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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
949 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

Update...forecast looks to be on track this evening. Temperatures
are currently ranging from middle 30s far interior zones to the lower
40s near the coast...and are within a degree of the expected forecast
hourly temperature curve. Current dewpoint temperatures indicating
that lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s over most of the interior and
middle 30s at the coast still look reasonable. The other forecast parameters
looking good too as well...thus will make no adjustments to forecast
package. 12/ds


Previous discussion... /issued 555 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015/

Aviation update...(00z issuance)...northerly flow around 10 knots
will persist through the forecast period. MVFR ceilings from west
to east or gradually improving to VFR...expect most of the flying
area to be under VFR conditions in the next couple of hours. VFR
should then prevail through most of the night...but another stratus
deck propagating through the northwesterly flow aloft will likely
provide a couple hours of low end MVFR or IFR around day break
tomorrow before scattering out. /08 jw

******************************previous forecast*****************

Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)...for tonight through
Friday...surface high pressure will be reinforced across the area
overnight into Friday as a weak dry cold front moves south across the
northern Gulf waters. Despite the drier airmass behind the front as
northerly winds bring in cooler temperatures...enough boundary layer
moisture north of the forecast area will work its way south and allow
a low stratus deck to reform by late tonight. These clouds will
dissipate from east to west Friday morning...with plenty of sunshine
across the entire forecast area Friday afternoon.

Lows tonight will range from 28 to 33 degrees inland areas...with
middle 30s along the coast. High temperatures Friday will range from
middle 40s to lower 50s northwest of I-65...with middle to upper 50s
southeast of I-65. /22

Friday night through Saturday night...a strong shortwave sweeps east
along the south side of a west-southwest-east-northeast oriented trough. This shifts
surface high pressure over the northeastern Continental U.S. South along the
East over the Carolinas by Sunday morning. This shifts low
level flow from northerly to easterly...along with bringing an
increase in cloudiness to the area...starting in the middle levels
Saturday and progressing to the lower levels Saturday night as
isentropic upglide sets up. Am not really expecting any rain through
this portion of the forecast. Temperatures moderate upward through the
period...but generally remain at or below seasonal.

Long term...(sunday on)...Sunday through Sunday upper
system swings east over the Great Lakes...pushing the surface high
over the Carolinas even farther a surface ridge stretching
west over/near the northern Gulf Coast. This brings a general
southeast to southerly flow to the northern Gulf Coast and the forecast area. An
upper system over the southwestern Continental U.S. Begins to swing
east...bringing isentropic upglide induced showers to the lower miss
River Valley and inward to the middle miss/tenn river valleys. The forecast area
is on the eastern/southeastern edge of this precipitation...with
western...then northwestern portions of the forecast area seeing the best chance
for rain. Guidance is also indicating enough instability for some
rumblers to return to the lower miss River Valley.

Monday through Tuesday...the upper system over the southwestern Continental U.S.
Continues to swing east...developing a surface low over the Southern
Plains and taking it northeast towards the Great Lakes. Guidance is
advertising low level flow continuing to be best organized over the
lower miss River Valley and Southern Plains. Southerly flow does
become more organized over the forecast area...but other than a warming chance for rain continues to be over the lower miss
river valley(for US...western portions of the forecast area.)

Tuesday night through Thursday...the western upper system continues to
swing east...eventually pushing the band of best rain eastward before
pushing a front across the forecast area either Wednesday night(gfs) or
thursday(ecmwf). Either is have tried to blend the
timing. Either way...until frontal passage...temperatures and probability of precipitation above seasonal
until Thursday....then colder air moves in.

26.18z kmob/kbfm and kpns taf cycle
MVFR ceilings from 1500 to 2000 feet will gradually erode away
throughout the day...with prevailing VFR conditions by the late
afternoon or early evening hours. MVFR ceilings of around 1500 feet
will then return after 27.09z with the passage of a reinforcing weak
cold front moving through the region. Northerly winds around 10 knots
will persist. /22

Marine...a moderate to strong northerly wind flow will redevelop
tonight through noon Friday as a reinforcing weak cold front moves
across northern Gulf region. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Gulf waters...the Mississippi Sound east of
Pascagoula and Mobile Bay through noon Friday. Seas will rebuild to
3 to 5 feet near shore and to 5 to 7 feet well offshore overnight.
Bays and sounds will be choppy to rough. The widespread rain with a
few embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms will taper off this
evening. A large dome of high pressure will build into the region
through the weekend with moderate to strong offshore winds becoming
easterly by Sunday. A light southeast flow develops on Monday. /22


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 32 54 35 60 45 / 05 05 00 05 10
Pensacola 35 56 40 60 46 / 05 05 05 05 10
Destin 38 56 44 57 47 / 05 05 05 05 05
Evergreen 30 54 33 60 42 / 05 05 05 05 05
Waynesboro 29 48 30 59 41 / 05 05 00 05 05
Camden 29 50 33 60 41 / 05 05 00 05 05
Crestview 33 59 36 60 43 / 05 05 05 05 05


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon Friday for the following zones:
coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 nm...
coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 20
nm...Mississippi Sound...northern Mobile Bay...southern
Mobile Bay...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to
60 nm...waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20
to 60 nm...



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