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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
357 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Short term (tonight and friday)...scattered showers and storms
across the forecast area late this afternoon...most lifting slowly
north. Due to the slow movement...some brief flooding and ponding
is possible. A few strong storms have been noted...but severe
threat is low. Once the sun GOES down and we lose daytime
heating...expect coverage of showers and storms to decrease
through the evening hours...persisting a little later into the
evening over interior eastern zones than western zones. After
midnight most of the rainfall will have ended...although an isolated
shower will remain possible overnight. Patchy fog will likely
develop overnight as well...especially over inland areas...but not
expected to be widespread dense at this time. For Friday...little
change in pattern. Residual outflow boundaries...sea breeze
interactions and daytime heating will once again be the primary
forcing mechanism Friday...for yet another day of scattered showers
and thunderstorms (mainly late morning through afternoon hours). Low
temperatures tonight middle to upper 60s inland and low 70s coastal. Highs
on Friday in the upper 80s inland and middle 80s coastal. 12/ds

Long term...Friday night through Thursday...upper level blocking
ridge pattern persist over the eastern Seaboard as a broad area of
low pressure prevails over northern Gulf region through next week.
A weak upper level trough is anchored over our area through the
weekend...dynamics remain weak but enough divergence aloft to allow
afternoon development of thunderstorms along the seabreeze front
with convection tapering off during the evening hours. By Sunday
night the upper level wave over the region closes and becomes cutoff
from the westerlies. This low then remains quasi-stationary over
the region through the forecast period...minor shortwave troughs
rippling around this feature will tap into the instability
(especially during the afternoon) and deep layer moisture pool (lyr
precipitable waters ...1.50 to 1.7 inches)overlying the area. Scattered or
possibly numerous showers (depending on the position of the cutoff
low each day)are expected to develop late morning through the
afternoon and generally dissipate during the evening. Main threat
aside from lightning will likely be localized flooding...ponding of
water in poor drainage and urban environments. If model projections
remain correct...severe weather should remain confined west near the
stalled out frontal boundary and where there's some dry air
intrusion into the western edge of the broad deep layer moist pool.
There should be little variation in daily high and low temperatures.
High temperatures will generally climb into the middle 80s with lows
bottoming out in the low 70s to upper 60s. /08 jw

&&

Aviation...28/18z forecast cycle..generally VFR conditions
this evening except for in and near scattered showers and
thunderstorms where MVFR conditions will prevail. Occasional brief IFR
conditions near and in the strongest storms. Shower and storm
activity becoming more isolated after midnight tonight. During the
early predawn morning hours Friday...patchy fog will possibly
develop...with MVFR (maybe only ifr) visible and ceilings in some locations.
Generally light southeasterly surface wind flow expected through the
period. 12/ds

&&

Marine...a ridge of high pressure will persist over the southeast
states and north central Gulf through early next week leading
to a mostly light to moderate southeasterly wind flow through
the forecast period. Higher winds and seas will occur over the near
shore waters during the afternoon and early evening hours through
Monday...mainly due to afternoon heating well inland inducing sea
breeze. Winds and seas will be higher near isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Friday...decreasing over
the weekend and then returning Sunday into the early part of next
week. 12/ds



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 69 85 70 86 68 / 20 30 10 20 10
Pensacola 72 85 70 87 70 / 20 30 10 10 10
Destin 73 85 73 82 75 / 20 30 10 10 10
Evergreen 68 88 66 92 67 / 30 30 10 20 10
Waynesboro 67 87 66 89 67 / 20 30 20 20 10
Camden 67 88 65 91 67 / 30 30 20 20 10
Crestview 68 89 67 90 68 / 20 30 10 20 10

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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