Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
439 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015
Short term (today and tonight)...a cold front just entering
northwest portions of the area will rapidly move east across the
area this morning as an upper level trough digs across the eastern
states. Ahead of the front...a few light showers are moving
eastward across the Gulf Coast. They will be almost out of the area
by daybreak and will not amount to much. Skies will clear from the
northwest this morning as a drier and cooler airmass moves into the
area. A shortwave moving down the backside of the upper trough will
move across the southeastern states this afternoon bringing partly
cloudy skies across the northern half of the area. However...dry
conditions will continue. Highs today will only reach the low 60s
across the northern zones with middle and upper 60s along the coast.
Temperatures tonight will be much colder than we have seen lately
with lows in the middle 30s inland to upper 40s along the coast. 13/jc
(saturday and sunday)...a surface high pressure ridge will drift east
across the region Saturday and Sunday. Upper trough moving just east of
the area on Saturday...but a weak piece of energy aloft will swing
down across northern and central Alabama during the day Saturday.
This will maintain some cloud cover on Saturday...but lower levels
will be fairly dry so we will not be putting any rainfall in the forecast
in association with this feature. By Sunday forecast area will be on the
western side of the surface ridge with Gulf return flow beginning but no
real dynamics aloft so dry weather will continue on Sunday. High
temperatures will continue to be in the 60s over the entire area on
Saturday...but moderating slightly to the upper 60s and lower 70s
on Sunday with the return flow. Low temperatures Saturday night generally in
the 40s. 12/ds
Long term (monday through thursday)...another weak surface front will
move into the southeastern states on Monday...stalling and gradually
dissipating for the remainder of the period as high pressure ridge
gradually rebuilds in from the east. With the weakening surface boundary
and occasional disturbances in the upper flow moving across the
region...an unsettled weather pattern is expected for most of the
long term period...with a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms each day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the 70s Monday through
Wednesday...approaching lower 80s some locations by Thursday.
Overnight lows ranging from middle 50s inland to lower 60s coastal each
Marine...strong northerly flow will develop in the wake of a cold
front this morning and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.
Northerly flow will gradually decrease this afternoon through
Saturday as high pressure builds into the area. A light southerly
flow develops early next week and continues through midweek. 13/jc
Aviation...27.12z issuance...IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue through
middle-morning in the wake of a cold front. VFR conditions will develop
by late morning and continue through the remainder of the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 67 41 66 47 68 / 10 00 00 10 10
Pensacola 67 45 65 47 66 / 10 00 00 10 10
Destin 67 47 63 50 63 / 10 00 05 10 05
Evergreen 63 37 62 40 70 / 10 00 00 05 05
Waynesboro 64 36 64 43 71 / 10 00 10 10 10
Camden 62 37 62 41 71 / 10 00 10 10 05
Crestview 66 38 65 41 67 / 10 00 00 10 05
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
Choctawhatchee Bay-coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola
Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula
MS out 20 nm-Mississippi Sound-northern Mobile Bay-
Pensacola Bay system-Perdido Bay-southern Mobile Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for waters
from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 nm.