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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
403 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Short term [tonight through Saturday night] expected we have
very little convection over the forecast area today...although a few
isolated storms are trying to develop over parts of the western
Florida Panhandle (so far mainly just east of our forecast area). An
isolated shower or storm will also be possible late this afternoon or
early evening further inland as well...but most locations will remain
rainfree through midnight. As we approach daybreak on Saturday (4th
of july)...the surface boundary that has been initiating scattered to
numerous showers and storms well north of our area today will be
settling into extreme northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
This boundary will be moving south toward our area as a result of a
deepening middle/upper level trough over the southeastern states. Models
are in fairly good agreement in showing a few pieces of energy
rotating around the base of this trough tomorrow. The surface boundary
being closer and acting as a focus...combined with the increased
upper support as well as diurnal heating pattern and a very moist
airmass should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms
tomorrow...most likely over northern two thirds of the forecast area.
While not a complete washout for most areas...thunderstorms will be
possible at just about anytime/anywhere tomorrow so be prepared.
While the severe threat will be low...a few strong to even marginally
severe storms could be possible. Lows tonight ranging from the lower
70s inland to the middle/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on the 4th in the
upper 80s and lower 90s...but high dewpoints will produce heat
indices in the middle to upper 90s. 12/ds

Saturday night...upper level energy slides southeastward across the
middle-south and lower Mississippi River Delta Saturday night...which
upon interacting with a deeply moist column of air residing across
the central Gulf Coast suggests a chance of showers and storms
through the night. With precipitable water values ranging from 1.7 to
1.9 inches...storms will be efficient in the production of localized
heavy rain. Frequent lightning activity and strong gusty winds can
also be expected in the stronger storms. Ridge of high pressure at
the surface extends westward into the Gulf...maintaining a light
southwest flow and muggy nighttime temperatures. Lows 73 to
76...except in the upper 70s at the beaches. /10

Long term [sunday through friday]...upper level trough axis migrates
eastward Sunday and Monday...then opens up/weakens Tuesday. The high
level flow flattens by the end of the week with a narrow middle level
ridge setting up from Texas...into the southeast.

With middle level impulses rounding the base of the high level trough
axis Sunday and Monday along with persistent deep moisture...a
moderate to high chance of showers and storms remain in the forecast.
Looking to return to a more typical Summer-time convective Mode with
low end chances of showers and storms through the remainder of next

Daytime highs close to seasonal (upper 80s) during the beginning of
the outlook shows an upward trend into the middle 90s by the latter end
of next week as middle level ridge builds. Overnight lows show very
little change. /10


03/18z tafs...VFR conditions tonight and early Saturday
with only a very isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across the region. Increased
coverage of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain on Saturday...with periods of MVFR visibilities/ceilings
in and near the storms. Prevailing light south to southwest flow
expected with brief stronger/gusty winds in and near the storms.


Marine...a light to moderate south to southwest flow pattern will
prevail over the marine area through the middle of next week as a
persistent surface ridge of high pressure stretches from the western
Atlantic west across eastern and central Gulf. A surface trough will
drift down into the southeastern states...bringing an increase in
showers and storms over the marine area this weekend...but
diminishing again somewhat early next week. Winds and seas will be
locally higher near storms that develop...but otherwise relatively
small seas expected. 12/ds


Fire weather...a moderate deep mixed layer west to southwest flow
results in very high dispersions across the northwest Florida
Panhandle and portions of interior southwest Alabama Saturday
afternoon. Latest gridded dispersion index ratings reach between 100
and 120 over these areas. These very high ratings suggest hazardous
fire control conditions. Other hazards this weekend will be frequent
lightning activity and brief strong wind gusts in and near scattered
to numerous storms. /10


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 76 88 74 89 74 / 20 50 40 50 40
Pensacola 77 89 75 88 75 / 20 50 30 40 30
Destin 79 88 79 88 79 / 10 50 30 50 30
Evergreen 73 89 73 89 73 / 20 70 40 50 40
Waynesboro 73 89 73 87 73 / 40 60 50 50 50
Camden 73 87 72 88 72 / 30 60 50 50 50
Crestview 73 90 73 90 73 / 20 60 30 50 40


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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