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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/ 

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO 
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE 
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE 
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A 
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER 
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF 
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE 
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING 
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF 
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE 
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN 
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD 
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR 
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS 
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND 
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES 
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND 
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT 
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE 
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE 
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY 
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A 
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH 
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE 
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  80  55  76  51 /  05  00  05  00  05 
PENSACOLA   53  80  56  76  56 /  05  00  05  00  05 
DESTIN      57  80  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05 
EVERGREEN   48  79  48  74  43 /  05  00  05  00  05 
WAYNESBORO  47  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05 
CAMDEN      49  79  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05 
CRESTVIEW   51  81  50  76  45 /  05  00  05  00  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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