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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
646 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Aviation [02.00z taf issuance]...thunderstorms and rain over the southern half of
Mississippi and back into Louisiana has resulted in cloud debris of
multiple height over the central Gulf Coast. Will carry this in the
short term. VFR conditions with bases mainly at middle to high levels.
Isolated evening rain showers will continue to dissipate heading into the
evening. Southeast wind 7 to 10 knots this evening...becomes less
than 5 knots overnight. /10


Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Short term (tonight and tuesday)...very little synoptic change
during next 24 hours. Essentially...the westward extension of the
Bermuda high that has been retrograding ever so slightly into our
area from the east cuts off into a closed high pressure cell over
western Florida Panhandle. The lower portion of the boundary layer
experiences a moisture increase overnight due to very subtle moisture
advection between aforementioned high pressure cell to our east and
trough of low pressure in Southern Plains. Rain chances increase slightly
tomorrow back into scattered category region wide (and 40-50% along northwest
Florida Panhandle sea-breeze). There will once again be a general
northward progression of scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
beginning first along the coast by noon and propagating inland with
time. Based on performance of last night's min temperatures with respect to
guidance...went a tad closer to cooler mav guidance. Maximum temperatures
tomorrow afternoon will range from the middle 90s deg(f) over the
interior to near 89 deg(f) along the beaches. /23 jmm

Long term (tuesday night through monday)...while middle level ridging
will persist across the southeast states through the week...deep
layer moisture will be abundant across the region with precipitable
water values hovering around 2 inches for middle to late week. In
addition...forecast soundings show little in the way of strong
subsidence in the middle levels with MLCAPES of 2000-3000 j/kg expected
each day. Therefore...expect diurnally driven scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the week...with the focus over the
coastal counties in the morning along the developing seabreeze with
coverage increasing in the afternoon further inland. Storms will
quickly diminish during the evening hours...but an isolated storm is
possible early in the morning along the immediate coast.

By the weekend...the middle level ridge axis will weaken slightly and
shift west toward Texas as abundant upper level energy moves across
the middle west into New England. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have
consistently shown a surface trough draped over our region through the
weekend that will serve as an additional focus for diurnal
convection. Scattered storms are expected to continue Sat/sun in the
presence of this trough...the slightly weaker upper ridging...and
persistent precipitable waters near 2 inches.

Highs in the low to middle 90s Wednesday/Thursday will cool a few degrees Friday
through the weekend. Lows will generally be in the low to middle 70s...a
little warmer along the immediate coast.

Guidance begins to diverge by next Monday on how fast the ridging
builds back into the area. Will not make any changes at this
time...maintaining a chance for scattered diurnal storms with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. 34/jfb

Marine...the 8 second swell is driving the bulk of the 3-4 feet sig
wave heights with mainly slow rollers (also supported by web cams
around the region). This should subside somewhat through next 24
hours as the pressure gradient formed by the surface high pressure to
our north and the low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico decreases.
Otherwise... region generally remains under the influence of the
westward extension of the Bermuda ridge through the entire period.
The persistent southeast winds of the last few days decrease in speed
on Wednesday...and are even east-northeast-NE for a brief period as the surface
high pressure cell closes off just to the north of the region. Winds
then return to an east-southeast-southeast direction between middle- and late-week. No
hazards. Winds and seas will be higher near isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the period. /23 jmm


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 75 92 74 93 74 / 10 30 20 40 20
Pensacola 76 90 76 93 76 / 10 30 20 40 20
Destin 78 90 80 91 78 / 10 20 20 30 20
Evergreen 71 94 72 95 71 / 10 40 20 40 20
Waynesboro 72 93 72 94 71 / 10 40 20 40 20
Camden 72 94 71 95 71 / 10 30 20 40 20
Crestview 70 95 72 95 70 / 10 50 20 40 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk until 7 am Tuesday for the following
zones: lower Baldwin...lower Mobile...

Florida...high rip current risk until 7 am Tuesday for the following
zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...coastal Santa



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