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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1155 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

Aviation...
06z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through early
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast in
the morning and develop inland through the late morning and
afternoon hours. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in and around
showers and thunderstorms. /13

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015/

Short term [tonight and tuesday]...a series of progressively
stronger shortwaves will move across the region while an upper trough
remains over the eastern states. A surface ridge remains over the
northern Gulf through the period with a light to moderate
southwesterly flow continuing. While precipitable water values are
near 1.2 inches for much of the area currently...deep layer moisture
is in the process of increasing mainly over southeast Mississippi and
extreme southwest Alabama where precipitable water values near 1.5
inches are present...and improving deep layer moisture continues
overnight across the area with precipitable water values reaching
near 1.8 inches for Tuesday. The remnants of an old cold front along
with low level isentropic lift is currently generating
isolated/scattered convection mainly in the better deep layer
moisture environment and expect isolated to scattered convection to
linger into the early evening hours. Additional mainly isolated
convective development is expected during the late night hours with
scattered storms expected across the area on Tuesday as the
progressively stronger shortwaves affect the area. Lows tonight will
be in the lower 70s except for middle 70s near the coast and highs on
Tuesday will be near 90. With these daytime highs and abundant deep
layer moisture...surface based convective available potential energy of 2500-3000 are expected for
Tuesday. Shear values will be generally low with 0-3 km helicities of
60-100 m2/s2 but expect that some storms will become strong and
produce strong gusty winds initiated by precipitation loading. Brief
locally heavy rains will accompany the stronger storms as well. /29

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is moderate near the coast...
otherwise low.

[Tuesday night]...remnant front and moisture spreading into the
region will allow for rain chances to remain the forecast through
the overnight hours...focused across coastal counties and out over
the coastal waters. Temperatures will fall into the low 70s
inland...hovering in the upper 70s along the coast. 07/mb

Long term [wednesday through sunday]...the amplified pattern across
the Continental U.S. Broadens out quite a bit by the end of the work week with
the upper level trough axis pivoting east by Wednesday. At the
surface...high pressure will continue to grip much of the Gulf and
southeast. Moisture will continue to spread across the area middle
week...keeping scattered showers and storms with 30 to 40 percent
probability of precipitation in the forecast. Much of this activity will be focused across
the southern portion of the area along the sea breeze.

This pattern is expected stick around through early next week.
However...probability of precipitation will be low...20 to 30 percent...as we head into the
Holiday weekend through early next week as the ridge continues to
builds in.

Temperature forecast will start to sound like a broken record by the
end of the week as there is not much day-to-day change. Highs in the
low 90s middle week with temperatures trending slightly warmer for the
Holiday weekend with middle 90s expected. Little change in overnight
temperatures with middle to low 70s inland and upper 70s along the
beaches and coastline. 07/mb

Marine...a surface ridge remains over the northern Gulf through the
period with a predominately moderate southwest wind becoming light
early in the period. Winds and seas will be higher near storms. /29

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 73 90 72 90 75 / 30 50 30 30 30
Pensacola 76 90 75 89 76 / 30 50 30 30 30
Destin 78 90 77 89 78 / 30 40 40 30 30
Evergreen 71 90 70 91 73 / 20 50 40 30 20
Waynesboro 72 90 70 91 72 / 20 50 30 40 20
Camden 72 89 69 91 72 / 20 50 40 30 20
Crestview 72 90 72 93 73 / 20 50 40 30 30

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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