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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
624 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...MVFR conditions in patchy fog this morning will
become VFR later this morning. VFR conditions will then prevail
through the forecast. /13


Previous discussion... /issued 403 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016/

Near term /now through Friday night/...a stationary front to our north
will get shoved southward late this afternoon as a shortwave moves
across the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front...another warm and dry
day is expected. Highs will warm into the low and middle 70s in most
locations. The lack of significant moisture will keep conditions dry
with only some clouds ahead of the front. The cold front will surge
south into the Gulf Friday night as high pressure builds southward
across the region. A colder air mass will move into the area in the
wake of the front. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 30s and low
40s. /13

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...a longwave trough over
the easternmost states moves off into the western Atlantic through
Sunday leaving a fairly zonal flow over the forecast area. A large
surface high centered over the eastern plains builds into the eastern
states through Sunday with light northerly winds over the marine area
switching to a southeasterly flow. Another upper trough meanwhile
advances/evolves over the central states Sunday into Sunday
night...with an associated surface low advancing across the Southern
Plains. Deep layer moisture increases gradually and modestly through
the period...with precipitable water values near 0.4 inches Saturday
morning increasing to around 0.75 inches Sunday night...values which
are near climatological normal for this time of year. Have continued
with dry conditions through Sunday evening...then modest isentropic
lift combined with the better deep layer moisture will support a
return of slight chance to chance probability of precipitation late Sunday night. Highs on
Saturday will range from around 50 well inland to the middle 50s closer
to the coast followed by highs on Sunday in the middle to upper 50s.
Lows Saturday night will be fairly cold and range from the middle 20s
well inland to the lower 30s closer to the coast...then warmer
overnight lows follow for Sunday night with lower 40s inland ranging
to upper 40s closer to the coast. /29

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...the upper trough over the
central states advances across the eastern states and into the
western Atlantic through the period. A surface low located near the
Sabine River valley Monday morning deepens while advancing eastward
across the Gulf coastal states through Monday night...meanwhile
bringing a cold front through the forecast area. Deep layer moisture
increases ahead of the front with precipitable water values reaching
around 1.1 inches or about 150 percent of normal. Considering this
and at least moderate forcing along and ahead of the front...will
have probability of precipitation increasing to likely to categorical on Monday...with the
highest probability of precipitation generally west of I-65 where the best forcing will be
present. Likely probability of precipitation follow for the eastern and northern portion of
the area with chance probability of precipitation further to the west Monday evening...then
tapering off to dry conditions by Tuesday morning as much drier deep
layer air flows into the region. While the 850 mb flow increases to
40-45 knots ahead of the front on Monday...instability remains rather
limited with MLCAPES of 100-300 j/kg. Have continued with including
isolated embedded thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening...and at
this point the potential for strong storms remains limited and will
continue to monitor. Dry conditions follow for the remainder of the
forecast period as a surface high builds from the plains into the
eastern states in the wake of this system. Highs on Monday will be
mostly in the middle 60s with lower 60s for Tuesday before trending
gradually warmer to the upper 60s/around 70 by Thursday. Lows Monday
night will range from the lower 40s inland to middle/upper 40s near the
coast and trend a bit warmer through Thursday night to range from the
middle 40s inland to around 50 closer to the coast. /29

Marine...moderate southwesterly winds will continue today ahead of
an approaching cold front. The front is expected to move south
across the marine area tonight...with a moderate offshore flow in
the wake of the front. Moderate offshore winds will continue into
Saturday...gradually becoming onshore by Monday in advance of the
next cold front. A strong offshore flow is expected to return Monday
night...after the front moves across the area. /13


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