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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
400 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Short term [tonight and wednesday] upper low pressure area
over extreme southeast Mississippi will drift slowly westward during
the next 24 hours...becoming centered over southeast Louisiana by
late Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values will remain
between 1.6 to 1.9 inches over the forecast area along the eastern
periphery of the low pressure system through the period. Expect
ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms west of I-65 to persist
into the evening hours...with isolated coverage east of I-65. The
forecast area should then be rain-free after midnight through the
early morning hours on Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will regenerate west of I-65 during the afternoon
hours...with isolated coverage east of I-65. The forecast area
should then be rain-free after midnight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to 45 miles per hour...hail up to one-half inch in
diameter...and hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches.

Lows tonight will range from 68 to 73 degrees most locations...with
middle/upper 70s along the beaches. High temperatures Wednesday will
range from 88 to 93 degrees inland areas...with middle 80s along the
beaches. /22

Long term [thursday through tuesday]...the remains of the upper low
will merge with a digging trough moving south across the Tennessee
Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of the trough...a weak
cold front will move south toward northern portions of the area
where it will stall and gradually wash out late in the week.
Meanwhile...the weak upper trough will persist through the weekend.
This will maintain the daily afternoon and early evening scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A strong upper trough will dig across the
eastern states early next week sending another cold front toward the
area. However...the global models disagree on the exact timing of
the front and will leave the scattered showers and thunderstorms for
early next week alone for now. /13


Aviation [22.18z kmob/kbfm/kpns taf issuance]...clusters of
thunderstorms developing along the northern Gulf Coast will impact
area taf sites with periods of MVFR ceilings and IFR or lower visibility
reductions throughout the afternoon. Tempo groups added from 18z to
21z...and from 21z to 24z. Surface winds will be variable and gusty
near thunderstorms. Prevailing winds will mostly return to the south
by late afternoon becoming variable 5 knots or less overnight into
Wednesday morning. /22


Marine...a ridge of high pressure will remain place across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through the week. This pattern will maintain
a light to moderate southwest flow across the marine area. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the week. /22


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 71 89 72 92 73 / 20 20 20 40 20
Pensacola 74 90 75 90 77 / 20 20 20 40 20
Destin 76 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 20 40 20
Evergreen 69 92 70 94 71 / 30 30 20 40 20
Waynesboro 68 91 70 93 70 / 30 30 20 40 20
Camden 69 92 70 93 70 / 30 30 20 40 20
Crestview 70 91 71 93 72 / 20 20 20 30 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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