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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
500 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Update...latest observations indicate the development of low stratus
and patchy fog over the eastern quarter of the local area. Some of
the fog locally dense with visibility down to a quarter mile or less along
and east of a line from Camden to Evergreen Alabama to Crestview Florida. High
resolution satellite fog product shows fog may spread a bit more west
before daybreak. Have made a small update to gridded weather and
zones for fog early this morning. /10

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 425 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015/

Discussion...

Short term [today and tonight]...water vapor satellite imagery
shows a well defined upper level low spinning across the central
Gulf Coast. Isolated showers and a few storms noted on radar over
Mobile Bay and south of Fort Morgan...beneath the circulation
center. The upper low is forecast to lift northeast this morning
across southern Alabama...then fill and weaken into the afternoon as
it moves into the Appalachians. Will maintain mainly isolated
coverage of showers and storms this morning which will taper into
the afternoon as the better dynamics with the upper low begin to
exit off to the northeast. At the surface...a weak surface pressure
trough looks to be aligned west to east across the coastal zones.
Thus...a light wind pattern is forecast. Today's high temperatures
are forecast to range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight
lows in the upper 60s over the interior to middle 70s coast. /10

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is moderate

[monday through Tuesday night]...a highly amplified but weak upper
level trough will extend from the lower Great Lakes to northeast
Mexico Monday morning. An Upper Cutoff low will form over East Texas
throughout the day Monday as the southern portion of the upper
trough becomes detached from the northern portion. The northern
portion of the trough will evolve into a weak shortwave and advance
eastward over the Ohio River valley on Tuesday. An extension of an
upper ridge from the large upper high pressure system over the
western Atlantic will build over the southeast states Monday into
Tuesday...while a weak surface ridge of high pressure persists
across the southeast. With large scale subsidence across the
region...expecting no precipitation through the remainder of the
short term. Plenty of sunshine will also bring very warm
temperatures back to the forecast area.

High temperatures Monday will range from 89 to 94 degrees. Low
temperatures Monday night will range from 67 to 72 degrees inland
areas...with middle 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High
temperatures Tuesday will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal...with middle
90s inland areas and low 90s along the coast. Heat indices will
reach around 100 degrees. /22

Long term [wednesday through saturday]...the upper ridge will break
down through the remainder of the long term as the upper low over
East Texas moves very slowly eastward across the deep south. The
surface ridge of high pressure will also weaken through the period.
With the proximity of the upper low and weaker surface pressure...we
will see a return of the typical diurnal isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region. High temperatures will
reach the lower 90s inland area through the reminder of the week...
with upper 80s along the immediate coastal sections. Heat indus's
will reach around 100 degrees. /22

Marine...a weak trough of surface low pressure is forecast to be
draped across the central Gulf Coast into the early part of the
upcoming week. With a weak pressure pattern...winds are forecast to
be light...generally offshore at night and becoming onshore during
the day. Indications are that this pattern may hold right into the
middle of the week. Little change in seas. The remnants of
Erika...an easterly wave...are moving west northwest across the
southern tip of Florida and central Cuba. Moisture along it is
beginning to be pulled northward across Florida and into the
southeast in the larger scale flow ahead of upper low/trough over the
central and northern Gulf. /10

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 89 71 93 70 93 / 20 05 05 05 05
Pensacola 90 73 91 74 92 / 20 05 05 05 05
Destin 88 75 91 76 92 / 05 05 05 05 05
Evergreen 89 68 93 67 95 / 20 05 05 05 05
Waynesboro 90 68 93 67 95 / 20 05 05 05 05
Camden 89 68 92 67 95 / 20 05 05 05 05
Crestview 92 70 94 69 95 / 05 05 05 05 05

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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