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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1056 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Aviation...
02/06z taf issuance...VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. More
convection possible Sunday afternoon...again mainly along the coast.
Light northerly winds overnight will turn southerly by Sunday
afternoon. /22

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 957 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/

Short term update...isolated showers and a few thunderstorms along
and east of Greenville Alabama to Navarre Beach Florida line have
persisted through middle evening. This activity should diminish by
midnight or shortly thereafter across the inland areas as depicted by
nearly all the short term models. Infrared satellite imagery showing clear
to mostly clear skies across the region...except for pockets of
broken to overcast cloud coverage associated with the ongoing
convection. Updated grids and forecast products to reflect a
lower precipitation coverage through the remainder of the evening
along and southeast of I-65. Kept dry conditions across the
remainder of the forecast area. Also updated to end all chances of
precipitation after midnight. All other weather elements are trending
as forecast. Updates sent. /22

Previous discussion... /issued 414 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/

Short term [tonight through sunday]...weak quasi-stationary frontal
boundary is expected to linger along the Gulf Coast region for the
remainder of the weekend. Satellite and current surface observations
indicate that the boundary currently extends southwest from The Big
Bend area of Florida out over the northern and central Gulf of
Mexico. GFS and European model (ecmwf) both in fairly good agreement with this
boundary lingering over the northern Gulf tonight and lifting
slightly north to the coast (or just inland) during the day on
Sunday. Slightly cooler and noticeably drier airmass north of the
boundary...with dewpoints currently in the low to middle 60s many
interior locations and upper 60s and lower 70s down toward the coast
with daytime mixing. Dewpoints will likely rebound slightly
tonight...but still remain dry enough that overnight min temperatures will
again be in the upper 60s and low 70s inland and middle 70s closer to
the coast. Maximum temperatures on Sunday similar (maybe a degree or two
warmer)to today...with highs in the low to middle 90s south and middle 90s
north. Showers and storms early this evening over eastern and
coastal portions of the forecast area expected to end shortly after
sunset...and then on Sunday with the frontal boundary only lifting
slightly back to the north...rain chances will again be highest
coastal and eastern portions of the forecast area. 12/ds

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is moderate.

[Sunday night and monday]...the area remains on the eastern periphery
of the expansive middle and upper level ridge situated across the western
half of the Continental U.S. Through the short term forecast. High pressure begins
building into the Gulf with a weak boundary draped across the southern
portion of the area. This will re-establish a southerly flow across the
southern half of the area.

Drier air across the northern half of the area...especially west of
the I-65 corridor...will continue to suppress any convection through
the early part of the work week. Southerly flow will allow moisture
to spread across the coast and areas east of the I-65 corridor. This
moisture combined with the weak boundary will keep the best chances
for convection east of I-65...predominantly confined to the coastal
counties. Lower dewpoints...especially across the northern half of
the area...will bring much needed relief from the humidity as heat
indices will only top out in the 99-104 range on Monday. 07/mb

Long term [tuesday through friday]...middle and upper level ridging
across the western half of the Continental U.S. Begins to flatten by middle week.
As the surface ridge continues to build across the Gulf and a weak
boundary wavers back and forth across the area...more moisture will
stream into the area. Dewpoints begin surging back into the middle 70s
and rain chances rise into the 30-40 percent range area-wide...
although expect convection to remain focused across the southeastern
half of the area.

Daytime highs will continue to trend downward...topping out in the
low 90s by weeks end. Higher dewpoints will yield heat indices in
the 102-105 range on Tuesday...and slightly lower through the
remainder of the week...in the 99-103 range. Overnight temperatures
will continue to sound like a broken record with middle to low 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast. 07/mb

Marine...quasi-stationary weak frontal boundary over the northern
Gulf this weekend will weaken further and lift north into the
southeastern states by early next week...with a high pressure ridge
then building over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of
the week. With this...a light and somewhat variable wind flow over
the marine area this weekend will become more consistent out of the
southwest for most of next week...and increase slightly to moderate
at times (especially near shore during the afternoon hours).
Generally small seas (2 to 3 feet max) through forecast period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible over the marine area...especially
late afternoon and early morning. 12/ds

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 74 94 74 96 75 / 05 20 10 20 10
Pensacola 77 92 76 93 77 / 20 20 20 30 20
Destin 78 90 79 93 80 / 20 30 30 40 20
Evergreen 73 96 70 98 72 / 20 10 10 20 10
Waynesboro 69 97 70 98 73 / 05 00 05 05 05
Camden 71 96 68 97 72 / 05 00 05 05 05
Crestview 74 94 72 96 73 / 20 20 20 30 10

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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