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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
435 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)...for today through tonight...
diurnal pattern of overnight marine convection and daytime inland
convection continues. Over the past few hours convection has
increased in coverage over the coastal waters of the Florida
Panhandle...and will likely see a little more offshore development
through sunrise. As has been the case for the past several
days...will again see showers and storms develop over inland areas by
late morning or early afternoon...and continue into the early/middle
evening hours. A weak and gradually dissipating nearly stationary surface
boundary along the Gulf Coast continues to supply low level
convergence and forcing...while a broad upper low produces upper
level support. These features...along with diurnal thermal
trends...have been the primary ingredients producing the rather wet
weather pattern over the past several days. The broad upper
low...centered over southern Alabama early this morning is expected
to retrograde ever so slowly to the west-southwest through
tonight...being located over southeastern Louisiana by late tonight.
This trend will bring deeper moisture into the forecast area...with the
main axis of showers and storms which has been primarily east and
south of the region back into our area today and tonight. The overall
system is somewhat weaker than a few days ago...but even so we are
still expecting scattered rain chances across the region this
afternoon. As noted...convection potential will shift from onshore to
offshore again by late this evening. No severe weather is
anticipated...but a few storms could produce strong gusty winds. All
will also likely produce very heavy rainfall for localized areas and
frequent lightning. A little more sunshine at times today...as a
result high temperatures this afternoon likely to ranged from the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Low temperatures tonight generally in the lower 70s area wide.
12/ds

Wednesday through Thursday...a combination of upper level high
pressure off the Florida Atlantic Seaboard building westward over the Gulf
of mex and a progressive upper pattern over the US/California border helps to
weaken the upper low over the forecast area at this time as it moves westward...along
with tilting the upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S.. surface high
pressure builds west over the Gulf of mex with the westward building
upper ridge...helping to re-establish a more organized onshore flow
over the forecast area. Guidance is advertising the upper ridge having more of
an influence on probability of precipitation...with below seasonal chance of rain. For
temperatures...with an increase in middle/upper level cloud cover from the
upper low/trough enhanced activity to the west...temperatures are expected
to be closer to seasonal levels.

Long term...(thursday night on)...Thursday night through
Saturday...with a progressive upper pattern over the northern Continental U.S.
Continues to push the northern end of the eastern trough eastward.
The southern end of the trough gets drawn southward...over the Gulf
of mex...with an upper ridge building west over the Southern Plains
and lower miss River Valley from an upper high present over the
Desert Southwest. Temperatures rise above seasonal levels with probability of precipitation dropping
below.

Saturday night through Tuesday...more energy dives into the eastern
upper trough...digging it south over the eastern Continental U.S....to over the
eastern Gulf of mex. This returns temperatures and probability of precipitation to seasonal levels
as the upper ridge stretching east-southeast over the lower miss River Valley
gets pushed south...then replaced by the upper trough.

&&

Aviation...
(22/12z issuance)...scattered convection mainly south of
terminals over northern Gulf early in the period...but convection
re-initiating near terminals and over land areas by around middle to
late morning Tuesday. Will continue with the prob30 for all
terminals after 22.1500z today. Wind light from the southeast
through southwest. 12/ds

&&

Marine...a weak and dissipating frontal boundary just north and
inland from the coastal waters will move little and continue to
dissipate over the next few days. Otherwise...a ridge of high
pressure will remain in place across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through late week and into the weekend. This pattern will maintain a
light to moderate southwest flow across the marine area through the
period...with little change in seas (generally around 1-2 feet).
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible... especially
late night and early morning. Rip current potential will remain high
along the Gulf beaches for a good portion of the day today...even
though onshore southwesterly winds will be decreasing (but still
persistent). 12/ds

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 90 71 91 72 90 / 40 20 20 20 40
Pensacola 89 74 90 74 90 / 50 20 20 20 30
Destin 85 78 89 76 87 / 40 20 20 20 30
Evergreen 89 70 92 70 92 / 50 30 20 20 40
Waynesboro 90 69 93 70 91 / 50 30 30 20 40
Camden 89 70 93 70 93 / 50 30 20 20 40
Crestview 90 67 93 71 92 / 50 20 20 20 40

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk until 7 am Tuesday for the following
zones: lower Baldwin...lower Mobile...

Florida...high rip current risk until 7 am Tuesday for the following
zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...coastal Santa
Rosa...

MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

12/16

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