Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
711 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Marine...did a quick update to the current marine forecast mostly to
reflect current wave conditions over inland bays and sounds along
with slight changes to wind direction and speed for the next few
hours. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of tonight and during the day on Monday.


Previous discussion... /issued 640 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/

00z issuance...stubborn area of rain will continue to affect
mainly southwestern quarter of the area into the evening hours
before finally ending. Rest of the night will see local drops in
visbys to MVFR levels...especially in areas that have saw decent rain
today. With the area under a less favorable position of a passing
shortwave Monday...only a few afternoon thunderstorms and rain are expected.


Short term (tonight and monday) upper level trough across the
southeastern Continental U.S. Will persist through the next 24 hours. The low
pressure center embedded in the upper trough situated over eastern
Kentucky will lift northeast and evolve into and open shortwave.
Upper disturbances moving through the base of the upper trough will
traverse over the forecast area through Monday afternoon. The
surface high pressure ridge extending from the western
Atlantic...across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico
will remain intact while surface outflow boundaries from ongoing
convection over much of the forecast area move southeastward.

Ongoing strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with gusty straight
line winds...frequent cloud to ground lightning and periods of very
heavy rain will weaken and further dissipate through the early
evening hours. However...will maintain scattered probability of precipitation across the
entire forecast area tonight through Monday afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 67 to 71 degrees inland
areas and from 71 to 75 degrees along the immediate coastal
sections. High temperatures Monday will range from 86 to 92 degrees.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...surface and upper ridging will
build into the region on Tuesday through the end of the week. This
will drop rain chances back to a more typical diurnal summertime
pattern through the extended period. Along with the lower rain
chances...temperatures will also climb as the ridge builds. Highs will be
back into the low and middle 90s. As a result...heat index values will
rise back to around 100 by middle week. Overnight lows will remain
muggy with low 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. /13

Marine...showers and thunderstorms will continue over the marine
area tonight. Strong gusty winds...frequent lightning and locally
higher seas can be expected with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. Outflow from storms could result in increased wind shifts
over portions of the marine area. Otherwise...a light to moderate
south to southwest wind flow will persist over the marine area
through the middle of next week as a surface ridge of high pressure
continues to stretch from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 88 71 90 74 91 / 80 30 30 05 20
Pensacola 87 73 88 76 90 / 80 30 40 20 20
Destin 85 74 87 78 88 / 80 20 40 20 20
Evergreen 86 67 91 72 93 / 80 40 40 20 20
Waynesboro 87 69 92 72 93 / 80 30 30 10 20
Camden 86 69 91 72 92 / 80 40 40 20 20
Crestview 89 67 91 72 92 / 80 30 50 20 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations