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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
445 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Near term /now through Tuesday night/...areas of dense fog
continue to show up over eastern sections of the County warning forecast area this morning
generally over most inland areas of northwest Florida stretching
north over parts of south central Alabama. A dense fog advisory is in
effect for these locations until 8 am CST. Areas of fog possibly
becoming dense can be expected again tonight and early Wednesday morning. the surface a weakening cold front now over central MS
stretching south towards the central Louisiana coast will continue to
slowly move eastward reaching western parts of the forecast area by
after midnight tonight then moving to near the I-65 corridor
stretching southeast to near the mouth of Mobile Bay by 12z Wednesday. The
surface front continues to move eastward slowly as series of embedded
short waves or middle levels impulses round the base of the main upper
system to the north with trough axis nearing the Texas la border by around
12z Wednesday. As mentioned earlier the highest rainfall totals will be in
the vicinity and in the wake of the front through tonight...totaling
to about an inch near well inland from the coast and a half of an
inch further south along the coast.

As for temperatures will continue to lean towards the warmer mav/ecs
guidance for temperatures through tonight mainly from persistence. Highs
today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s to the northwest
and the middle to upper 70s for all other areas to the east and south.
Lows tonight will range from the low to middle 50s in the wake of the
front and in the upper 50s to lower 60s further east and south in
the vicinity and east of the front. 32/ee

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...a deep upper low
located near the Great Lakes region moves slowly eastward and
eventually exits across the New England area Thursday
night...meanwhile bringing an upper trough into the southeast states. A
cold front will be located near the eastern periphery of the
forecast area early Wednesday morning and continues quickly east of
the area during the day...with a surface high building into the
southeast states through Thursday night. Will have likely probability of precipitation
roughly east of I-65 Wednesday morning due to isentropic lift in the
wake of the front...with chance probability of precipitation further ot the west...then probability of precipitation
decrease to dry conditions by Wednesday evening as much drier air
flows into the area. Dry conditions continue through Thursday night
with cooler and progressively drier air flowing into the region.
Highs on Wednesday will range from around 60 well inland to the
middle/upper 60s near the coast...then for Thursday will range from the
upper 50s inland to the lower 60s near the coast. Lows Wednesday
night and Thursday night will range from the middle/upper 30s inland to
the Lower/Middle 40s near the coast. /29

Long term /Friday through Monday/ upper trough moves across the
region through Saturday with upper ridging building into the area
through Sunday. A surface high over the southeastern states expands
and strengthens to dominate the eastern states by Saturday and
remains in place through Monday while another upper trough meanwhile
advances across the plains...and may take on a negative tilt while
advancing across the Lower/Middle Mississippi River valley. Dry
conditions continue through Sunday with dry deep layer air remaining
in place over the area. Modest isentropic lift develops on Monday
with the upper trough approaching the region with a modest increase in
deep layer moisture...which looks sufficient to return slight chance
probability of precipitation to the area for Monday. Highs on Friday will be around 60 and
trend gradually warmer to the middle/upper 60s by Monday. Lows Friday
night will range from the upper 30s well inland to the middle/upper 40s
near the coast and likewise trend warmer through Monday night to
range from the upper 40s well inland to the middle 50s near the coast.


Marine...a light southerly flow will continue over the marine area
through early Wednesday morning followed by a moderate offshore flow
in the wake of a cold front Wednesday through late Friday. Seas up
to 5 feet can be expected in the wake of the front Wednesday night
and early Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers are expected along
and in the wake of the front through late Wednesday. A moderate to
strong easterly flow and building seas are expected over the marine
area late Friday through early next week as strong high pressure
builds east. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 74 57 61 39 / 20 50 40 10
Pensacola 77 64 67 44 / 20 40 70 10
Destin 76 66 70 47 / 10 30 70 10
Evergreen 76 59 62 39 / 30 50 50 10
Waynesboro 69 53 58 36 / 70 80 30 10
Camden 73 54 59 37 / 50 70 40 10
Crestview 79 60 67 39 / 20 30 70 10


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...dense fog advisory until 8 am CST this morning for alz056-059-

Florida...dense fog advisory until 8 am CST this morning for flz201-203-



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