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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH A 
FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A 
COMPLEX HIGH LEVEL PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL 
ENERGY WAS DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A 
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS TRACKING SLOWLY EAST 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
HAS MOVED TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH A FRONTAL 
ZONE EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRENGTHENING UPPER 
LEVEL JET STREAM DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS 
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
TODAY...TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO 
ASCENT WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT SHOWS MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. 
THUS...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM. 
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO FAVORS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RUMBLES OF 
THUNDER MIXED IN AT TIMES. THE LATEST WIND PROFILE FORECASTS 
INDICATE VEERING IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET TODAY...THAT WHEN COMBINED 
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS 
OVER THE INTERIOR COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE 
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF 
THESE. SOMETHING FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING THROUGH THE COURSE OF 
THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES...STRENGTHENING 
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN RESPONSE TO THE 
APPROACHING FRONT...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST 
TODAY. ALMOST SPRINGLIKE TOO WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM 67 TO 70 
ON AVERAGE. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE HIGH TIDAL RANGES 
ALSO FAVORS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP 
CURRENTS TODAY.

COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS A LOWERING TREND TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ON MONDAY AS THE 
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY 
TUESDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY WEAKENING TO 1027MB. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY 
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE 
DRY MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE CENTER OF THE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING 
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS. OVER-RUNNING IN THE 
LOW LEVELS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING 
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY 
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 46 
TO 51 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 51 TO 57 DEGREES 
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL OCCUR 
MONDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM 26 TO 31 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 
31 TO 35 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES 
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 52 TO 56 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...1027MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SURFACE LOW 
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. 
THE ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND EASTWARD 
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND PLACES THE 
LOW ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY 
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH 
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A 
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING CAN BE RESOLVED.

WILL START OFF WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED COLD RAIN SPREADING EAST 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN 
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. THE 
RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND COOLER DRIER AIR 
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO 
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW 
TRACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES 
OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND WE EXPECT BETWEEN 0.5 AND 
0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN 
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS 
RANGING FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY...52 TO 58 DEGREES ON 
THURSDAY...50 TO 55 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND FROM 56 TO 59 DEGREES ON 
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND 
FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22 

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH CIG BASES AT MID TO HIGH 
LEVELS. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER...GENERALLY TO MVFR 
CATEGORIES...THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND RAIN SHOWERS 
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 
KNOTS CAUSING HAZARDS FOR APPROACHES/DEPARTURES. COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE BRINGS A WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 02.06Z TO 02.10Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 
TODAY AND MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...BECOMES NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS TRENDING HIGHER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SEAS LOWER. A WAVE 
OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ABOUT 200 MILES OFF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTH TO 
NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF 
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. SEAS TREND HIGHER ON THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A 
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND TRACK OF 
THIS LOW ON THIS THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  43  52  29  54 /  70  70  05  00  00 
PENSACOLA   70  48  55  32  54 /  80  80  10  00  00 
DESTIN      67  52  57  35  52 /  80  80  10  00  00 
EVERGREEN   69  44  49  27  55 /  80  80  05  00  00 
WAYNESBORO  67  41  48  26  55 /  70  70  05  00  00 
CAMDEN      67  42  47  26  54 /  80  80  05  00  00 
CRESTVIEW   70  49  53  29  55 /  80  80  10  00  00 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... 

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA... 

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI 
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY... 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 
     60 NM... 

&&

$$

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