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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1127 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Discussion...see updated information below.


Update...temperatures are warming above previous have bumped
up. Reason for the warmer than expected temperatures is better insolation
coming in through The Breaks in the clouds...and an area over the
northeastern third of the forecast area being cloud free at this time. These temperatures will
put todays record maximum ts for mobile(80) and pensacola(78) reach.


18z issuance...general VFR ceilings/visbys today will fall into MVFR
level during the evenings hours...then flirt with IFR levels after
midnight. Wind direction tonight for kmob(from 160 degrees) is
conducive for dense advection fog to will keep an eye on
that. After sunrise...expect ceilings/visbys to mix out to low end MVFR
levels by 15z and upper end MVFR by noontime.


Previous discussion... /issued 602 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12z issuance...mostly MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities through
30.14z followed by MVFR to IFR ceilings through 30.17z then mostly MVFR
ceilings through 01.03z then MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities through
01.12z. Winds will be mostly southeast to south at 5 to 8 knots
through the forecast period. 32/ee

Previous discussion... /issued 451 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015/

Near term /now through Monday night/...surface high pressure ridge persists
over the area through tonight as a weakening frontal boundary
lingers to the west of the forecast area. With this...most of the precipitation
associated with the frontal boundary will remain west of the forecast
area in the near term...but slight chances for showers working into
the extreme northwestern zones (especially late tonight). Most
locations will remain rainfree however for another 24 hours or so.
Southwesterly upper flow will bring fairly widespread middle and high
level clouds over the area today and tonight. Areas of dense fog
this morning over portions of the forecast area...mainly coastal areas
from Baldwin County eastward and over interior south central Alabama
east of I-65. Have issued a dense fog advisory for that area...but
fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Will likely see a repeat
tonight...with areas of fog (some locally dense) redeveloping over
eastern and coastal portions of the area. Highs today will primarily
be in the middle 70s...although some locations could rise into the
upper 70s. Tonight's lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower
60s across the area. 12/ds

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/ Tuesday expect mostly
cloudy skies with increasing rain chances generally moving in from
the northwest as a deep upper low over the Upper Middle west continues
to track eastward. South of this upper system a weakening cold front
continues to move slowly southward towards the central Gulf Coast with
limited forcing and instability east of the front resulting in
mostly light to moderate rain showers ahead and along the front late
Tuesday through Wednesday. Aloft latest model soundings depict a moderate flow
from the SW with ample moisture lingering helping to generate Post
frontal type rain late Wednesday through most of the daylight hours on Thursday
then clearing out from the northwest to southeast. Most of the model
guidance depicts the best lift or forcing aloft with this pattern
to be associated with the favorable side of a broad 130 knot upper
jet aligned from East Texas to the middle Atlantic region by early Wednesday
shifting east slowly through the remainder of the week. The jet axis
moves east of the forecast area by late Thursday allowing most of the
Post frontal to precipitation to exit off to the east by late Thursday and Thursday
night. As mentioned earlier in the week with little to no surface
instability with this pattern precipitation should remain in the form of
showers with no thunder expected. As for temperatures will use a blend of
the MOS guidance through the short term resulting in highs in the
lower to middle 70s for most areas on Tuesday...lows Tuesday night ranging from
the middle to upper 50s inland and lower 60s near the coast...followed
by highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s to the west along and behind
the front and the middle to upper 60s to the east...then lows in the
lower to middle 40s well inland and the middle to upper 40s further to
the south towards the coast.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/ Thursday a stronger impulse or
short wave trough rounds the base of the upper trough to the north
allowing the deeper moisture aloft to eventually shift off to the
east for the remainder of the week. This pattern will result in more
clouds than sun with some light precipitation on Thursday followed by gradual
clearing Thursday night through Friday. For the extended periods generally
over the weekend will lean towards the drier European model (ecmwf) solution with an
upper ridge building over the Gulf and central Gulf states Sat
through sun leading to more sun than clouds. Temperatures will be more
seasonable with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with
lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s. 32/ee

Marine...a light onshore flow will continue through early Wednesday
morning as a high pressure ridge continues to the north of the
marine area. A cold front will move across the coastal waters
Wednesday night...with a moderate offshore flow developing in its
wake through Friday night. Winds and possibly seas building to small
craft exercise caution...or maybe Small Craft Advisory levels
(especially offshore)...beginning Wednesday night and continuing
into late Friday. 12/ds


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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