Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...update... 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1135 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Aviation...[18z issuance]...went ahead with an amendment with the
current terminal forecasts for all sites basically for showers and
thunderstorms forming upstream mostly approaching kmob and kbfm
during the next 2 to 4 hours. Had a thunderstorm pass through kpns in
the last hour though believe they will still experience mostly thunderstorms in the vicinity
conditions for now. Anymore convection forming upstream further to
the southwest over the adjacent waters will likely warrant a tempo
group for kpns also for todays afternoon convection.
Otherwise...expect mostly VFR to MVFR conditions through the next 24
hours. Lower ceilings will be mainly in and around showers and
thunderstorms through most of the forecast period. Winds will be south
to southwest at 6 to 10 knots through early this evening diminishing
to 3 to 5 knots late this evening continuing through middle to late
morning on Friday. 32/ee

&&

Short term...(today through saturday)...for today through tonight...
the middle/upper level low pressure just to the west of the forecast area
has opened to an elongated shear axis over central Louisiana...as
expected. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary to the
west of the forecast area through today and into this evening...while
upper level high pressure builds over the plains states and an upper
trough over the eastern third of the country deepens. The deepening
upper trough will allow a reinforcing surface frontal boundary currently
over Tennessee and northern Arkansas to drop south today and into the
northern portions of the forecast area by late tonight. Low level forcing
along and ahead of the approaching surface frontal boundary will result
in scattered showers and storms this afternoon across most of the
forecast area...but some areas over northeastern portions of forecast area
(where dynamic forcing will be greatest) will likely see scattered to
numerous storms. Down closer to the coast...sea breeze forcing will
remain dominant. With loss of daytime heating expect showers and
storms to decrease in coverage across most of the forecast area by middle to
late evening...with a slight chance for showers and storms remaining
primarily for southern (coastal) third of forecast area overnight. High
temperatures across the region this afternoon again expected to range from
the upper 80s to lower 90s...with the slightly cooler temperatures over the
northern zones where cloud cover and precipitation chances will be greatest
and near the Gulf Coast where moderating affects of the Gulf come
into play. Low temperatures tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s interior
counties and in the low to middle 70s coastal. 12/ds

Friday through Saturday...the upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S.
Fills..and when combined with an upper low moving moving east over
the US/California rockies...an upper high situated over the Desert Southwest
expands east over the Southern Plains and lower miss River Valley. A
surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of mex...restoring onshore
flow over the northern Gulf Coast. This will keep moisture levels
high (precip h20 values at or above 1.75") and help to temper the
upper ridge becoming an influence with respect to temperatures. Temperatures a bit
above seasonal are expected. What this upper high does is temper the
chance of rain...especially over northwestern sections of the forecast area. Probability of precipitation
start around seasonal for Friday and drop below for Saturday.

Long term...(saturday night on)...Saturday night through
Sunday night...the upper low that passed over the US/California rockies moves over
the northern plains and gets absorbed into the upper trough over the
eastern Continental U.S.. this re-digs the eastern trough...along with letting
the upper high over the western Continental U.S. Build north along The Rockies.
A front get pushed south over the lower miss river and southeastern
Continental U.S....to northern Alabama/MS by Monday morning according to the
guidance. Temperatures a bit above seasonal and probability of precipitation a bit below are being
advertised by guidance.

Monday through Tuesday night...with the upper energy continuing to
dig into the eastern trough...the surface front gets pushed
south...to just south of the northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening.
Even with the boundary...guidance is not that enthusiastic with the
probability of precipitation...advertising a chance of shra/tsra. Temperatures cool off a
bit (mainly due to the rain Monday through Tuesday...and drying out of
the airmass over the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night)...to a bit below
seasonal levels.

Wednesday through Thursday...a piece of energy moving southeast over
the plains into the eastern Continental U.S. Trough begins to interact with the
surface boundary as it approaches the lower miss River
Valley...bringing another chance of rain through middle week.

&&

Aviation...
(24/12z issuance)...general VFR through over most of the
next 24 hours...but occasional MVFR with regard to ceilings and surface visibilities near
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 12/ds

&&

Marine...a weak reinforcing surface boundary just north and inland from
the coastal waters will remain north of the marine area through
Monday. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure will remain in
place across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the same time
period. This will maintain a light to moderate southwest flow across
the marine area through most of the period...becoming more westerly
by Monday and Monday night. Little change in seas expected...
generally around 1-2 feet. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible at times...especially during late night and early
morning hours. 12/ds

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 89 72 91 74 92 / 50 20 40 20 30
Pensacola 88 75 90 76 91 / 50 20 40 20 30
Destin 87 78 88 77 89 / 50 20 40 20 30
Evergreen 90 70 93 71 93 / 50 20 40 10 30
Waynesboro 91 69 93 72 94 / 30 30 30 10 20
Camden 88 70 93 71 93 / 50 30 40 10 20
Crestview 91 70 92 71 93 / 50 20 40 20 30

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

12/16

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations