Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1148 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016
Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.
06z issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. West to northwest winds have settled to 10 knots or less
around most of the local terminals late this evening. West to
northwest winds are expected to increase to around 15 knots with a
few gusts of 20-25 knots again by late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
Previous discussion... /issued 1008 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016/
Discussion...see updated information for land and marine areas below.
Update...the mslp gradient has slackened a bit across the region
this evening and surface observations reflect a continued decrease
in wind speed across most of our area. Latest observations from near
the immediate coast and beaches also reveal a downward trend in wind
speed/gusts and the latest guidance from the rap13/hrrr indicate
that while breezy conditions may continue near the coast
overnight...widespread wind gusts over 30 miles per hour no longer appear
likely. We went ahead and dropped the Wind Advisory near the
immediate coast tonight. Temperatures currently appear on track. /21
Marine update...marine observations indicate that wind speeds have
subsided over the protected waters this evening...and gale force
gusts are no longer expected. We have downgraded the Gale Warning to
a Small Craft Advisory for all bays and sounds through Tuesday night.
Gale warnings continue for the open Gulf waters out to 60 nm where
frequent gusts to gale force will likely continue through early
Tuesday afternoon. Gusts to 40 knots will be especially possible well
offshore tonight into Tuesday morning. Hazardous conditions for small
craft will continue Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night before winds
and seas subside Wednesday. /21
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 am CST Wednesday for
Gale Warning until 1 PM CST Tuesday for gmz650-655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for gmz630>635.
This product is also available on the web at: