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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1200 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Aviation...
30.06z terminal forecast discussion...
VFR conditions will generally be prevalent through the forecast
period though there could be brief periods of MVFR ceilings and fog
through early Monday morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will
develop across the region Monday ahead of an approaching front. A few
storms could be strong with hail and gusty winds. /21

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 926 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/

Update...the overall forecast tonight is in good shape and no
significant changes are anticipated. Overnight low temperatures still
look on track to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s inland to the
middle 50s to around 60 near the coast.

02z surface analysis shows a cold front stretching from west and
North Texas northeastward through central portions of OK/southeast Kansas
and into the upper midwestern states. The latest short term guidance
indicates that this feature will push southward and will extend into
the south central portions of MS/al/GA by late Monday afternoon. The
latest NAM forecast soundings continue to show an increasingly
unstable airmass across our forecast area Monday afternoon...with
MLCAPE values rising to around 1000 j/kg...and perhaps locally
enhanced between 1500-2000 j/kg near the surface boundary and the
seabreeze Monday afternoon. Deep layer shear will average between
30-40 knots in the 0-6 km layer. Although deep layer moisture will
be limited and upper forcing rather weak...enough buoyancy along the
approaching boundary will be sufficient for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across our region. With fairly low wet bulb zero
heights between 7500-9500 feet above ground level and 700-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 7-7.5 c/km...a few storms could strengthen to severe
limits with large hail and gusty winds along the boundaries. We have
updated the severe weather potential statement to add mention of the strong to marginally severe
storm potential Monday. /21

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 58 80 58 80 61 / 05 20 20 20 10
Pensacola 56 79 61 79 64 / 05 30 20 20 10
Destin 57 74 62 76 65 / 05 30 20 20 20
Evergreen 51 81 54 81 59 / 05 40 20 30 30
Waynesboro 55 80 55 82 58 / 10 30 20 20 30
Camden 52 78 53 81 58 / 10 50 20 30 30
Crestview 49 82 57 82 61 / 05 30 20 30 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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