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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
435 am CDT sun Aug 31 2014

Short term [today and tonight]...western extent of Bermuda ridge
stretching from the western Atlantic to the north central Gulf will
continue to build west through tonight as dampening short wave trough
over the middle to upper MS River Valley continues to lift north. To
the east latest satellite and regional radar loops show a fairly
large area of organized convection moving west over the northeast
Gulf associated with a weak surface trough moving off the west Florida coast
earlier in the evening. This area of better moisture convergence and
forcing will continue to move west over the adjacent Gulf waters
also skirting the immediate coast before shifting inland later in
the day with afternoon heating and seabreeze circulations. As a
result the best chance for measurable rain looks to be over the
adjacent Gulf waters of the western Florida Panhandle early today
transitioning inland mostly east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon
and possibly early tonight. Compared to yesterday latest model
soundings depict weaker lapse rates and instability limiting the
growth and intensity with this afternoons convection. Mostly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms should weaken or end
quickly by sunset with clearing skies overnight and early Monday
morning. Some patchy fog both this morning and Monday morning near
sunrise will also be possible. As for temperatures with less clouds than
yesterday will lean towards the warmer mav/met guidance for highs
today and adjust slightly for consistency with surrounding weather forecast offices.
With good moisture content in the lower levels through tonight will
continue to lean towards the warmer met/mav guidance for lows
tonight. Highs will climb to the middle 90s for most inland areas and
the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast...with lows in the
lower to middle 70s inland and the middle to upper 70s closer to the
coast. 32/ee

This afternoon's wet microburst risk will be moderate...mostly
inland from the coast east of the I-65 corridor.

Long term [monday through sunday] upper level ridge will
gradually build westward through the week. This will lead to a lower
coverage of showers and thunderstorms through middle week.
However...enough deep layer moisture will remain present for a
typical Summer time pattern with isolated to scattered diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms increase late in the week into next weekend as the
global models continue to indicate a tropical wave moving across the
area. Temperatures will generally be in the low to middle 90s through
the week with lows in the low to middle 70s away from the coast...upper
70s near the coast. /13


Aviation [31.12z issuance]...mostly VFR conditions through 01.12z.
Could see a brief period of MVFR conditions mainly in and around
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring mostly in
the afternoon and early evening. Winds will be mostly south
increasing to 6 to 9 knots through late morning and this afternoon
diminishing to 3 to 5 knots this evening and overnight. 32/ee


Marine...a surface ridge of high pressure will continue to become
better established across the north central Gulf through the middle
of the upcoming week. A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly
flow will persist through midweek with higher winds and waves
occurring over the near shore waters during the late afternoon and
evening hours...due mostly to an afternoon seabreeze generated from
daytime heating. Seas will continue to subside slowly due to the
better fetch length this round stretching well offshore. Winds and
seas will continue to be higher near isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms through the forecast period. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 91 75 93 75 93 / 20 10 20 10 20
Pensacola 90 77 92 77 92 / 30 10 20 10 20
Destin 88 79 90 78 91 / 30 20 20 10 20
Evergreen 95 72 95 72 95 / 30 20 20 10 20
Waynesboro 93 72 94 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
Camden 95 71 95 72 94 / 20 20 20 10 20
Crestview 93 71 95 73 95 / 30 20 20 10 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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