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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
841 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Update...updated coastal waters forecast and zone forecast product forecasts to remove headlines (for
Small Craft Advisory and high rip current risk). Otherwise no chanes
or adjustment needed...except for decreasing winds in grided data ever
so slightly over the marine area for this evening. Will headline coastal waters forecast
with small craft exercise caution for the overnight hours. 12/ds


Previous discussion... /issued 358 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015/

Short term [tonight through Tuesday night]...the cloud deck situated
across the northeastern part of our County Warning Area has finally scattered out
this afternoon. The upper trough axis continues to quickly shift
east of the region with a ridge building in behind it. All of this
will allow for the current gusty conditions across the area to drop
off overnight. Clearing skies and relaxing winds through the
overnight hours will allow temperatures to fall into the middle to
upper 30s across much of the area with low 40s closer to the coast.
Highs on Tuesday will range from the middle 60s across southeast MS and
northwest Florida Panhandle to low 60s across south central Alabama. 07/mb

Well defined high level trough axis hugs the eastern Seaboard...
while an amplified upper ridge of high pressure noses northward from
Mexico...up across the plains Tuesday night. A deep layer...dry
northwest flow pattern remains in place. Axis of surface high moves
across the upper Midwest to the central Gulf Coast...resulting in a
light northerly wind pattern. Overnight lows are forecast to range
in the middle 30s over the interior to the upper 30s/lower 40s close to
the coast. /10

Long term [wednesday through monday]...surface high shifts more to
the east of the area on Wednesday...resulting in a light return
flow. Deep layer moisture though remains limited and a rainfree
forecast continues through Wednesday night. Highs near 60 on
Wednesday will be near seasonable. Overnight lows Wednesday night
range from 37 to 42 interior to middle/upper 40s at the coast.

A series of well defined shortwaves advance across the plains and
phase into an upper trough over the eastern states Thursday night.
An associated surface low passes well north of the region and brings
a trailing cold front through the area Thursday night and sufficient
moisture looks to be in place to support slight chance of light rain
for much of the area with the frontal passage. A surface high
builds into the region through Saturday while the upper trough moves
off into the Atlantic on Friday. Another upper trough advances
eastward across the plains Saturday and into the Mississippi River
valley late Sunday.

Rainfree conditions expected Friday and Friday night...then will
have a slight chance of showers developing over the western portions
of the local area Saturday. Rain chances increase a bit while
spreading east Saturday night and Sunday as a series of middle level
shortwaves move across the area and interacts with better moisture
profiles. A cold front is also prognosticated to be making passage late

Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 60s...ranging from the middle 50s
to near 60 for the remainder of the period. Lows will mostly
be in the 40s. 10/29

26.18z taf issuance...
VFR ceilings and visibility expected through the forecast period. Northwest
winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue through the afternoon with
gusts to 25 knots. Winds will relax overnight and pick back up in
the middle morning hours on Tuesday. 07/mb

Marine...strong northwest flow will continue to relax through the
evening hours tonight. Light to moderate northerly flow will continue
through midweek becoming south late in the week ahead of another cold
front. Beyond tonight...winds and seas will remain below advisory
criteria through the end of the forecast period. 07/mb


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 39 65 38 60 43 / 00 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 42 64 39 58 45 / 00 00 00 00 00
Destin 44 63 42 57 48 / 00 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 36 62 34 60 37 / 00 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 34 64 35 60 40 / 00 00 00 00 00
Camden 36 61 34 59 37 / 00 00 00 00 00
Crestview 39 63 34 60 37 / 00 00 00 00 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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