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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
921 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Update...have updated for clear to mostly clear skies over the area
with other minor adjustments. /29

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 624 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/

Aviation...
00z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Light
southerly winds become northwesterly tonight then return to a
southerly direction by early Tuesday afternoon. May see patchy fog
late tonight at some locations. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/

Short term [tonight through Wednesday night]...for tonight through
Tuesday...mid/upper level trough/shear axis noted to the west of the
forecast area today...extending from the Great Lakes region down into
Texas. Water vapor imagery indicates two shortwave features along
this axis...one over Indiana and the other swirling over the Rio
Grande area of Texas. Models (nam/GFS/ecmwf) all seem to initialize
well with these features and keep this trough axis to the west of the
forecast area through Tuesday...with upper ridging to the east of the
forecast area. At the surface...high pressure centered along the middle Atlantic
will continue to ridge southwest into our area through Tuesday. This
pattern will allow dewpoints in the upper 60s to continue over
interior zones through tomorrow... even though middle layers of the
atmosphere will gradually be moistening. With the lack of any larger
scale forcing mechanisms however...do not expect precipitation
through Tuesday...at least not widespread enough to include a chance
for rain. An isolated late afternoon sea breeze shower or storm could
be possible just inland from the coast...however. There has been some
light patchy overnight fog the past couple of nights...especially
inland away from the coast...and will likely see some light fog again
tonight. A light east to southeast surface wind flow is expected tonight
and most of Tuesday...becoming light southeast near the coast in the
afternoon with a weak diurnal sea breeze circulation. Lows tonight in
the upper 60s to lower 70s inland...and middle 70s coastal. Highs on
Tuesday upper 80s to lower 90s coastal and middle 90s interior. 12/ds

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...into middle week...guidance
diverges in handling of the upper low over the Sabine River.
European model (ecmwf)/GFS/NAM open the upper low...with the GFS and NAM meandering it
south a bit towards the Gulf of mex. The European model (ecmwf) wanders the opening
system east...to over the forecast area by Thursday morning. Both absorb the
remnants of Erika. With this absorbing comes a small chance of rain
for the area for this time period. Do have a slight chance of
rain...even with precipitation h20 values increasing to around 1.8". This is
above the GFS/European model (ecmwf) but below the seemingly always wet NAM. The upper
ridge over the Caribbean loses some of its grip on the southeastern
states...with Delaware-amplification from shortwave energy passing over the
northern end of the ridge. Even so...temperatures remain a bit above
seasonal.

Long term [thursday on]...Thursday through Friday...a strong upper
system moves over the northwestern Continental U.S.. the forecast area comes between two
shortwave systems embedded in an upper ridge that has shifted over
the eastern Continental U.S.. temperatures rise into the middle 90s during the
day. With a soupy airmass...temperatures raise back into the middle
90s...and daytime heat indices rising back into the 100-105 degree
range.

Friday night through Monday...upper energy moves south along the
east edge of the eastern trough...eventually forming a weakly
organized system over the southeastern states. Rain chances increase
to around seasonal (scattered...mainly afternoon/evening rain showers/tsra)
with temperatures falling to around seasonal levels.

Marine...a weak pressure pattern remains in place over the marine
area this week...resulting in light windflow. Primarily light east
to northeast...but becomings more southeasterly during the
afternoons. Little change in seas expected. Scattered showers and
storms becoming more likely over the marine area middle to late week.
12/ds

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 72 93 72 92 73 / 05 05 10 20 20
Pensacola 75 92 74 91 76 / 10 00 20 20 20
Destin 77 90 78 91 78 / 05 10 20 20 20
Evergreen 70 94 70 95 71 / 05 05 10 20 20
Waynesboro 70 94 70 94 72 / 05 05 05 20 10
Camden 70 93 71 95 72 / 05 05 10 20 10
Crestview 71 93 69 94 71 / 05 10 20 30 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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