Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
403 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015
Short term [tonight through Monday afternoon]...a weak cold front
will move across the area this evening and stall offshore tonight.
The atmosphere is rather dry and no more than just an isolated
shower or storm is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
offshore late tonight as an area of low pressure develops across the
northern Gulf and moves east. As an upper low moves out of the
southwest and moves east during the day on Monday and the associated
surface low moves east...showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage from the south and west. An isolated strong storm is
possible late in the day as the storms to our west begin to move
into the area. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s
inland to upper 60s along the coast. Increasing clouds will hold
highs on Monday in the upper 70s and low 80s. /13
[monday night through Tuesday night]...another significant storm
system is expected to affect the region through the remainder of the
short term as an area of surface low pressure develops over the
western Gulf of Mexico on Monday and move east-northeast. A closed
upper low pressure area over the Texas Panhandle on Monday will move
very slowly eastward reaching the middle Mississippi River valley by
late Tuesday night...while a second upper low forming over the
northern plains on Tuesday dives southward. Moderate southerly winds
and increasing moisture will occur ahead of the low pressure
systems...with precipitable water values reaching between 1.4 to 1.7
inches. Highest sbcapes are expected to range from 1000 to 1800 j/kg
late Monday night and Tuesday...with 0-1km helicity values ranging
from 150 to 250 m2/s2. Some these storms could become strong and
possibly severe late Monday and Tuesday with the potential of
producing damaging winds...large hail and isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall will also be a threat...and expect widespread 1.5 to
2 inches south of a line from Wiggins Mississippi to Crestview
Florida...and widespread 1.0 to 1.5 inches north of the line.
Lows Monday night will range from 56 to 64 degrees inland areas...
and from 65 to 70 degrees across the coastal sections. High
temperatures on Tuesday Monday will mainly by in the 70s. Lows
Tuesday night will be cooler ranging from 53 to 58 degrees along and
west of I-65...and from 59 to 64 degrees southeast of I-65. /22
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...the forecast area comes
under Post system northerly flow...bringing in cooler air and some
Post-frontal stratus/rain on Wednesday. Temperatures will be well below
seasonal values through midweek.
The disorganized upper dynamics move off and surface high pressure
moves over the southeastern Continental U.S. Wednesday night into Friday.
Drier...cooler air moves over the forecast area...with temperatures
remaining below seasonal for this period of the forecast.
A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf Coast through
the weekend...with onshore flow restored to the area...moisture
levels are on the increase and temperatures moderate back towards seasonal
26.18z kmob/kbfm and kpns taf cycle...
VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Patchy MVFR ceilings
and visbys possible late tonight into Monday morning. /13
Marine...a light southwest flow will become easterly and increase
on Monday as an area of low pressure develops over the northern Gulf
and moves east through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage Monday into Tuesday as the low approaches. A
strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of the low on
Wednesday. A moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through
the end of the week. /13
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 65 80 65 79 56 / 20 40 70 60 20
Pensacola 67 79 68 77 60 / 20 40 80 60 20
Destin 69 76 69 79 64 / 20 30 80 70 20
Evergreen 61 79 61 79 58 / 10 20 40 70 50
Waynesboro 60 78 58 70 53 / 10 30 50 70 50
Camden 59 78 58 73 56 / 10 10 30 70 60
Crestview 63 83 64 81 60 / 20 30 60 70 30