Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1147 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

30.06z taf issuance...VFR ceiling conditions forecast overnight.
Possibility exists for the formation of mist (br) reducing visibility to
between 3 and 5 statute miles between 30.10-13z. Light southeast flow
overnight. /10


Previous discussion... /issued 643 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/

30.00z taf issuance...VFR conditions forecast this evening.
Possibility exists for the formation of mist (br) reducing visibility to
between 3 and 5 statute miles between 30.10-13z. Light southeast flow
this evening. /10

Tonight...convective coverage is isolated this evening and mostly
confined to the western half of the local area...enhanced slightly by
a middle level vorticity maximum slipping westward over southwest Mississippi. Eastern
areas have had less coverage due to the presence of an upper level
ridge. Probability of precipitation lowers to 10% or less after
midnight. Lows tonight will remain muggy with middle/upper 60s inland
and Lower/Middle 70s along the coast. /10

Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/

Short term (saturday)...a broad upper trough over the plains will
slowly advance eastward. Weak waves rotating through the trough will
continue to generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly during the afternoon on Saturday. The highest coverage will
again be west of Interstate 65 closer to influence from the upper
trough. Highs will be in the middle 80s across western zones and lower
90s across eastern zones. /13

Long term (saturday night through friday)...model trends continue to
support a wet...showery pattern through the forecast period. Showers
will increase in intensity and coverage during the day with surface
heating. Upper level trough overlying the area will keep at least a
slight chance threat of convection going overnight. Suspect the main
threat aside from lightning will be heavy rainfall potentially
causing some localized minor flooding issues. Best potential for
strong to isolated severe storms should be Sunday and Monday as a
weak stalled frontal boundary lingers over southeastern MS -
southwest Alabama...defining too the western edge of the deep moisture
pool overlying the region...extra lift aided by some dry air
intrusion could lead to near severe thunderstorm gust potential in an
otherwise unfavorable light sheer environment. By Monday afternoon
the 500 mb low is expected to cut off and begin drifting slowly
southwestward...this drift will allow the moisture pool to expand
further westward along with the weak surface boundary...taking any
potential severe threat with it. Patchy dense fog development is
likely overnight where heavy rainfall occurs during the day. Daytime
high temperatures will trend from the middle 80s to low 90s Sunday and
Monday and middle to upper 80s for the remainder of the week. Overnight
lows will fall into the upper 60s and low to middle 70s along and near
the coast. /08 jw

Marine...a ridge of high pressure will continue over the
southeastern states through early next week...maintaining a light to
moderate southeasterly flow over the marine area. Winds and seas will
be higher each afternoon due to the seabreeze and near isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. /13


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 68 87 68 85 68 / 10 20 10 40 30
Pensacola 71 87 70 86 70 / 10 20 10 20 20
Destin 74 85 75 82 76 / 10 20 10 20 20
Evergreen 67 90 67 89 68 / 10 20 20 30 40
Waynesboro 67 86 66 86 66 / 10 40 30 50 60
Camden 67 87 66 89 68 / 10 20 30 40 60
Crestview 65 91 68 88 69 / 10 20 10 20 30


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations