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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
450 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Short term (today and tonight)...middle to upper trough of low pressure
over much of the eastern Continental U.S. And MS River Valley will remain
mostly stationary and maintain strength through tonight. At the surface
weak high pressure will continue over much of the northern Gulf and
central Gulf Coast region with better moisture return to the west
easing slowly to the east through tonight. Latest satellite loops
continue to show a large area of convection moving off the Texas/la
coast associated with a surface wave moving slowly east along a stalled
frontal boundary straddling the la/Texas coast. This surface wave is mostly
a reflection of a vigorous short wave rounding the base of main
upper trough leading to the better lift near the mouth of the Middle
River and points west this morning. With this pattern believe we
will see and increase in the middle to upper moisture over much of the
County warning forecast area today with better moisture in the lower levels affecting mainly
western and northern sections of the County warning forecast area later today through
tonight. As a result will continue to see an increased in middle to
high clouds for most of the County warning forecast area today and tonight and introduce
better coverage of precipitation mostly over western and northern sections
of the forecast area beginning later this morning continuing through
tonight. Latest model soundings depict better moisture advection
across the forecast area through tonight with limited instability in
the boundary layer during the afternoon and evening hours. As a
result believe most of the convection through tonight will be weak
accompanied by wind gusts mainly below 40 miles per hour combined with
occasionally cloud to ground lightning. As for temperatures will use a
blend of the current mav and European model (ecmwf) MOS guidance tweaking these
values down a degree or two mostly for consistency. Highs will range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s for most inland areas and the middle to
upper 80s near the coast. 32/ee

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is low.

For Saturday through Sunday night...the persistent longwave trough
over the eastern states strengthens somewhat through Sunday as a
series of shortwaves move through the upper trough. A weak surface
low near southwestern Louisiana dissipates by Sunday but a weak
frontal boundary/surface trough will linger near the northern Gulf
Coast. Abundant deep layer moisture remains over the area through
Sunday with precipitable water values near 2 inches. Will have good
chance probability of precipitation for Saturday trending higher to likely probability of precipitation over much of
the area on Sunday as the series of shortwaves lead to improving
deep layer lift over the area. Temperatures will be near seasonable
values. /29

Long term (monday through thursday)...the longwave trough over the
eastern states weakens to a weak upper trough over the region Tuesday
into Wednesday which persists through Thursday. Deep layer moisture
decreases somewhat over the interior area through Tuesday...then
recovers Wednesday into Thursday. The weak surface trough near the
coast finally dissipates by Tuesday as a surface ridge over the
central Gulf gradually strengthens allowing for a southerly flow to
become established over the region. Chance to good chance probability of precipitation on
Monday trend to chance probability of precipitation for most of the area by Tuesday
continuing into Thursday. Temperatures will be near seasonable
values on Monday then trend gradually warmer to slightly above
seasonable values through the period. /29


Aviation (12z issuance)...mostly VFR conditions through 02.12z.
Could see a brief period of MVFR conditions mostly in and around
isolated showers and thunderstorms later this morning continuing
through early this evening. Winds will be north at 3 to 6 knots this
morning becoming west to northwest at 6 to 8 knots this afternoon
and this evening then light and variable overnight and early Sat
morning. 32/ee


Marine...weak high pressure will continue over the marine area
through early next week as a persistent middle to upper trough of low
pressure remains mostly stationary over most of the eastern part of
the country including the central Gulf Coast and adjacent Gulf
waters. The upper trough will slowly weaken and shift through next
week allowing for a better chance for showers and thunderstorms each
day through midweek. Higher winds and seas will occur during the
afternoon and evening hours through next week due mostly to weak
seabreeze circulations generated from afternoon heating. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 89 70 91 72 90 / 30 20 50 40 60
Pensacola 89 73 91 74 90 / 20 10 50 30 50
Destin 88 78 89 76 88 / 10 10 50 30 40
Evergreen 91 69 91 70 90 / 30 20 50 30 60
Waynesboro 87 67 90 69 89 / 30 30 50 40 60
Camden 91 68 90 70 89 / 30 30 50 40 60
Crestview 93 69 92 70 91 / 20 10 50 30 60


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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