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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1158 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06z issuance...VFR ceiling and visibility conditions should occur
through 00z. Low level clouds around 3000 to 3500 feet moving
northward over the Gulf of Mexico will move inland along the
northern Gulf Coast tonight. MVFR ceiling conditions are expected
due to this increase in low level cloud coverage...from late
Wednesday afternoon and evening. /22


Previous discussion... /issued 1000 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/

Discussion...see updated information for land areas below.

Update...temperatures across the forecast have already dropped into
the low to middle 40s this evening across the inland areas. There have
been a few reports of upper 30s as well as most clouds have cleared
the area. Temperatures along the coastal sections have managed to
lower into the middle 40s to lower 50s where easterly winds are slightly
higher. Updated the grids and public products for nearly steady or
slightly falling temperatures through the remainder of the night. /22

Previous discussion... /issued 400 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/

Near term /now through Wednesday/...a surface ridge stretching SW
along the eastern Seaboard remains stubbornly entrenched east of the
Appalachians. With westerly flow in the middle levels...winds above the
surface quickly become southeast then southerly as one rises above
the surface...with moderate moisture influx in the 900-500mb layer
overnight through Wednesday. Guidance is advertising this influx
strongest over the southwestern third of the area and along the have went with increased clouds and warmer temperatures
overnight into Wednesday as opposed to northeastern portions of the
area. With a tight pressure gradient along and south of the
coast...have put in some dynamically driven rain showers in...mainly over the
marine portion of the forecast area.

With moderate to strong easterly winds along the
expecting an increasing chance of rip currents and an increasing
surf along the coast. Not enough to warrant an advisory or warning
at this time...but with this strong moderate to strong easterly flow to
continue through the week...advisories may be needed later. /16

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...upper ridging
gradually amplifies over the southeast states through Thursday night
while a massive cut off low evolves over the western states. At the
same time...another large cut off upper low develops over the western
Atlantic resulting in a rather amplified pattern from the western
states to the western Atlantic. The upper low over the western states
continues to expand in size to a point beyond what this
meteorologist can recall seeing before...with upper ridging over the
southeast states weakening slightly meanwhile. An intense surface
ridge over the southeast states results in a breezy easterly flow
mainly near beach areas through at least Thursday night before
weakening Friday into Friday night. This will likely result in heavy
surf and a high risk of rip currents through Thursday
night...possibly into Friday...and is highlighted in the hazardous
weather outlook. Dry conditions continue over the forecast area
through the period. Highs will be mostly in the lower 70s. Lows
Wednesday night will range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at
the coast...then trend gradually warmer by Friday night to range from
the middle 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. /29

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...upper ridging over the
southeast states breaks down leaving an easterly flow over the
forecast area through Tuesday as the huge upper low over the western
states advances slowly eastward to the Great Lakes region. A surface
high over the southeast states stubbornly persists through Saturday
night while a surface low over the arklatex moves to the Ohio River
valley and brings a trailing cold front to the lower Mississippi
River valley. The surface ridge over the area slowly yields to the
approaching cold front which is expected to eventually moves through
the area Tuesday night. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation gradually return
to the area by Sunday with chance probability of precipitation across the entire area by
Monday as the slow moving frontal boundary approaches...with similar
probability of precipitation continuing into Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 70s for the
eastern portion of the area through the period...and trending over
the western portion from the lower 70s to the lower 60s by Tuesday as
the front nears the area. Overnight lows will mostly range from the
middle 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. /29

Marine...a surface ridge apposed to the eastern Seaboard will
remain entrenched through the week...with a moderate to strong
easterly flow expected through the week and the weekend. This will
bring exercise caution to Small Craft Advisory level winds and seas
into Saturday before an approaching surface boundary weakens the
easterly flow late Saturday into Sunday. /16


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Friday for gmz631-632-650-

Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Friday for gmz670-675.



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