Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
846 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Update...
we have updated the forecast to remove mention of isolated
convection. All other elements remain on track. /21

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 656 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Aviation...
31.00z terminal forecast discussion...
mainly scattered VFR level cloud decks will be in place across the
region this evening with potential for localized MVFR to IFR ceilings
developing late tonight and early Tuesday morning. A brief period of
MVFR visibility reductions are also possible early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise...southwest winds should diminish to 5-10 knots tonight
and persist through the early morning hours Tuesday. /21

Previous discussion... /issued 407 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...a weak middle to upper
level short wave will continue to over the central Gulf states this
afternoon will shift east of the region by late tonight. At this
surface enough residual moisture combined with sufficient heating and
developing seabreeze boundary moving inland from the coast will allow
for slight chance to chance probability of precipitation to continue over interior sections
of the County warning forecast area this evening with the best coverage generally occurring
along a line from Wiggins MS to Andalusia Alabama early this evening then
spreading eastward towards south central parts of Alabama. Most of the
model guidance shows most of the precipitation ending shortly after sunrise
this evening with the hrrr holding on a little longer...depicting
measurable rain in the areas mentioned above through middle to late
evening. Latest model soundings do show a rather strong cap occurring
over most of the western half of the County warning forecast area at this time though believe with
afternoon temperatures still climbing and better dewpoints spreading inland
from the afternoon seabreeze circulation believe believe we will see
more precipitation over interior sections. One concern with some the
stronger thunderstorms will be gusty winds and maybe some small to
medium size hail. Wetbulbs are still running between 7.8k to 9.2k feet
generally from west to east. For Tuesday expect much less coverage
for most areas except across extreme northeast sections of the County warning forecast area
where better moisture and middle forcing continues...prompting scattered
probability of precipitation for most of the day. Most areas will also mostly cloudy
conditions tonight and during the day on Tuesday as more middle to high
base moisture generally from the west and northwest advects eastward
through the next 24 hours. As for temperatures will continue to lean towards
the warmer mav guidance through Tuesday and adjust for consistency with
surrounding weather forecast offices. Tonights lows will range from the middle 50s for
most inland areas and the lower 60s closer to the coast. Highs Tuesday
will climb to the lower to to middle 80s inland and the upper 70s
near the immediate coast. 32/ee

The weak surface front is forecast to be across the far northeast
forecast area or just northeast of the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Cannot rule out a few storms lingering across areas north
of Highway 84 in Alabama Tuesday night. Otherwise...patchy dense fog is
likely to develop over the region after midnight given light winds.

A shortwave will move into the lower MS valley on Wednesday with
shortwave ridging developing across our region. This ridging is
likely to result in any isolated to scattered storm activity
remaining confined to locations in close proximity of the front
where MLCAPES will climb to around 1000 j/kg. The ridging will keep
rain chances less than 20% for locations closer to the coast and
further away from the front. A slight chance for rain lingers into
Wednesday evening for well inland locations...but most of the region
will be dry through the night with additional patchy dense fog
developing overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday night lows will range from the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Wednesday highs will be above normal in the low to middle
80s...except for upper 70s at the coast. 34/jfb

Long term (thursday through monday)...the aforementioned shortwave
will maintain 20-30% rain chances across the area on Thursday...with
the best chances confined over far inland SW Alabama/southeast MS. Rain chances
will be fairly low Thursday night into Friday. However...a stronger
cold front is forecast to move into the northern portions of the
forecast area Friday night and push offshore Saturday morning. While
the front will be strong enough to enhance rain chances across the
area...the main shortwave energy will stay well to the north across
the Tennessee Valley/Midwest. Therefore...will keep rain chances below the
likely category for now. Lower humidity and seasonable temperatures
are expected over the weekend. Sunday morning lows will likely be a
little below normal as Canadian high pressure settles over the
southeast states and enhances radiational cooling. The high quickly
moves east by Sunday...with a return flow off the Gulf becoming
established by Monday...setting the stage for the potential of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. 34/jfb

Aviation...
30.18z issuance...most VFR to MVFR ceilings a through 31.18z. Winds will
continue from the southwest at 12 to 16 knots through early this
evening...diminishing to 3 to 6 knots overnight and early Tuesday morning
then increasing to 12 to 16 knots later in the day. 32/ee

Marine...a broad surface ridge of high pressure will extend from
the western Atlantic through the north central Gulf through midweek.
A light to moderate southerly to southwesterly wind flow will
persist through Wednesday. Higher winds and seas will likely occur
during the afternoon and early evening hours through midweek due to
afternoon heating and local seabreeze effects. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms will also be possible mostly near shore and over
inland bays and sounds through midweek. 32/ee

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 59 82 61 81 61 / 10 05 10 10 10
Pensacola 62 81 63 79 62 / 10 05 10 10 10
Destin 65 77 64 76 63 / 10 05 10 10 10
Evergreen 56 84 58 82 58 / 10 20 20 30 20
Waynesboro 57 82 58 82 59 / 10 20 20 20 10
Camden 56 82 58 81 58 / 10 30 30 40 20
Crestview 59 84 60 85 54 / 10 10 10 20 10

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations