Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
117 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Update...latest trends mainly for extreme northern sections of the
County warning forecast area continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing over
central parts of Alabama possible affecting areas along and north of a
line stretching from Butler to Andalusia in Alabama. These area to the
north are also under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
development with slightly higher chance further to the over central
part of the Alabama. Gusty straight line winds and large hail still look
to be the main threat wit the stronger thunderstorms developing wellto
the north late this afternoon continuing into the early to middle
evening hours. 32/ee


Aviation...31.18z issuance...VFR to MVFR ceilings through 01.06z
followed by IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities through 01.13z then
improving to MVFR to VFR ceilings through 01.18z. A stalled frontal
boundary mostly over central sections of Alabama and MS will continue to
be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop upon later
this afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Winds will continue
to southwest at 12 to 16 knots with gusts to 20 knots though early
this evening shifting west diminishing to 4 to 6 knots overnight and
early Wednesday then becoming southwest increasing to 12 to 16 knots by
late morning and early afternoon. Higher winds gust will be likely
later in the day. 32/ee


Marine...high pressure will continue over the eastern and north
central Gulf through Wednesday then slowly weaken from west to east
later in the week in response to a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Southerly winds and seas will build ahead of the front
late in the week followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow in
the wake of the front late Friday through Saturday morning. A
moderate to strong easterly flow is expected by late Sunday into
early next week as a strong surface ridge of high pressure builds
along the Carolina coast. Higher winds and waves will continue during
the afternoon and evening hours with the onshore flow through Friday due
to afternoon heating and seabreeze circulations. 32/ee


Previous discussion... /issued 649 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015/

Update...the forecast has been updated to include a dense fog
advisory for parts of the region through 9 am this morning. /13

Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015/

Short term (today through Thursday night)...for today and
tonight...a stationary front will remain parked just north of the
area today...keeping the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm
development across northern areas this afternoon. Increased ridging
will keep the southern portions of the area dry today. A few strong
storms are possible this afternoon as instability will increase with
highs warming in the low 80s. Cool middle level temperatures and low wet bulb
zero levels will favor large hail in the stronger cores. The greatest
threat of strong storms will be across northeastern zones near the
frontal boundary. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk
level for severe storms in these areas. The weak surface front will
remain near or just north of the area tonight. Due to the boundary in
place...a few showers or storms may linger across northern portions
of the area overnight. Patchy fog will again develop overnight with
light winds and increasing moisture in place. /13

For Wednesday through Thursday upper ridge over the
central states moves to near the East Coast Thursday afternoon while
a shortwave trough over Texas meanwhile likewise advances eastward and
moves across the extreme southeast states on Thursday. A weak stalled
frontal boundary will be present over central Alabama/Mississippi
Wednesday morning and dissipates during the day. A surface ridge
persists over the northern Gulf through the period with a light
southerly flow continuing over the area through Thursday night. Will
have slight chance to chance probability of precipitation over interior areas on Wednesday
near the dissipating frontal boundary with isolated convection
lingering into the evening hours. Slight chance probability of precipitation follow for
interior areas on Thursday due to modest isentropic lift. Daytime
highs will be about 8 degrees above normal and in the lower to middle
80s. Overnight lows will be similarly warm and range from the upper
50s inland to lower 60s closer to the coast Wednesday night...then
slightly warmer Thursday night. Any convection that develops both
days will be in an environment with dry middle level air...especially on strong storm development is possible with strong gusty
winds and primarily small hail the main threats. /29

Long term (friday through monday) upper trough advances across
the Central Plains and amplifies while moving across the interior
eastern states Friday night...later moving into the western Atlantic
on Saturday. A surface low well to the north associated with the
advancing upper trough brings a cold front into the southeast states
on Friday...which moves through the forecast area Friday night.
Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation mainly west of I-65 on Friday are
followed by chance to good chance probability of precipitation for most of the area Friday
night as the front moves through. Have gone with slight chance probability of precipitation
for Saturday for lingering light precipitation in the wake of the front then
dry conditions Saturday night. A surface high builds into the
southeast states in the wake of the front on Saturday then moves into
the Atlantic on Sunday allowing for a light return flow to ensue
which increases somewhat by Monday. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation
return by Monday due to moderate isentropic lift. /29

Marine...a broad surface ridge of high pressure will extend from
the western Atlantic through the north central Gulf through midweek.
A light to moderate southerly to southwesterly wind flow will
persist through Wednesday. Higher winds and seas will likely occur
during the afternoon and early evening hours through midweek due to
afternoon heating and local seabreeze effects. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms will also be possible mostly near shore and over
inland bays and sounds through midweek. /13

12z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
period. Patchy fog will develop late tonight into Wednesday morning
with MVFR/IFR conditions possible at times. /13


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 81 60 82 61 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
Pensacola 79 62 80 61 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
Destin 75 64 76 63 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
Evergreen 84 59 84 56 83 / 20 20 20 20 10
Waynesboro 82 58 83 60 83 / 10 20 20 20 20
Camden 82 58 84 57 83 / 30 30 30 20 20
Crestview 84 60 82 55 83 / 10 10 20 10 10


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations