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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
518 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...VFR ceilings/visbys expected through the forecast. Cloud
deck associated with approaching re-enforcing will remain well above
VFR minimums.



Previous discussion... /issued 436 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016/

Near term /now through Saturday night/ upper system will pass
over the forecast area today into tonight...reinforcing the cool and dry
northerly flow over the region. With moisture levels very low
(precipitable water values only around 0.25 inches) rain is
expected. Temperatures continue to be the forecast problem of choice in the
first two periods of the forecast. Temperatures today are expected to be
again below seasonal with highs in the middle 50s. Tonight...with the
cooler air being reinforced...expect lows in the middle 20s to around
30 expected over most of the forecast area. 16/Sam

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...shortwave will be
exiting east of the region early Sunday while a second shortwave over
the upper plains/Midwest states will beginning carving out a deeper
longwave trough over the eastern portion of the country. The deep long
wave trough will then persist through Monday night with shortwave
energy rounding the base of the trough over our area. This energy will
push another surface front across the area early Monday...but a very dry
airmass (precipitable water no more than 0.35 inches) in place over
the region will keep rain chances non existent with the frontal passage. May
see a slight increase in middle/high level clouds...but that is it. Surface
winds briefly become west or even southwest just ahead of the
approaching front late Sunday and Sunday night...but otherwise a deep
northwesterly flow expected. Daytime highs in the middle to upper 50s on
Sunday...cooling slightly on Monday in the wake of the front with
highs in the low to middle 50s. Sunday night lows ranging from the middle
30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast. A little cooler Monday
night...with freezing temperatures again expected over most of the
interior (upper 20s to lower 30s) and in the middle 30s at the coast.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...the broad upper trough will
remain over the eastern third of the country through Wednesday night
although will be weakening...then continue to weaken and move off the
U.S. Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday. The deep northwesterly flow
will continue...brining yet another surface frontal passage to the forecast
area on Wednesday...again with no precipitation expected. A large
area of surface high pressure will build into the region on
Thursday...then shift east on Friday. Surface winds gradually becoming
more southeast late Thursday and Thursday night and then southwest by
Friday. Coolest day during the long term period will be on
Tuesday...with highs only in the middle to upper 40s most locations
(although maybe some lower 50s along immediate coastal areas). High
temperatures moderate somewhat middle to late week with the periods of
return flow previously mentioned. Highs Wednesday in the low to middle
50s...rising into the lower 60s Thursday....and then into the middle to
upper 60s Friday as Gulf return flow sets up more significantly. More
freezing temperatures over interior sections Tuesday night with
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s well inland to the middle 30s at
the coast. Same moderating trend with regard to overnight low
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday nights...with temperatures ranging from
the lower 30s north to lower 40s coastal Wednesday night and warming
into the middle to upper 40s interior and lower 50s coastal by Thursday
night. 12/ds

Marine....a passing upper system will push a front across area
coastal waters later today through tonight...with the offshore flow
becoming strong. Surface high pressure will quickly move over the
lower Mississippi River valley later Sunday into Sunday night...
easing the offshore flow. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the Gulf marine zones tonight and Sunday. Another front will move
over the marine area Monday...bringing strong northwesterly flow
which will last into middle week...mainly over unprotected waters.


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
for gmz650-655-670-675.



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