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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDERNEATH
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. CALM
TO LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /21 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/ 

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND 
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE 
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS/OZARKS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH 
CLOUDINESS INTO THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. 
LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL 
FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL 
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE 
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAV (THE MAV HAS NOT DONE WELL RECENTLY 
WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE DRY SOILS)...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW 
AS THE MET DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN GENERALLY IN 
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS STAY THIN 
ENOUGH...THEN IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE 
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT 
WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING IS LOST. ONLY A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY CHOCTAW COUNTY LATE THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FURTHER 
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 
60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S NORTH OF WAYNESBORO/BUTLER. 34/JFB

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...A MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER 
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE EAST 
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND BY 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO 
EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A WARM FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS OR PUSH SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE 
BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP WEST OF THE 
ALABAMA RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE 
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 
FROM THE WEST...WITH LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND 
SHEAR REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK 
OF THE SYSTEM...SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE-HALF 
INCH NEAR DESTIN TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND 
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL 
SECTIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 54 TO 59 DEGREES. LOWS 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 34 AND 39 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND 
FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES 
ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND 
LOOKS TO HAVE A DRY SLOT IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE 
TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN DRY 
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  MAY SEE A CONTINUING 
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN 
COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROF MEANWHILE AMPLIFIES OVER 
THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SUNDAY AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN 
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF WHILE BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO 
THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT 
OVER THE AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE 
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS TRACK EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS SMALL POPS RETURNING 
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.  THERE IS THE 
POTENTIAL FOR A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE AREA WHICH COULD PORTEND 
STRONG STORMS FOR TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR FOR NOW. /29

AVIATION...
17.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A 
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY. 
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST 
AND SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE TX COAST. THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF 
AL/NW FL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND SOME STRONG 
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF 
WATERS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF 
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AND 
GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM 
SYSTEM. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT FRI/FRI NIGHT...BUT DIMINISH BACK 
TO 1-2 FT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  65  47  63  55 /  00  10  20  60  70 
PENSACOLA   42  64  49  63  58 /  00  05  05  50  70 
DESTIN      44  63  49  64  59 /  00  05  05  40  50 
EVERGREEN   36  62  41  61  49 /  00  05  05  60  80 
WAYNESBORO  37  60  42  58  44 /  00  10  30  70  80 
CAMDEN      36  61  40  56  45 /  00  10  05  70  80 
CRESTVIEW   35  65  43  64  52 /  00  05  05  40  60 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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