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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
409 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Short term [tonight and monday]...overall pattern has changed
little since yesterday and we dont expect any significant changes in
the short term period. A weak surface low has developed along the quasi-
stationary frontal boundary over the northeast Gulf. The circulation
is clearly noticeably in both klh radar data and visible satellite
imagery over the Apalachee Bay just south of Tallahassee. NHC has
given this a very small chance for development over the next several
days...but anything along those lines would likely occur along the
southeast U.S. Atlantic coast as a developing upper trough over the
eastern Seaboard lifts the surface low up to the northeast from its
current location. The 12z European model (ecmwf) appears to have initialized better
than GFS with surface low...and with only minor differences noted between
the two models...will lean toward the European model (ecmwf). The weak surface low is
expected to likely be over southeast Georgia by daybreak
Monday...then weaken while lifting a little further north during the
day. A trailing surface trough lingers over the region through Monday...but
with the lower dewpoints still in place over the region rain chances
will continue to be rather low...especially with the better lift and
dynamics associated with the low pressure lifting northeast away from
the area and subsidence to the west of this feature continuing.
Otherwise...strengthening surface high pressure will begin ridging west
across the central and eastern Gulf late tonight through Monday. This
will result in the diurnally driven light and variable Windfall to
increase slightly and become predominately southwesterly by the end
of the day Monday. Low temperatures tonight very similar to last
night...ranging from the upper 60s over northern interior zones to
the low to middle 70s down toward the coast. Daytime high temperatures
trend upward slightly on Monday...climbing into the middle to upper 90s
in the interior and low to middle 90s near the coast. Heat indices
generally climb to around 100...with isolated locations peaking
around 105 degrees. 12/ds

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is moderate.

[Monday night through tuesday]...ridging aloft across the western
half of the Continental U.S. Continues to briefly flatten out through the early
part of the week. In the wake of a surface low that quickly exits the
northeastern Gulf and Florida Panhandle early in the week...ridging at the
surface builds in across the Gulf. This pattern will re-establish
weak onshore flow...especially across the southern portion of the area
..allowing moisture to spread across coastal areas on Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered convection possible along the coast on Tuesday
..but keeping probability of precipitation around 20 percent for now.

Drier air across the northern half of the area will continue to
suppress convection through Tuesday. Despite lower dewpoints across
the that area...temperatures in the upper 90s equates to heat indices
in the 102-105 range. 07/mb

Long term [wednesday through saturday]...middle and upper level
ridging across the western half of the Continental U.S. Slowly amplifies and
slides east late in the week. Surface ridging becomes better
established across the Gulf...increasing onshore flow by middle week.
As southerly flow persists...moisture returns to the entire area by
middle week...evident in modeled precipitable water values of 1.7-2.0
inches late in the week. Scattered convection expected on Wednesday
..more widespread than previous days but still focused along and
south of the I-65 corridor. By weeks end...models show another weak
frontal boundary possibly sliding through the area. Bumped up probability of precipitation to
the 30-50 percent range across the area...but currently thinking that
the majority of convection will remain focused across the southeastern
half of the area.

Daytime highs will continue a slow downward trend...topping out in
the low 90s through the weekend. Higher dewpoints will allow heat
indices in rise into the 102-105 range for the remainder of the
week...slightly lower by the weekend with indices of 99-103.
Overnight temperatures in the middle to low 70s inland with upper 70s
along the coast. 07/mb


03/00z taf issuance...VFR conditions expected to prevail
throughout the period except in and around afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Expecting little more than isolated
coverage of showers and storms for remainder of this afternoon...
same for Monday afternoon. Due to continued isolated nature of
convection...confidence still not high enough to bring convection to
any of our taf locations...and will only highlight thunderstorms in the vicinity. Light and
variable winds (offshore component at night and onshore during the
day) through early Monday...then becoming more southwesterly by late
Monday and continuing into middle week. 12/ds


Marine...quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the northern Gulf
with weak surface low near the Florida Big Bend region...over Apalachee
Bay. This low is expected to lift northeast toward southeast Georgia
and the Carolinas through Monday...then continue up the East Coast
through much of the upcoming week. Meanwhile...a building ridge of
high pressure will push west across the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico through late week. With this...a light and somewhat variable
diurnal wind flow over the marine area late this weekend will become
more consistently out of the southwest for most of the week...and
increase slightly to moderate at times (especially near shore during
the afternoon hours). Generally small seas (2 to 3 feet max) through
forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the
marine area...especially late afternoon and early morning. 12/ds


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 74 96 75 96 76 / 05 10 10 20 10
Pensacola 77 93 77 94 77 / 05 20 20 20 20
Destin 83 90 79 93 79 / 10 20 20 20 20
Evergreen 69 97 71 98 72 / 05 05 05 10 05
Waynesboro 69 98 71 98 73 / 05 05 05 05 05
Camden 68 97 70 98 72 / 05 05 05 05 05
Crestview 71 98 72 97 73 / 10 20 10 20 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...



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