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Area forecast discussion...aviation and update 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1145 PM CST sun Jan 25 2015

Aviation...26/06z issuance...VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Surface winds have decreased some this evening...mainly westerly
around 5 to 10 knots (except at the coast where still breezy and
gusty up to around 15 knots at times). Stronger northwesterly winds
of 20 to 25 knots continue only a few thousand feet off the surface
however. With this...strong and gusty northwesterly surface flow is
expected to return after sunrise tomorrow as mixing begins. 12/ds changes to public or marine forecasts required this
evening. 12/ds

Previous discussion follows...

Short term [tonight through Monday night]...a vigorous shortwave
currently over the middle south will move into the southeastern states
tonight and off the southeast Atlantic coast on Monday. This system
will push a cold front through the region this evening and will be
east of the area by midnight. A lack of moisture ahead of the front
will result in a dry frontal passage over most of the area. A very
brief isolated shower cannot be ruled out across the far northern
areas (i.E. Butler...Camden... greenville) this evening due to the
strong upper forcing of the shortwave. However...the chance of
measurable rain is still less than 20% over those areas. There will
be an increase in low level cloud cover late tonight...especially
over the northern half of the area where skies will turn mostly
cloudy. Winds will stay breezy out of the southwest ahead of the
front...with gusty northwest winds continuing along the coast after
the frontal passage late tonight. Lows will drop into the upper 30s/lower 40s.

Deep layer northwest flow will result in a dry and cool day on
Monday across the region with partly to mostly cloudy skies early in
the morning becoming mostly sunny by midday. Frequent gusts of 25-30
miles per hour likely by middle morning as daytime mixing brings down stronger
winds above the surface. Highs will range from the low 50s well
inland with upper 50s along the coast. 34/jfb

An amplified pattern aloft is forecast Monday night with a deep
trough over the middle Atlantic and upper ridging extending
northward...up into the Southern Plains. This results in a dry deep
layer northwest flow. A light northwest wind and cool temperatures
are forecast Monday night as the central Gulf Coast is positioned
between a surface high over the western Gulf and a departing surface
low...lifting up across the middle Atlantic and New England states.
Overnight low temperatures look to mostly be in the middle 30s interior
to lower 40s coastal zones. /10

Long term [tuesday through sunday]...with upper trough off the middle
Atlantic coast and upper ridging from Mexico into Texas...dry deep
layer northwesterly flow remains parked over the area with a rainfree
forecast to start off the medium range. Tuesday's highs in the lower

While the longwave trough continues slowly off into the western
Atlantic...a middle level shortwave amplifies into an upper trough which
advances into the eastern states on Thursday and later into the
western Atlantic. An associated surface low moves east out of the
Central Plains and across the Ohio River valley...bringing a cold
front through the forecast area Thursday night. Will maintain a small
chance of light rain over the eastern portion of the area Thursday
night as marginal moisture...along with frontal forcing looks to be
sufficient enough. Surface high builds into the region in the wake of
the front over the weekend. Despite this...a small chance of light
rain possible by late Saturday into Sunday as eastward moving middle
level impulses in the flow aloft operate on marginal moisture levels.

Temperatures warm to a few degrees above normal on Thursday ahead of
the front...then will be near or a few degrees below normal for the
remainder of the outlook. /10


VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Winds will continue
to increase out of the southwest this afternoon with frequent gusts
around 25 knots. Winds shift to northwest by late tonight (roughly
around 06z) as a cold front moves through the area. While gusts will
not be quite as strong will still be breezy through much
of the night...especially along the coast. Frequent gusts around 25
knots are likely to redevelop by 14-15z Monday. Scattered clouds with
bases around 2500 feet can be expected from prior to sunrise through
middle Monday morning. An occasionally broken MVFR ceiling is possible
during this time. 34/jfb


Marine...strong west to northwest winds will develop late this
afternoon through tonight ahead of and in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal
waters and occasional gusts to gale force are possible over the open
Gulf waters tonight. Seas build to 5-7 feet within 20 nm and 7-9 feet
from 20-60nm. Winds will slowly diminish on Monday as high pressure
moves in from the west. However...winds will remain near 20 knots over
the Gulf waters through Monday afternoon and we have extended the
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm Monday for those areas.

A light to moderate offshore flow prevail Monday night through
Wednesday morning. Winds become light and gradually veer through
Wednesday as a surface ridge moves overhead. A brief period of onshore
winds expected Thursday ahead of another cold front...with moderate
to strong offshore winds redeveloping on Friday in the wake of that
frontal passage. 34/jfb


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 40 56 39 64 37 / 05 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 42 57 41 64 41 / 05 00 00 00 00
Destin 45 56 43 64 43 / 05 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 39 53 35 63 34 / 10 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 39 54 36 65 34 / 10 00 00 00 00
Camden 39 51 34 63 34 / 10 00 00 00 00
Crestview 41 55 36 66 36 / 05 00 00 00 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... current risk until 6 PM Monday for the following zones:
lower Baldwin...lower Mobile... current risk until 6 PM Monday for the following zones:
coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...coastal Santa Rosa...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon Monday for the following zones:
Choctawhatchee Bay...Mississippi Sound...northern Mobile
Bay...Pensacola Bay system...Perdido Bay...southern Mobile

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Monday for the following zones:
coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 nm...
coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 20
nm...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to 60 nm...
waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60



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