Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
414 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Short term (today and tonight)...a ridge of high pressure will
shift east of the area through the day...resulting in surface winds
becoming easterly. Meanwhile...upper level flow will become
southwesterly as a shortwave moves into the Central Plains. This
will allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 60s across the area
under clear skies...still well below normal for middle April. The
pressure gradient will relax across the region as the ridge moves
east resulting in winds that will be much lower than on Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be warmer with low 40s inland to low 50s along the
coast. /13

For Thursday through Friday night...a longwave trough over the plains
advances eastward into the eastern states through Friday. A strong
surface ridge over the east coastal states and extending into the
forecast area persists through Thursday night then weakens Friday as
a cold front approaches from the north. Modest isentropic lift seen
in 295-305k layer will be present over the forecast area on Thursday
morning then increases especially near 295k by midday near the coast
in response to an approaching shortwave and will have slight chance
probability of precipitation in this portion. Additional shortwaves in the base of the
approaching upper trough result in modest to moderate isentropic lift
over the area Thursday night. The forecast for Thursday night into
Friday night is complicated by while the GFS and GFS ensemble mean
continue the axis of the upper trough into the western Atlantic by 12z
Saturday...the European model (ecmwf)...NAM and Gem form an upper low as the trough
axis passes the forecast area. The GFS has a reinforcing surface
ridge building into the area though does develop a surface low over
the east central Gulf...both the European model (ecmwf) and Gem develop a deeper
surface low in response to this feature...though placement varies
from the northeast Gulf per the European model (ecmwf) and NAM to east of the area
per the Gem. With most guidance supporting a wetter solution for
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday...have trended towards
this general solution. Will have chance to good chance probability of precipitation for
much of the area Thursday night and Friday then slight chance probability of precipitation
follow for the eastern portion Friday night. Daytime highs will be
several degrees below normal with overnight lows near or slightly
below normal. /29

Long term (saturday through tuesday)...upper ridging builds into
the region through Saturday night then shifts off to the east
through Monday as an upper trough advances across the plains. A dry
forecast follows for Saturday through Sunday night then slight
chance probability of precipitation return for Monday as a light southerly flow gradually
returns moisture back to the region. The upper trough continues into
the eastern states through Tuesday while an associated surface low
brings a trailing and weakening cold front across the lower
Mississippi River valley but looks to remain west of the forecast
area. Will have slight chance probability of precipitation for most of the area on Tuesday
except for chance probability of precipitation over the northwest portion closer to the
approaching front. Temperatures warm during the period to a few
degrees above normal by Monday. /29

&&

Aviation...
12z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

Marine...offshore flow will decrease this morning as high pressure
moves east of the area. The high will become anchored across the
northeastern states through early Friday. This will set up a
moderate easterly flow that decreases this weekend as the high
weakens and moves east. /13

&&

Fire weather...afternoon relative humidities may drop to near
critical levels over south central Alabama today but will not
satisfy duration or other requirements. /29

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 66 47 71 56 72 / 00 05 20 50 40
Pensacola 65 50 71 58 71 / 00 05 20 50 50
Destin 64 51 70 59 69 / 00 05 20 50 50
Evergreen 68 42 71 53 71 / 00 05 10 30 40
Waynesboro 67 39 71 54 73 / 00 05 10 20 20
Camden 67 41 71 53 71 / 00 05 05 20 40
Crestview 67 39 72 55 72 / 00 05 20 50 50

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...freeze warning until 8 am Wednesday for the following zones:
Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh...Covington...
Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...Washington...Wilcox...

Florida...none.
MS...freeze warning until 8 am Wednesday for the following zones:
Greene...Perry...Wayne...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am Wednesday for the following
zones: Choctawhatchee Bay...coastal waters from Destin to
Pensacola Florida out 20 nm...coastal waters from Pensacola Florida
to Pascagoula MS out 20 nm...Mississippi Sound...northern
Mobile Bay...Pensacola Bay system...Perdido Bay...southern
Mobile Bay...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to
60 nm...waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20
to 60 nm...

&&

$$