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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
638 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00z issuance...VFR ceilings will persist over the next 24 hours with
just a few-scattered clouds around 4000 feet expected. VFR visibilities
will also prevail with the exception of MVFR conditions due to fog
late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Nearly calm winds
overnight should turn to the east and southeast at near 6 knots on
Wednesday. /22


Previous discussion... /issued 511 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/

Near term /now through Wednesday/...mostly sunny skies prevailed
across most of the forecast area late this afternoon with greater
cloud cover just to the west and southeast. Generally clear skies
are expected to continue overnight. Given light winds and the
aforementioned clear skies...some patchy fog is possible but
confidence was not high enough to put in the grids at this time. The
potential for fog will be re-evaluated this evening. As a middle-upper
level ridge continues to build into the region tomorrow...
temperatures should be slightly warmer as compared to today. Highs
are expected to be in the low 80s near the the middle 80s
inland...and around 90 in our western interior zones. Morning lows
will be in the low to middle 60s...warmer near the coast. Models do
indicate some very light quantitative precipitation forecast near our northwestern zones tomorrow
afternoon in the vicinity of a subtle surface trough. At this time
confidence was not high enough to include rain showers in the
forecast...but silent 10 percent probability of precipitation were placed in those areas.

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...the middle-upper
level ridge will build into our area on Thursday and quickly flatten
out into zonal flow with the influence of a digging trough through
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This should not have drastic
implications on temperatures...with highs continuing in the middle 80s
and lows in the middle 60s. These are near or slightly above normal for
this time of year. Models do hint at some light quantitative precipitation forecast near our
northwest zones on Thursday afternoon...again in the vicinity of a
weak surface trough. Some isolated rain showers were included in the
forecast in those areas...with probability of precipitation 20 percent or less. Otherwise the
forecast is dry with fairly clear skies overall.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/ the aforementioned trough
digs into the Carolinas by later Saturday...we expect a surface cold
front passage across our forecast area on Saturday. Many models
indicate this will be a dry frontal passage...or only indicate one or
two hundredths of an inch of rain. For now we have gone with a dry
forecast in these periods...but if stronger forcing emerges (from the
trough digging further south, etc) then probability of precipitation may need to be raised
slightly. Overall...if rain occurs it should be of the brief and
relatively inconsequential variety. After that...Sunday to
Tuesday...our area gets into dry northwest flow with sunny skies and
temperatures at levels near or above normal.

Marine...a light to moderate easterly flow will continue across the
coastal waters in the short term period with relatively higher
pressure situated over the land areas. The lack of a strong pressure
gradient should keep winds generally below 15 knots...and seas
offshore 3 feet or less. The winds should shift to a northerly
direction behind a cold front this weekend. Winds offshore could
approach 15 knots or so...but for now no conditions warranting hazard
headlines are currently forecast.


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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