Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
652 PM CDT sun may 24 2015
25/00z issuance...a moderate southerly wind of 11 to 15 knots with
occasional higher gusts to near 25 knots will occur over the next 24
hours. This will result in persistent scattered to broken low cloud
layers of 1500 to 2500 feet...especially near scattered showers
overnight...and numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly from
daybreak Monday through early Monday afternoon. Visibilities due to
rain should mostly drop to MVFR criteria...with very brief periods to
LIFR criteria possible. /22
Previous discussion... /issued 407 PM CDT sun may 24 2015/
..thunderstorm chances trend higher moving into Memorial Day...
..High risk of rip currents through Memorial Day across area
Short term (tonight through Monday night)...moderate onshore flow
will continue to create scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over mainly land portions
of the forecast area into this evening before settling. As a piece of upper
energy passes northwest of the forecast area later tonight into Monday...am
expecting coverage and strength to increase. Wind shear will be
limited(generally less than <100 m^2/s^2). Cape on the other
hand...with values starting out this evening at or above
1500j/lg...an isolated strong to severe storm is possible. Am
expecting this to continue into Memorial Day...then ease. Model
soundings become less impressive...wind-shear wise. Instability
decreases...though remains high enough for isolated strong to severe
storms to pop up.
For the forecast...have kept the trend of overnight temperatures above
seasonal...mainly upper 60s to low 70s. For Memorial Day...with best
coverage of rain expected to be over western portions of the forecast area...
feel temperatures in the low 80s is warranted. As one moves east...highs in
the upper 80s expected.
On the coastal front...with moderate to at times strong onshore
flow...a high risk of rip currents continues. /16
Monday night...expecting widespread afternoon showers and
storms to continue through much of the early evening. With deep Gulf
moisture entrenched across the area...heavy downpours in stronger
storms could lead to nuisance flooding. Do not expect any widespread
flooding issues. Main threats will continue to be gusty winds and
frequent cloud to ground lightning with any stronger storms.
Overnight temperatures will range from low 70s along the coast to
upper 60s generally north of the Highway 84 corridor. 07/mb
Long term (tuesday through sunday)...the amplified upper level
pattern is expected to continue through much of the extended
forecast as an upper level trough slides east into the plains
and...closer to home...ridging persists across much of the middle
Atlantic with high pressure generally east of the area. The
approaching trough will keep the onshore flow and deep Gulf moisture
entrenched across the region...meaning an increase in showers and
storms through Wednesday. With this in mind...have kept probability of precipitation likely
across the entire area Tuesday and across the northwestern zones...
primarily north and west of the I-65 corridor...overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday afternoon. Any stronger storms that form will be
efficient heavy rain producers with forecasted precipitable water
values running around 1.6 to 2 inches. Risk of severe storms is
low...however cannot rule it out completely.
Beyond Wednesday...probability of precipitation taper off and trend more seasonal with
afternoon rain chances persisting during the remainder of the
extended forecast. Scattered afternoon and early evening sea breeze
storms expected to enter back into the forecast and continue through
the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected during this
time frame. Gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning will
continue to be the main threats with any stronger storms that form
in the afternoon hours.
Summer-like high temperatures remain through the extended forecast
.With highs in the middle to low 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday...
Transitioning into the upper 80s and even 90 in a few locations
Thursday through Sunday across inland areas. High temperatures along
the beaches will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the middle to
low 80s. Temperatures will only fall into the low 70s along the
beaches with upper 60s further inland overnight through the period.
Marine...moderate to strong onshore flow will continue into middle week
with a surface ridge stretching west over the southeastern Continental U.S..
some easing Wednesday through the rest of the week as the upper ridge
over the eastern Continental U.S. Shifts east...but winds are expected to remain
generally onshore into the coming weekend. /16
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 71 82 72 84 71 / 50 70 40 60 40
Pensacola 74 84 74 84 74 / 40 60 40 60 40
Destin 74 82 74 85 75 / 40 60 30 60 40
Evergreen 68 85 70 86 69 / 40 60 40 60 50
Waynesboro 68 80 69 84 69 / 40 60 40 70 60
Camden 68 84 68 86 68 / 40 60 50 70 60
Crestview 70 86 71 86 71 / 40 60 30 60 40
Alabama...high rip current risk through Tuesday afternoon for lower
Florida...high rip current risk through Tuesday afternoon for coastal
Escambia-coastal Okaloosa-coastal Santa Rosa.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for coastal
waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters
from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 20 nm-waters from
Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 nm.