Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1150 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Aviation...
22.06z taf issuance...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

Update...have lowered overnight lows a few degrees mainly across
extreme southwest Alabama. Remainder of forecast is on track. Update
out soon. /29

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 415 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/

Short term (tonight and wednesday)...surface high pressure ridge and
also a gradually building upper ridge remain dominant weather
features tonight and Wednesday. Under clear skies tonight expect
slightly below normal temperatures tonight over interior zones (upper
40s)...close to normal temperatures near the coast (mid to upper 50s). Near
normal for this time of the year maximum temperatures on Wednesday...ranging
from middle 70s over northern half of forecast area and upper 70s southern
half. Light (to occasionally moderate near the coast) north to
northeast winds expected tonight and Wednesday. 12/ds

(wednesday night through Thursday night)...expecting cool and dry
for the period. Precipitable water expected to average a quarter to
half an inch especially Thursday...going below a quarter inch at
times. Lifted index in the middle teens. Very stable dry atmosphere and
clear sky will prevail. Lows considerably cooler than the daily
mean...10 degrees on average. Used mav guidance with a few
adjustments but generally not much change from before.

Long term (friday through monday)...no changes to forecast. Our
weather continues to be cool and dry for the rest of this foreseeable
week. There is close phasing of the GFS and Euro outputs out to 96
hours...but then a 500 mb ridge is shown by the Euro lagging behind
the GFS by a couple of degrees of longitude out to 136 hours. There
is a deeply amplified trough extending from a 500 mb closed low over
the west Atlantic on Thursday... associated with a Nor'easter
indicated at the surface and dragging a front into our region. The
front will continue to move past through Friday as the surface low
occludes and moves into the Cape Cod region by Friday...and the Gulf
of Saint Lawrence Sunday. Additional disturbances will move along the
western side of the trough into the eastern Gulf states Friday into
Saturday. They will reinforce the dry air we now have with
precipitable water running a half inch or less through Friday. High
temperatures through the end of the week will be near normal in the middle to
upper 70s. Lows will trend a little cooler than normal and will lean
toward the cooler side of guidance through the end of the
week...resulting in lows well into the 40s across the forecast
area...except lower 50s along the beaches.

A gradual warm-up is expected over the weekend into early next week as
a large middle to upper ridge over the central states moves east. The
rising heights aloft will translate to high temperatures warming to a little
above normal with lows cooling to near normal levels given the very
dry airmass in place.

77/blowing dust

Marine...a high pressure ridge will continue to ridge into the
marine area from the north into the early part of the weekend. A
developing low over the southern Gulf is expected to move east toward
Cuba. These systems will combine to bring a moderate to occasionally
strong northeast wind flow to the marine area through late week and
into the weekend. Winds could be a little stronger than forecast if
the low intensifies a more than expected. Increasing swells from the
south possible if the low moves further north or is stronger than
currently forecast. 12/ds



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 54 78 47 75 49 / 00 05 00 00 00
Pensacola 57 79 49 75 53 / 00 05 00 00 00
Destin 64 77 60 72 56 / 00 05 00 00 00
Evergreen 48 75 41 74 42 / 00 05 00 00 00
Waynesboro 49 77 42 74 41 / 00 05 00 00 00
Camden 48 75 43 74 43 / 00 05 00 00 10
Crestview 46 77 43 76 43 / 00 05 00 00 00

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations