AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A BROAD AND WEAK MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE 700-500
MB TROUGH IS JUST TO OUR EAST...WITH WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OUT OF THE
N-NW. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES WELL INLAND TO 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (30-40%)
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...STARTING OFF ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO AN ISOLATED
STRONG PULSE STORM IS POSSIBLE. THIS AFTERNOON'S PRELIMINARY WET
MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
DID NOT DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 34/JFB
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
GENERAL MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE TROF => A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS. WILL HAVE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
20 TO 30% OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LOOKS TO NOT BE AS HIGH (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING 1.5").
DAILY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S
INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10
.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A WEAK 700-500 MB TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND WEAK COASTAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY OCCUR DURING THE DAY WHEN
HIGHER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAY BECOME A
BIT BETTER DEFINED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK FROM TEXAS...EASTWARD
INTO FLORIDA. IT IS THEN...WE LOOK TO BE GETTING INTO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME CONVECTIVE MODE. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING RIDGE...DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE HEADING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMBERS AROUND 89 OR SO
EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE GULF KEEP
DAILY TEMPERATURES MORE MODIFIED THERE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THE OUTLOOK. /10
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANY
STRATUS OR FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS
AND/OR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
SFC TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREA
BAYS DURING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EAST/NORTHEAST WIND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 90 70 90 71 89 / 30 10 20 20 30
PENSACOLA 89 73 89 74 88 / 40 20 30 20 30
DESTIN 88 75 87 76 87 / 30 20 20 20 30
EVERGREEN 91 67 92 69 89 / 30 10 20 20 30
WAYNESBORO 91 67 92 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 30
CAMDEN 91 67 91 69 89 / 20 10 10 10 30
CRESTVIEW 92 67 92 70 90 / 40 10 30 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
