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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 
956 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. LAST OF THE VERY EARLY 
EVENING TSRA HAVE WENT AWAY...WITH NOTHING SHOWING ON RADAR. TEMP 
CURVE ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
08.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ 

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG DUE TO DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SIMILAR PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE COAST LIKEWISE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
EACH DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH NIGHT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES BY THURSDAY AS AN EASTERLY 850-700
MB FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO
NEAR 90 AT THE COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR
MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW STORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT OVER INTERIOR AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-104 CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND PLAINS...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE LONGWAVE RIDGE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND EASTERN STATES BY SATURDAY. THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS AS A
WELL DEFINED UPPER TROF EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS WESTWARD WHILE A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN STATES TROF REINFORCES A SURFACE TROF
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH THE
SURFACE TROF WILL BE TOO FAR EAST OF THE AREA TO HAVE A SIZABLE
IMPACT. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO LOWER
90S/NEAR 90 AT THE COAST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY 102-105 BUT
POSSIBLY NEAR 107 IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WITH LOW SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  93  72  91  71 /  05  20  10  40  10 
PENSACOLA   76  92  75  90  74 /  05  20  10  30  10 
DESTIN      78  91  77  89  77 /  05  10  10  30  10 
EVERGREEN   73  95  71  94  71 /  05  20  10  40  10 
WAYNESBORO  72  94  71  94  72 /  05  10  10  20  10 
CAMDEN      73  95  71  95  72 /  05  10  10  30  10 
CRESTVIEW   74  95  70  93  70 /  05  20  10  30  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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