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Area forecast discussion...update to aviation 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1145 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Update...current package on track. Radar is all clear. Everything
basically on track...with no updated planned.

/16

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Aviation...
06z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast.
A few thunderstorms and rain possible in the afternoon Tuesday...but am expecting
these to be isolated

/16

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Short term [tonight through Tuesday afternoon]...the upper level
trough responsible for the unsettled weather for the past several
days continues to progress eastward and weaken. Meanwhile...upper
level ridging is building in from the southwest. This has resulted in
a much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Upper heights will continue to increase through the day on Tuesday as
the ridge builds. In fact..both the mav and met guidance probability of precipitation are
<10% at most locations. Considering the time of year and local
seabreeze effects...will maintain an isolated pop for the southern
half of the area Tuesday afternoon. However... convective development
will be few and far between. The building ridge will also lead to
higher temperatures with highs in the low 90s on Tuesday. Heat index values
will approach 100 in most spots. /13

[tuesday evening through wednesday]...an upper level ridge across
the western Atlantic and southeastern Continental U.S. Will persist through the
remainder of the short term...while the surface high pressure ridge
extending from the western Atlantic...across the Florida Peninsula
and into the Gulf of Mexico shifts slightly northward across the
deep south. This pattern will result in a continuation of a typical
diurnal pattern this time of year...with only isolated afternoon
thunderstorms developing on Wednesday along a developing seabreeze
as sufficient boundary layer moisture remains in place underneath
the ridge axis.

Low temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be in the
lower 70s inland areas...with middle 70s along the immediate coastal
sections. High temperatures Wednesday will range from 92 to 96
degrees inland areas...and around 90 degrees at the beaches. Heat
indices will likely reach the upper 90s to around 103 degrees on
Wednesday afternoon. /22

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Long term [thursday through monday]...the center of the upper level
ridge across the southeastern Continental U.S. Will shift very slowly westward
through the remainder of the long term forecast. The center should
be positioned over North Texas by the end of the weekend...with the
ridge extending from the southern rockies all the way across the
deep south. This pattern will maintain the diurnal pattern with only
isolated...mainly afternoon...thunderstorms developing Thursday
through Monday. Again aided by a developing seabreeze each day with
sufficient boundary layer moisture remaining in place. This pattern
will also lead to continued hot and humid conditions through the
extended forecast period...with little change in daily maximum/min
temperature readings. Afternoon heat indices will likely reach the
upper 90s to around 103 degrees through the long term. /22

&&

Marine...a surface ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch
across the north central and eastern Gulf of Mexico through the
week...maintaining a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
pattern with low seas over the marine area through the week. Winds
and seas will be locally higher near isolated storms that develop.
/13

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 74 91 72 92 72 / 10 20 05 20 05
Pensacola 76 90 76 91 75 / 10 20 05 20 05
Destin 78 88 78 90 77 / 10 20 05 10 05
Evergreen 72 93 71 96 71 / 10 20 05 20 05
Waynesboro 72 92 71 95 70 / 10 10 05 10 05
Camden 72 93 71 95 71 / 10 10 05 10 05
Crestview 73 93 70 95 71 / 10 20 05 20 05

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Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

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