Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1200 am CDT Monday may 4 2015

Aviation...
04.06z terminal forecast discussion...
VFR conditions to start off this taf period with a few low to middle
clouds located near the immediate coast. Still looking for the
potential of patchy MVFR to IFR visibility reductions due to fog
across portions of the region mainly between 04.09-13z. VFR expected
Monday with increasing southeast winds...especially near the coast
where speeds of 10-15 knots with a few gusts around 20 knots are
expected. Isolated rain showers possible nar the coast Monday afternoon but
potential is too low to include mention at this time. /21

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 921 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

Update...
satellite imagery shows a narrow plume of low to middle level moisture
moving northwestward across the north central Gulf of Mexico this
evening...and radar has indicated some isolated showers developing
over our western marine zones within a region of weak isentropic
lift. This narrow axis of limited moisture should continue to move
west/northwest through the late evening hours...and will include a mention of
isolated rain showers over our western marine zones prior to 06z.
A few hints that isolated showers could develop as far north as
stone/George MS after 06z...but the overall chance of measurable
rain looks to remain below mentionable levels. High res/short range
model data still continues to signal the development of patchy fog
mainly over interior portions of the region away from the immediate
coast late tonight/early Monday morning...which is already mentioned
in the grids. The ongoing forecast looks to be in good shape. /21

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 60 82 59 83 60 / 05 10 05 05 05
Pensacola 65 81 63 81 65 / 05 10 05 05 05
Destin 65 82 65 81 66 / 05 10 05 05 05
Evergreen 54 84 57 85 57 / 00 05 05 00 05
Waynesboro 55 84 57 84 59 / 05 05 05 05 05
Camden 54 84 58 85 57 / 00 05 05 00 05
Crestview 53 86 57 85 58 / 00 10 05 05 05

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations