Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
358 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Short term [tonight through Monday night]...an upper level low
continues to progress eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean this
afternoon...while a ridge of high pressure aloft continues to build
across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions. A surface
ridge of high pressure stretches from the northeastern U.S. To the
northern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Afternoon visible satellite
imagery continues to show a deck of low clouds gradually eroding from
north to south across south central Alabama...while the deck has
remained fairly solid across the northwest Florida Panhandle.
Temperatures have only managed to warm into the middle 60s at best
across much of the northwest Florida Panhandle...and in the upper 60s
to lower 70s across south central Alabama following The Breaks in
cloud cover. Temperatures have warmed well into the 70s over the
remainder of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi where there
has been plentiful sun today.

Low cloud cover should gradually erode across the northwest Florida
Panhandle late this afternoon into early this evening...with the
axis of low level moisture and associated stratus deck mainly
becoming focused offshore. Dry weather...continued cool temperatures
and light northeast to east winds are expected overnight as surface
high pressure ridges across the County warning forecast area. Patchy fog development cannot
be ruled out near the southwest Alabama coast tonight. Confidence
remained low enough to keep mention out of the forecast for now and
will let next shifts monitor. Upper ridging otherwise builds over
the area tonight into Monday morning...followed by some increase in
layer moisture Monday afternoon as zonal flow returns on the base of
an upper level trough moving into the Mississippi Valley region. We
expect some increase in cloud cover Monday...but probability of precipitation look to remain
well below mentionable levels through 00z Tuesday. High temperatures
Monday look to range from the lower 70s near the coast to the middle
70s to around 80 over interior portions of the County warning forecast area. /21

Upper ridge dampens and moves east Monday night with a broad trough of
low pressure moving across the lower Mississippi River valley. An
attendant cold front is forecast to drop down into the Appalachians
to the Upper Texas coast. The deeper layer moisture looks to remain
off to the northwest of the local area closer to the frontal axis.
Forecasters call for a slight chance of showers for the far northwest
zones late Monday night where the eastern edge of the deeper moisture
moves in. Elsewhere...Monday night looks to be rainfree. Mild
overnight lows with numbers ranging from 53 to 56 interior to 58 to
61 coast. /10

Long term [tuesday through Sunday...the front moves through the forecast
area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and stalls just offshore.
Deep layer moisture increases within the frontal zone and along with
layer lift...chances of showers and storms trend higher. The frontal
boundary will be weakening while moving slowly through the forecast
area so expect scattered convective coverage Tuesday then small probability of precipitation
sinking from north to south Tuesday night. May see a few strong
storms during the day on Tuesday. 10/29

Longwave upper ridging builds into and across the eastern states
through Thursday while an upper trough advances into the plains. The
stalled frontal boundary offshore dissipates while a return flow
becomes established over the forecast area. The upper trough weakens
while advancing into the eastern states on Friday leaving a fairly
zonal flow over the region while a surface ridge over the northern
Gulf maintains a light southerly flow over the forecast area into the
weekend. Will have a dry forecast Wednesday/Thursday then a small
chance of showers/storms remain in the forecast Friday through Sunday
as deep layer moisture increases. May see isolated daytime sea breeze
initiated convection. Temperatures will be a few degrees above
seasonable values through the period. 10/29

&&

Aviation [18z terminal forecast discussion]...MVFR ceilings will
impact kpns for the next few hours...with indications of gradual
erosion of ceilings/return to VFR conditions by late afternoon. VFR
conditions look to prevail at kmob/kbfm this afternoon. A general VFR
forecast continues tonight through Monday morning...but with low
level moisture remaining in place...will continue to evaluate for
potential MVFR ceilings late tonight into Monday morning. Northeast winds
around 10 knots should continue into the afternoon...with a gradual
shift to east/southeast winds tonight into Monday morning.

&&

Marine...a broad surface ridge of high pressure will settle over
the central Gulf Coast region through Monday. A light to
occasionally moderate easterly flow is expected tonight followed by
a developing light onshore flow pattern Monday afternoon and
evening. A light to moderate onshore daytime flow with light
offshore nighttime flow is expected to persist through midweek. Seas
continue to subside through this evening...and are expected to range
from 1 to 2 feet for most of the week. /21

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 55 77 58 80 60 / 00 05 10 30 20
Pensacola 57 75 59 78 63 / 00 05 10 30 20
Destin 58 73 61 75 64 / 00 05 10 30 20
Evergreen 50 79 54 83 58 / 00 05 10 50 10
Waynesboro 53 79 55 81 56 / 00 10 20 40 10
Camden 51 78 54 81 57 / 00 05 10 50 10
Crestview 51 79 53 82 57 / 00 05 10 40 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$