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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
452 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Near term /now through Saturday night/...dense fog over interior MS
and parts of southwest Alabama through middle morning. Persistence forecast
gives way to a transitory period by tonight. Essentially upper ridge
weakens and surface pressure begins to fall. One more warm and dry day
for this Saturday with highs once again in the middle and upper 70s
under partly cloudy skies...albeit mostly cloud at times across
interior southeast Mississippi and adjacent border region with SW
Alabama counties. The main focus this period will be on a potential
dense fog event this evening and overnight in response to the
weakening surface pressure gradient. Winds become light southeasterly
this afternoon and this persists from this direction overnight.
Overnight lows will be in the middle 50s over the interior to lower 60s
along the beaches. Have added a mention of 'ares of dense fog' after
9 PM this upcoming evening first over SW zones and then developing to
the NE with time during the late night hours. /23 jmm

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...deep upper low/trough over
the western Continental U.S. Shifts east to the upper Midwest through early
Tuesday. Well to the south and east a broad upper ridge of high pressure
mostly over the Gulf of Mexico begins to the weaken on the northern
side as main upper trough/deep low shifts east. To the north and west
from Texas to the middle MS river a series of weak middle level impulses track
east northeast from Texas to the middle Atlantic region with enough weak
lift passes just to the north of the forecast area allowing maybe a
few sprinkles or light rain showers to track northeast over extreme
northwest parts of the forecast area or generally north and west of a
line stretching from Thomasville Alabama to Wiggins MS...with the best
coverage during this time frame occurring Monday night and early Tuesday as
main upper system shifts further east to the upper Midwest. Rainfall
totals in the these areas will range from 05 to .10 inches sun
through Monday night. Day and night time temperatures will remain above
seasonal levels sun through Monday night with highs in the middle 70s for
all areas on sun...and the low 70s well inland sun and the middle 70s
for all areas to the south. Lows will be in the low to middle 60s Sun
night and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday night into early Tuesday.
Some patchy fog will also be likely in the these areas especially Monday

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/....main upper trough to the north
will continue to track east-northeast with most of the middle level forcing
becoming sheared across the middle section of the country generally
from North Texas to the middle Atlantic region Tuesday through Wednesday evening.
With this pattern a weakening cold front at the surface begins to
approach the central Gulf Coast region by Tuesday night into early Wednesday
moving across the forecast area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Low stratus and light rain will proceed the front due to the
shallow depth of colder air...eventually clearing out later in the
week as a reinforcing shot of colder/drier air moves in from the
west. This pattern later in the week is supported by a stronger short
wave trough pushing south and east along the base of the original
trough...digging over the middle section of the County allowing the
colder/drier air to shift south and east across the deep south and
northern Gulf. The main concern from Tuesday through Thursday will be a mix of
low stratus and patchy fog each night and morning along with light
rain or drizzle through the period. Expect little to no sun through
the extended period. Temperatures will remain above seasonal levels on Tuesday
ahead of the front and fall to near seasonal levels Wednesday through Friday.
Highs Tuesday will be in the middle 70s ahead of the front then in the upper
50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Friday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the low
to middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s close to the coast.


Marine...small craft exercise caution early this morning beyond
20nm. Otherwise...a light to moderate easterly flow will become
light southeasterly for the remainder of the weekend. A cold front
is next expected to move across the marine area Tuesday night with
an offshore flow increasing in the wake of the front through the
remainder of the period. /23 jmm


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 76 59 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 75 58 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 75 59 73 61 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 78 56 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 75 58 74 57 / 0 10 10 10
Camden 75 55 76 57 / 0 0 10 10
Crestview 79 56 77 51 / 0 0 0 0


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for alz051-052-

MS...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for msz067-075-



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