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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1153 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation...
28.18z terminal forecast discussion...
MVFR ceilings over the northwest Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama
late this morning will gradually develop/spread northwestward across
the rest of the region this afternoon and evening. Ceilings should
lower to IFR levels late this evening into tonight with potential for
MVFR to localized IFR visibility reductions late. Northeast to east
winds around 10 knots will otherwise continue. /21

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1110 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Update...surface high pressure is centered over the middle Atlantic
region this morning with the associated ridge axis stretching
southwestward across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the
north central Gulf of Mexico. A semi-zonal flow pattern aloft
meanwhile prevails across the central Gulf Coast region. Visible
satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies in place across
southeast MS and portions of southwest Alabama...while low clouds have
been developing northwestward across the northwest Florida Panhandle and
adjacent portions of south central Alabama. Temperatures are already
warming well into the 50s across most locations as of 11 am CST.

The forecast mostly looks to be on track today...but we did increase
cloud cover late this morning into this afternoon across the
northwest Florida Panhandle and much of south central Alabama as the latest
NAM and rap models Show Low level moisture/isentropic ascent spreading
northwestward across this region within increasing southeasterly low
level flow. The latest temperature and dewpoint trends appear on
target...but will continue to monitor and make adjustments as
necessary. /21

Marine...latest marine observations indicate that northeasterly
winds have subsided below Small Craft Advisory levels over the
Mississippi Sound...lower Mobile Bay...and the near shore coastal
waters of Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle...but still remain
within the 15-20 knots range over the near shore waters. We will continue
to headline exercise caution over this portion of the marine area. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 20 to 60 nm out for winds
around 20 knots...and seas up to 7 feet. /21

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 63 45 67 53 70 / 05 05 20 20 30
Pensacola 59 47 65 54 70 / 05 20 20 20 20
Destin 56 49 62 55 69 / 10 20 20 20 20
Evergreen 62 42 66 52 71 / 05 20 20 20 30
Waynesboro 62 42 66 51 66 / 05 05 20 50 50
Camden 61 42 64 52 68 / 05 20 20 40 40
Crestview 59 44 66 50 73 / 05 20 20 20 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 am Sunday for the following zones:
waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to 60 nm...
waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60
nm...

&&

$$

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