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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
407 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Short term (tonight and saturday)...the axis of a longwave trough
over the eastern states moves slowly to near the East Coast through
Saturday...meanwhile maintaining a deep layer northwesterly flow over
the area with a large surface high building into the eastern states.
Dry conditions continue through Saturday along with mainly mostly
clear skies. Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees below normal and
range from the middle/upper 30s inland to lower 40s closer to the coast.
Highs on Saturday will be similarly below normal and mainly in the
Lower/Middle 60s. /29

(saturday night through Sunday night)...a weak perturbation in the
500 mb flow will move out of the region late Saturday. Some cloud
cover will linger but it will be fairly dry below 700 mb so this
feature won't provide much rainfall prospects. By Sunday the return
flow will commence but not much forcing will be present so dry
conditions continue through Sunday night. Highs will continue to be
in the 60s over the entire area on Saturday...upper 60s and lower 70s
Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and in the 50s Sunday night.

Long term (monday through thursday)...another cool front will move
into the southeastern United States on Monday...becoming stationary
and undergoing slow frontolysis through midweek. As that happens the
vertical structure and circulation will weaken...and temperature
fields will flatten...meaning only a chance to a slight chance of
rain for that period starting late Monday and that being mainly to
the north even with occasional transient perturbations in the upper
flow. Precipitable water will only be 1.25 or so inches although cape
will climb to 1200 j/kg. Otherwise a ridge will gradually rebuild in
from the east. Daytime highs in the upper 70s Monday then middle 70s
Tuesday followed by a rebound through the end of the week. Lows from
middle 50s inland to lower 60s coastal all week. /77


Marine...a surface high builds into the region through Sunday with
moderate to strong northerly winds gradually decreasing and switching
to a southerly direction. Will have small craft exercise caution
mainly for the evening hours until the offshore flow subsides
sufficiently. A light to occasionally moderate southerly flow
continues for Monday through Thursday. /29


Aviation...18z issuance...VFR conditions will continue for the next
24 hours. Breezy northwest winds near 15 miles per hour decreases to 5-10 miles per hour by
early this evening then becomes westerly by Saturday afternoon. /29


Fire...a large high will bring cool and dry air into the region
over the next several days. Afternoon relative humidity in the upper
20s making it marginal red flag conditions for Saturday...and a
slight rebound into the upper 30s Sunday afternoon. Dispersion on
Saturday will be in the excellent category....75 to 105 inside a line
from near Camden to Frisco City to Atmore Destin
Florida...and then north to Luverne Alabama...and 40s to 70s
elsewhere. These locations are approximate. Although none of the
humidity values meet red flag criteria...for fire safety
reasons...dispersion should be considered for planning purposes. No
fog expected. /77


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 40 66 46 69 56 / 05 05 10 10 10
Pensacola 43 64 46 66 58 / 00 05 05 05 10
Destin 45 63 47 66 59 / 00 05 05 05 10
Evergreen 36 61 39 69 51 / 05 05 05 05 10
Waynesboro 36 65 41 71 53 / 05 05 10 05 10
Camden 36 60 39 70 53 / 05 05 10 05 10
Crestview 36 65 41 67 49 / 00 05 05 05 05


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...



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