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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
730 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Update...did a quick update to current zone forecast to shift the
heavier precipitation and better rain chances further to the west than
earlier anticipated. Latest model guidance now shows the deeper
moisture remaining more to the west then previous runs. Latest
satellite and regional radar loops support this reasoning. Further
updates may be necessary later today. 32/ee


Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Short term (today and tonight)...latest satellite loops continue to
show a large area of high moisture content...precipitable waters up to 2.25
inches...covering most of the County warning forecast area this morning including the
adjacent Gulf waters stretching out to 60 nm...resulting in mostly
cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through this afternoon then drying out slowly generally from east to
west...precipitable waters lowering to 1.6 in or lower...overnight and early Sun
morning. At the surface a weak surface trough generally stretching from west
to east over the northern Gulf will continue to wash out through
tonight as the upper ridge over much of the southeast
Continental U.S....western Atlantic and eastern Gulf continues dominate aloft.
To the north and northwest a passing middle level short wave over the
Central Plains moving east will continue to dig as is tracks east
towards the MS River Valley through this afternoon then begin to
lift northward this evening and overnight leading to less forcing
aloft this evening and overnight...resulting in much less coverage
of showers and thunderstorms tonight and early Sun morning. With
temperatures somewhat moderated with the widespread cloudiness over the
region today believe the best chance of thunderstorms will occur
over the adjacent Gulf waters early today then reform inland by late
this morning and this afternoon as surface temperatures climb to the upper 80s
to lower 90s for most inland areas. Most of the model guidance
depicts a better moisture plume to the west over MS and la shifting
mostly north through tonight leading ME to keep scattered probability of precipitation over
most of the eastern half to the County warning forecast area through this afternoon with
likely probability of precipitation over the western half. As a result have adjusted todays
probability of precipitation a tad lowering probability of precipitation a tad for most of the eastern half of the
forecast area through this afternoon. The main concern for todays
convection will be periods of heavy rain...gusty winds mostly in the
30 to 40 miles per hour range and frequent cloud to ground lightning. The
strongest thunderstorms look to occur over the western and northern
sections of the County warning forecast area mainly this afternoon due to the better forcing
aloft. As for temperatures due to the better cloud cover today will lean
towards the cooler met guidance for high temperatures today and continue
with the warmer met guidance overnight due to continued cloudiness.
Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for most
inland areas and the middle to upper 80s closer to the coast.
Tonights lows will range from the lower to middle 70s for most
inland areas and the upper 70s to near 80 near the immediate coast.

This afternoon's wet microburst risk will be moderate for most
areas...but high over most of southeast MS and parts of inland SW Alabama
mostly west of the I-65 corridor.

Long term (sunday through saturday)...the upper trough lifts away
from the area on Sunday with the upper flow becoming increasingly
zonal. Upper level ridging will then build across the area through
much of the week with surface ridging from the western Atlantic
across the Gulf Coast. This will result in a typical Summer time
pattern with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Rain chances may increase some late in the week as both
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a tropical wave approaching the area. High
temperatures will generally be in the low to middle 90s through the
week with lows in the low to middle 70s away from the coast...upper 70s
near the coast. /13

Aviation [30.12z issuance]...MVFR to VFR conditions through 31.12z.
Could see a brief period of IFR to MVFR conditions mainly in and
around some of the stronger thunderstorms through this afternoon.
Winds will be mostly south increasing to 8 to 12 knots through this
afternoon...diminishing to 3 to 6 knots overnight through midday
Sunday. 32/ee

Marine...a weak surface trough of low pressure over the northern
Gulf will continue to weaken through tonight as high pressure
becomes better established over the eastern and north central Gulf.
A moderate southerly flow will continue through early Sunday then
gradually diminish through midweek. Seas will be slow to diminish
through early next week due to a long fetch length stretching well
offshore through Sunday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered
to numerous showers through early this evening followed by less
coverage Sunday through midweek. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 91 77 93 75 92 / 60 20 30 10 30
Pensacola 89 78 92 78 92 / 40 20 30 10 30
Destin 87 79 90 79 92 / 30 20 30 10 30
Evergreen 91 73 95 72 95 / 50 20 30 10 20
Waynesboro 89 72 93 72 94 / 70 30 30 10 20
Camden 92 72 95 72 95 / 60 30 30 10 20
Crestview 93 75 95 72 95 / 40 20 30 10 30


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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