Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
557 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.
12z issuance...VFR conditions will persist across the region today. Any
isolated coastal low ceilings this morning west of Pensacola will mix
out by late morning with a scattered to broken deck around 2-3 kft
expected through the afternoon. Did not feel enough compelled to
mention these as even 'tempo' in terminal forecasts but am also not
discounting this somewhere throughout the region through 26.14 UTC.
East winds this morning near 10 knots will become gusty 20-25kt by middle
to late morning and endure through dark. Scattered MVFR ceilings expected
after 06 UTC tonight...espeically closer to the coast. /23 jmm
Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
.High rip current risk through late Friday...
Near term /now through Thursday night/...regional sensible weather
being driven to a large degree by a persistent easterly wind flow
associated with the return circulation around a very strong and
sprawling surface high pressure system that was centered near Nova
Scotia and whose center was measured to be 1050 hpa around midnight
CST. Another mostly sunny but breezy day forecast as upstream middle-
and upper ridging builds and associated subsidence also persists.
Highs today will be in the middle 70s with lows tonight in the middle
50s. Went above guidance both periods a bit. Later this
evening...more substantial middle-and high cloud cover forecast along
with some late night coastal stratus...especially west of Pensacola.
Decided not to issue a high surf advisory given westerly moving swell
and component of surface wind still form the northeast. Expecting 2 to 4
feet surf breaker heights...just below the five feet required for an
advisory. However...as headlined...high rip current risk remains
through late Friday. /23 jmm
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...dry and mild conditions
continue through Saturday as upper ridging only slowly weakens. This
will keep the cold front stalled well to our northwest in the
southwest upper levels flow. The main impact will be increased
clouds across northwest portions of the area. Highs will be in the
low to middle 70s. Lows will be in the middle 50s inland to near 60 along
the coast. /13
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...the global models agree on
ejecting the western states cut off low northeast early next week.
This will send a cold front toward the area by midweek. They
then diverge significantly with the European model (ecmwf) pushing the front through
Wednesday while the GFS hangs the front over US as a wave of
low pressure develops along the front and tracks over the central
Gulf Coast. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast late in the
period...will leave slight chance to chance probability of precipitation much of next
week awaiting better agreement. /13
Marine...a strong easterly wind flow and fully developed seas of 8
to 11 feet gradually weaken and subside through late Friday. Wind
gusts today will frequently be near gale force....especially beyond
10 nautical miles. The high pressure system continues to
significantly weaken through the end of the weekend and into early
next week. /23 jmm
Alabama...high rip current risk through Friday afternoon for alz265-266.
Florida...high rip current risk through Friday afternoon for flz202-204-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for gmz631-632-650-
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