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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
443 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Short term [today through Sunday night]...a strong shortwave
currently over the Georgia/SC coast will quickly move east into the
southwest Atlantic through tonight. Meanwhile...a large middle to upper
ridge centered over Texas will gradually build east while a broad
surface ridge axis persists across the region. This all results in a
continuation of dry weather and clear skies. 1000-850mb thicknesses
are forecast to increase by 10 meters or so this afternoon which
corresponds to a 3-4 degree increase in highs compared to yesterday.
Most locations are expected to top out around 80. Lows drop into the
low to middle 50s tonight...except for upper 50s close to the coast.

A deep layer ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the
central Gulf Coast region Sunday. A deep dry airmass will hold in
place with clear skies expected through Sunday night. Highs Sunday
will range from around 80 near the coast to the lower to middle 80s
inland. Lows Sunday night are expected to range from the lower to
middle 50s inland to the lower to middle 60s near the immediate coast. /21

Long term [monday through friday]...the middle level ridge will advance
eastward and become centered in the vicinity of the Florida Peninsula and
the adjacent western Atlantic Monday...while southwest flow aloft
returns across the central Gulf Coast region in advance of the next
trough deepening over the central Continental U.S.. this next trough will move
eastward toward the Ohio/Tennessee region Tuesday while an associated cold
front also stretches from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley southwestward into
southeast Texas. Dry weather will persist through Tuesday given a
persistent dry airmass in place across the region in advance of these
features. Precipitable water values will increase to between 1 and
1.5 inches across the forecast area by Wednesday as the frontal
boundary slowly sags southward toward our region. We will keep a
slight chance of showers in the forecast Wednesday into Thursday with
this boundary in the vicinity of the County warning forecast area. Moisture will shift south
of the region late Thursday with a reinforcement of cooler and drier
air moving in by Friday as high pressure builds from the Central
Plains/upper midwestern states toward the central Gulf Coast. /21


12z issuance
VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours. 34/jfb


Marine...a moderate offshore flow early this morning will gradually
diminish by early Sunday as high pressure centered along the Texas
coast weakens and shifts east. The highs moves east into the western
Atlantic by Monday...resulting in a light to moderate onshore flow
Monday/Tuesday. A light to moderate offshore flow develops by late
Wednesday night as a cold front slowly moves into the coastal waters
from the north. 2-3 feet seas early this morning settle to 1-2 feet late
tonight and will slightly build again by Tuesday. 34/jfb


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 80 57 83 59 82 / 00 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 79 60 82 61 82 / 00 00 00 00 00
Destin 77 62 79 64 80 / 00 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 80 51 84 54 83 / 00 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 80 52 85 54 83 / 00 00 00 00 00
Camden 79 52 85 54 84 / 00 00 00 00 00
Crestview 80 49 84 55 83 / 00 00 00 00 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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