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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1133 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Aviation...
06z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Light
northerly winds switch to the southeast near 6-8 knots near midday
Friday. /29

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 903 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/

Update...current forecast is on track with no changes planned. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 619 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/

Aviation...
00z issuance...VFR conditions continue through the period with light
northerly winds becoming southeasterly on Friday. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/

Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)...for tonight through
Friday...a broad middle/upper level trough will remain across the area
through early Friday before gradually weakening and lifting out. A
cooler and much drier airmass with precipitable water values well under 1 inch will
continue through tonight. This will again allow for strong
radiational cooling tonight with lows falling to near record levels
again at Mobile (66). A light southerly flow will develop on
Friday...allowing moisture levels to slowly increase and temperatures to
warm back into the upper 80s and low 90s. An isolated shower is
possible during the afternoon across eastern portions of the
area...however the chance is too small to include in the forecast at
this time. /13

Friday night through Saturday night...a weakly organized upper low
over the forecast area opens and begins to shift north into Sunday. A strong
piece of energy swirling around the east side of the system works
with surface high pressure over the middle Atlantic region to push
northeastern Gulf/western Atlantic moisture inland over the eastern
half of the southeastern states. With the upper dynamics centered
over the forecast area initially Friday night...best chance for rain will be
over the eastern half of the forecast area...tapering off as one GOES west over
the forecast area. Have went such with the forecast. For temperatures...have went with
a tighter than seasonal temperature range over eastern portions of the forecast area
due to the high coverage of rain...greater than season west...with
less clouds/precip/moisture to contend with.

Long term...(sunday on)...Sunday through Sunday night...as Erika
moves from over the Caribbean and begins to move north along the Florida
Atlantic coast...the now upper trough over the forecast area gets pushed
westward. With the approach of Erika...the low level flow switches
to more easterly. Eastern portions of the forecast area remain the
wettest...with the highest moisture levels.

Monday through Wednesday...with the latest track of Erika leaning
towards the GFS solution...have continued to extrapolate that into
the expected. This solution moves Erika north along the Atlantic
Seaboard...with low level flow shifting from easterly to northerly,
the forecast area comes under suppressive flow west of Erika...with rain chances
decreasing and temperatures rising to a bit above seasonal.

Wednesday night through Thursday...the GFS is advertising Erika
slowing and meandering this time period over the Carolina
coast...keeping the forecast area under a less precipitation conducive regime. Still
have small chances for rain...but below seasonal. Temperatures remain a bit
above seasonal.

Marine...a weak flow pattern is expected through the weekend with
northerly flow at night followed by southerly flow during the
afternoon. An easterly flow is expected to develop early next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 66 89 69 88 69 / 00 05 10 30 20
Pensacola 70 88 72 86 71 / 00 05 20 50 30
Destin 74 87 73 85 75 / 00 05 30 50 40
Evergreen 65 92 67 88 70 / 00 05 20 40 40
Waynesboro 63 92 66 90 66 / 00 05 10 30 20
Camden 66 92 68 89 68 / 00 05 20 40 40
Crestview 64 90 67 86 71 / 00 10 20 50 40

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

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