Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
508 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Short term [today and tonight]...deep high pressure will build west
over the northern Gulf states through tonight as an upper trough to
the north shifts east. This pattern will lead to better subsidence
in the middle to upper levels of the boundary layer leading to mostly
sunny skies and slightly warmer daytime temperatures. With a light onshore
developing by late in the day...adding slightly better low level
moisture to the region...combined with better subsidence aloft and a
better chance to decouple in the lower levels overnight mostly over
land areas north of the coast we could see some patchy radiation fog
overnight and early Tuesday morning. As for temperatures will use a blend of
the current mav and met guidance through tonight. Highs will range
from the middle to upper 70s for most areas with lows tonight ranging
from the middle to upper 40s for most inland areas generally north of
the I-10 corridor and the lower to middle 50s further south to the
coast. 32/ee

[tuesday and wednesday]...large upper low pressure area centered
over the Great Lakes region will move southeast on Tuesday and then
lift northeast on Wednesday. The axis of an upper level ridge
exiting the plains states early Tuesday will reach the Mississippi
River valley by late Wednesday night. Surface low pressure area
across the southeast Great Lakes region will move southeast over the
western Atlantic on Tuesday and then deepen as it moves north toward
Long Island on Wednesday. A light northerly wind flow will persist
through the remainder of the short term. Skies will be mostly clear
with a continuation of dry conditions.

High temperatures on Tuesday will range from 77 to 82 degrees. Lows
Tuesday night will range from 46 to 52 degrees inland areas...and
from 53 to 58 degrees along the coastal sections. High temperatures
on Wednesday will be slightly cooler...ranging from 74 to 79 degrees.
Lows Wednesday night will range from 39 to 47 degrees inland
areas...and from 48 to 54 degrees along the coastal sections. /22

Long term [thursday through monday]...the upper ridge will shift
east over the eastern Continental U.S. On Thursday...followed by an upper level
shortwave moving southeast over the region on Friday. Upper high
pressure will rebuild over the region over the weekend. Surface low
pressure area across the southern Gulf region will drift east as
high pressure remains across the southeast states through the
weekend...with mostly clear skies and dry conditions continuing.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday will range from 75 to 80
degrees. High temperatures over the weekend will range from 77 to 82
degrees. Low temperatures Thursday and Friday nights will range from
42 to 48 degrees inland areas...and from 49 to 55 degrees along the
coastal sections. Low temperatures over the weekend will range from
48 to 55 degrees inland areas...and from 55 to 59 degrees along the
coastal sections. /22


20.12z kmob/kbfm and kpns taf cycle
mostly VFR conditions through 21.12z. Could see a brief period of
MVFR visibilities between 21.09z and 21.13z. Winds will be mostly
north at 3 to 5 knots through middle afternoon today shifting south by
late afternoon and early evening then becoming light and variable
this evening and overnight. 32/ee


Marine...high pressure will strengthen over the lower Mississippi
River valley and north central Gulf through midweek leading to a
light to moderate northeast wind flow over the marine area through
early Friday. Winds and seas will build over the weekend in response
to a developing area of low pressure tracking eastward over the
southern Gulf combined with a deep ridge of high pressure building
over the western Gulf. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 79 52 80 54 78 / 00 05 00 05 05
Pensacola 79 54 80 57 77 / 00 05 00 05 00
Destin 78 56 80 59 76 / 05 05 05 05 00
Evergreen 76 47 80 46 76 / 00 05 00 05 00
Waynesboro 77 46 80 46 77 / 00 05 00 05 05
Camden 77 48 79 46 74 / 00 05 00 05 05
Crestview 78 50 82 48 78 / 00 05 00 05 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations