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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
633 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

06.00z terminal forecast discussion...
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with scattered
cumulus clouds during the day...along with scattered middle to high
level cloud cover. Winds become light east to NE this evening through
Wednesday morning. /21


Previous discussion... /issued 346 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/

Short term....[tonight and wednesday]...a strong surface ridge of
high pressure generally east of the Mississippi River valley centered
over southeast Continental U.S. Stretching west and south over the northern Gulf and
central Gulf states will continue to maintain strength through
Wednesday afternoon leading to mostly sunny skies and very little
rain chances for most areas in the forecast area through Wednesday. Both
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) shows a deep area of low pressure over the central
Continental U.S. This afternoon and tonight then shifting northward during the
day on Wednesday. As system tracks northward a weak surface trough from this
system stretches well to the east and southeast passing mostly over
the lower MS River Valley...stretching further east over extreme
western parts of the County warning forecast area from early to midday on Wednesday. With this
pattern both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to a some measurable rain
mostly over parts of southeast MS stretching into extreme western
parts of the SW Alabama by early afternoon with little to no accumulation.
With limited forcing in the middle levels combined with limited
moisture in the boundary layer any precipitation that does occur should be
short lived probably in the form of a brief shower or thunderstorm
moving northward with the mean flow. Latest model sounding also
depict most of the lift occurs beneath a 700 mb capping inversion
which suggests mostly a brief shower at most. With this will continue
to mention a slight chance for a brief shower or thunderstorms in
the areas mentioned above. As for temperatures with better mixing expected
again tonight followed with more sun than clouds during the day on
Wednesday will lean towards the warmer mav guidance for temperatures through Wednesday
adjusting slightly for consistency with surrounding weather forecast offices. Lows
tonight will fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s for most inland areas
and the middle to upper 60s near the immediate coast. Highs for Wednesday will
climb to the middle 80s for most inland areas and the upper 70s to
lower 80s along the immediate coast. 32/ee

[wednesday night through Thursday night]...a stacked low
pressure system off the southeast coast will drift very slowly
northward through the remainder of the short term...with a surface
high pressure ridge persisting across the southeastern Continental U.S.. this
will continue to result in a generally east to southeast wind flow
across the region. Upper ridging will act to suppress significant
cloud development and any chance for precipitation. So expect mainly
clear to mostly clear skies at night...and mostly sunny skies during
the day. Will maintain the possibility of late night patchy fog for
both Wednesday and Thursday nights...especially along and north of
the I- 10 corridor.

Lows both Wednesday and Thursday nights will range from 58 to 63
degrees inland areas...and range from 64 to 68 degrees along the
immediate coastal sections. High temperatures on Thursday will be
slightly above normal...reaching the middle 80s inland areas and lower
80s along the coast. /22

Long term [friday through tuesday]...models still consistently
continue to show no real changes to the weather pattern for the
local area through the weekend. Weak surface high pressure continues
across the region through the weekend as the stacked low pressure
system remains quasi-stationary off the Carolina coast. Middle/upper
ridging continues as well across the forecast area...and will
continue to suppress any chances for precipitation through Sunday.

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models have an upper level shortwave exiting
the Central Plains Sunday night and swinging across the eastern
Continental U.S. Monday into Tuesday. This upper shortwave should finally kick
the quasi-stationary low pressure system hovering around the
southeast US coastline northeastward...and bring our best chance of
rain on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the extended. /22

Marine...strong high pressure over the southeast states and northern
Gulf will begin to weaken later today and continue through the
remainder of the week leading to a gradual decrease in winds and seas
through the remainder of the week. A moderate easterly flow will
continue though tonight and early Wednesday shifting mostly southeast
and diminishing further late Wednesday afternoon continuing through
Friday. This pattern will become more diurnally driven with better
winds and seas during the late afternoon due mostly to daytime
heating. As a result small craft should exercise caution over the
open Gulf waters tonight and on Wednesday. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 61 84 63 84 63 / 05 20 05 05 05
Pensacola 66 83 66 82 66 / 05 05 05 05 05
Destin 67 83 68 81 68 / 05 05 05 05 05
Evergreen 59 86 59 86 59 / 05 05 05 05 05
Waynesboro 58 84 61 86 61 / 05 20 05 05 05
Camden 59 86 60 86 59 / 05 05 05 05 05
Crestview 59 88 59 88 58 / 05 05 05 05 05


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk through Wednesday morning for lower
Baldwin-lower Mobile.

Florida...high rip current risk through Wednesday morning for coastal
Escambia-coastal Okaloosa-coastal Santa Rosa.



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