Area forecast discussion...aviation update
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1125 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Aviation (24.06z issuance)...VFR conditions expected through the
next 24 hours. /13
&&
Short term [tonight through Friday night]...weak shortwave energy in the
northwesterly flow aloft will allow a weaken surface frontal boundary to
drop south across the region tonight and Friday. The stronger upper
level dynamics look to move across the area tonight...and with the
low level focus of the frontal boundary may result in isolated
showers and thunderstorms late tonight...mainly over Mississippi
zones and extreme southwestern Alabama and the coastal waters. It is
in these areas that the better moisture is available...although
still rather limited. As the front moves out over the northern Gulf on
Friday...dry northwesterly flow and even drier airmass will preclude
any rain chances. With the drier airmass tonight...am not expecting
any widespread fog to development. Overnight min temperatures tonight near
climatology...with lows in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s to lower
70s coastal. Near or slightly above normal maximum temperatures on Friday...in the
low to middle 80s interior and some upper 80s to near 90 over portions
(away from the beaches) of the coastal zones. 12/ds
Clear and cooler conditions forecast for Friday night with high
pressure building in from the north. Overnight low temperatures
Friday night are forecast to be some 7 to 10 degrees lower than
tonight's mins. /10
Long term [memorial day weekend through thursday]...weather pattern looks
quiet with no rain in the forecast. Upper level ridging forecast to
hold with deep layer moisture to remain mostly limited. Axis of
surface high pressure moves across the Appalachians into the
southeast late this weekend and then off the East Coast next week.
Thus...under southerly winds...warm daytime temperatures expected.
Overnight lows will moderate...moving well into the 60s by next week.
Closer to 70 along the beaches. /10
&&
Marine...a weak cold front will drop south toward and then across
the marine area late tonight and Friday...with high pressure
rebuilding over the southeastern states in the wake of the front.
This high pressure will then ridge south over the northern Gulf of
Mexico through Tuesday. An offshore flow will develop over the
marine area late tonight through Friday night...likely reaching
exercise caution levels Friday night. By Saturday and into the early
part of next week...flow becomes more easterly then southeasterly and
weakens as high pressure shifts east over the southeast Atlantic
coast. 12/ds
&&
Fire weather...will be moving into a dry period the next couple days
as surface high pressure builds in from the north. Although lowest
daytime humidity values will be approaching or moving below critical
levels...not expected to meet other criteria such as required energy
release components (erc's)...20 feet wind speed and kbdi for fire
weather headlines. On Friday...daily dispersion rating is forecast to
move above 75...which will be in the good category. /10
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
Destin 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
Camden 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
Crestview 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
