow as some drier air advects in from the
north.

&&

Marine...

A fairly benign weather pattern will continue over the coastal waters
through the period. Winds will be variable through the weekend...with
the seabreeze dominating the overall wind field. As a result...an
offshore component to the wind can be expected during the overnight
and early morning hours...and an onshore component can be expected
from late morning through the afternoon hours. The wind field will
become more dominated by a westerly flow of 10 knots or less next
week. Seas of 2 feet or less can be expected through the forecast
period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 77 94 73 93 75 / 30 30 20 20 20
Pensacola 78 91 75 92 77 / 30 30 20 20 30
Destin 81 88 77 91 79 / 30 30 30 30 30
Evergreen 74 94 71 94 74 / 30 20 05 20 10
Waynesboro 73 94 71 94 71 / 10 05 05 10 05
Camden 73 95 69 94 73 / 20 05 05 10 10
Crestview 78 92 75 94 74 / 30 40 20 30 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...heat advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Baldwin central-
Baldwin coastal-Baldwin inland-Butler-Choctaw-Clarke-
Conecuh-Covington-Crenshaw-Escambia-Mobile central-Mobile
coastal-Mobile inland-Monroe-Washington-Wilcox.

Florida...heat advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Escambia coastal-
Escambia inland-Okaloosa coastal-Okaloosa inland-Santa Rosa
coastal-Santa Rosa inland.

MS...heat advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for George-Greene-
Perry-stone-Wayne.

GM...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations