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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
28.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY NOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM NWS MOBILE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SKIES
ARE SUNNY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH COOL
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE 
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY 
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 
THE NIGHT...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE... 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE 
COAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...SO WE 
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME 
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO....AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL 
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. /21 

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVER THE FA...EVERYTHING IS
PRETTY STATIC....WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ALSO...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG RETURNING TO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DENSE FOG EVENT...NO...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
FORECAST PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE US/MEX BORDER...MOVES FROM OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX. WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA...SHRA BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF THE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT TOWARDS US MOVES OFF...THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGINS TO WASH OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER NW-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT MOST OF THE FA REMAINS RAIN
FREE. TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CREATE A PLEASANT
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR THE FA./

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEEK FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FA...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA...ALONG WITH REMOVING ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE GFS ADVERTISES THE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STRETCHES SW. RESULT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA FOR MID WEEK...WITH A BIT
OF A DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY...SEASONABLY WARM END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER BAYS...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...
BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  59  42  69  53 /  00  00  00  00  05 
PENSACOLA   36  58  43  68  55 /  00  00  00  00  05 
DESTIN      38  57  43  65  55 /  00  00  00  00  05 
EVERGREEN   31  56  32  68  46 /  00  00  00  00  05 
WAYNESBORO  29  58  34  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05 
CAMDEN      30  57  35  68  48 /  00  00  00  00  05 
CRESTVIEW   31  58  29  68  44 /  00  00  00  00  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM... 

&&

$$

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