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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1130 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

Aviation...
23.06z terminal forecast discussion...VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 341 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015/

Short term...(tonight through Sunday night)...for tonight through
Saturday...a surface ridge of high pressure across the southeast
states will persist as strong high pressure centered across Kentucky
and Tennessee moves east over the western Atlantic. A light seabreeze
will develop along the immediate coast by early evening...but it will
not last very long as it encounters a synoptic northeasterly wind
flow and a strengthening landbreeze. Winds will then shift to the
east and southeast and increase to 10 to 15 miles per hour throughout the course
of the day Saturday. Meanwhile...upper high pressure centered over
the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast over the western Atlantic and
southeast states and continue to suppress any significant cloud
development or precipitation through Saturday afternoon.

Lows tonight will range from 55 to 60 degrees inland areas...61 to
65 degrees along the coastal sections...with the exception of the
upper 60s at the beaches. High temperatures Saturday will be around
to slightly above normal...ranging from 85 to 90 degrees...with the
exception of the lower 80s at the beaches. /22

Saturday night through Sunday night...the upper high that has become
situated over Florida/Georgia hangs tough...deflecting most energy from a
disorganizing upper low over the Desert Southwest well northwest of
the lower miss river and southeastern Continental U.S.. with the upper dynamics
pretty static...a surface ridge stretching west over the
southeastern Continental U.S. Becomes a bit more organized...providing a more
organized southeast to south flow over the lower miss River Valley
and western portions of the southeastern conus(including the fa).
Some of the energy ejecting from the southwestern Continental U.S. System does
begin to move over the lower miss River Valley late Sunday night into
Monday.

With the more organized onshore flow increasing moisture levels...and
upper impulsed beginning to move near the forecast area late in the short
term...an increase in the chance of rain is expected. Temperatures around
seasonal expected through the weekend...with daily...mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms expected.

Long term...(monday on)...Monday through Tuesday...the Delaware-evolving
southwestern Continental U.S. System continues to stream upper energy northeast
over the plains...pushing the upper ridge over the eastern Continental U.S.
Eastward enough for upper energy to move over the lower miss River
Valley. The result is an increase in the chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday...with highest chance being over northwestern portions of
the forecast area. Looking at the chance of strong to severe for the beginning
of the week...enough instability should be present over the
southeastern half of the forecast area for strong to severe storms to be
possible. Shear is linear and limited...so am not expecting organized
systems. At this point...any that do develop could become strong to
severe...with any that do moving in a general northerly direction.
Hail and winds look to be the primary threats. With precipitation h20
amounts of 1.75" to around 2"...any training cells could cause local
water problems...but do not see enough to hang a hat on at this
point.

Tuesday night through Friday...the last of the energy from the Delaware-
evolving southwestern Continental U.S. System and more energy moving into the
the upper trough that has developed over the western Continental U.S. Help to
continue to push the eastern upper ridge eastward. The last of pieces
of energy from the southwestern Continental U.S. System pass north of the forecast area
late Wednesday and become less of an influence on precipitation
generation...with a decrease Wednesday night into Friday. With the
decrease in the chance of rain comes an increase in temperatures...to around
or a bit above seasonal levels.

Marine...a light to moderate northeasterly wind flow developing this
evening will turn easterly Saturday morning and then southeasterly in
the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure across the southeast states
shifts east. As the high moves further east over Memorial Day
weekend...the wind will strengthen from the southeast at 15 to 20
knots. Seas will also increase over the Gulf...approaching 6 feet.
Bays and area waterways will be mostly choppy. /22

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 61 87 70 87 72 / 05 05 30 40 20
Pensacola 65 86 73 86 74 / 05 05 20 30 20
Destin 69 86 74 86 75 / 05 05 20 30 20
Evergreen 57 88 68 88 69 / 05 05 10 40 10
Waynesboro 57 87 66 87 69 / 05 05 10 40 20
Camden 56 87 68 87 69 / 05 05 10 30 10
Crestview 58 90 68 90 70 / 05 05 20 40 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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