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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
445 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Short term (today and tonight)...axis of high amplitude ridge
located near the MS/Alabama border this morning will shift east of the
County warning forecast area and weaken through early this evening in response to
progressive middle level short wave trough tracking eastward...moving
from East Texas to near the Alabama/Georgia border by 12z Friday. With no return or
southerly flow out ahead of this system no rain is expected through
tonight with maybe a few extra middle to high clouds generally moving
from west to east today and tonight. At the surface slightly
drier/cooler air will continue to advect south over the region
leading to mostly sunny skies today and seasonable temperatures. As for
temperatures will continue to use a blend of the mav and met guidance due
to better mixing in the boundary layer through the next 24 hours.
Highs today will climb to the middle 70s for most areas in the County warning forecast area
with lows tonight falling to the lower to middle 40s over inland
areas and the upper 40s to lower 50s along the immediate
coast. 32/ee

Long term (friday through wednesday) upper level shortwave
will dig southeast from the Midwest to the southeast Atlantic
Seaboard on Friday...reinforcing the cool and dry airmass in place
across the region. Therefore...another day of normal highs (mid to
upper 70s) can be expected with lows Friday night below normal (mid
to upper 40s) given light winds and clear skies with surface high
pressure over the area.

A moderating trend commences over the weekend as a large middle to
upper level ridge over the central portion of the country moves east.
Highs are expected to warm into the low 80s by Sunday with lows
trending back to near normal with dry conditions prevailing.

The ridge aloft shifts further east by early next week as another
trough amplifies over the intermountain west into the plains states.
Deep layer moisture will gradually increase across our region as the
deep layer flow becomes southerly. Will maintain a dry forecast
through Tuesday with slight chance for rain entering the picture by
Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Temperatures will be generally above normal Monday-Wednesday with humidity
values also increasing. 34/jfb


12z issuance
VFR conditions through 24.12z. Skies will continue to be mostly
clear. Winds will continue from the north and northeast at 4 to 8
knots through tonight. 32/ee


Marine...a moderate to strong northeasterly wind flow this morning
will diminish late today and early tonight then rebuild slightly
overnight and early Friday morning due to cold air drainage. Otherwise
a broad surface ridge of high pressure will continue to build east
over the central Gulf states and north central Gulf through early
next week. A light to moderate northerly wind flow will persist
though midday Sunday followed by a weak onshore flow by late Sunday
afternoon. Southerly winds and seas will build through midweek in
response to a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. The
strong cold front is expected to move across the marine area by late
next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front developing by midweek. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 75 49 77 48 79 / 00 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 76 54 77 52 79 / 00 00 00 00 00
Destin 74 56 76 54 78 / 00 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 75 43 76 43 78 / 00 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 74 43 76 44 80 / 00 00 00 00 00
Camden 74 42 76 44 78 / 00 00 00 00 00
Crestview 76 42 78 41 80 / 00 00 00 00 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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