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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
631 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Aviation...
31.12z taf issuance...VFR conditions forecast. Light north northwest
wind this morning becomes southwest 10 to 15 kts into the afternoon.
/10

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/

Discussion...

Short term [today and tonight]...weather maps this morning show
upper level low lifting northeast and dampening across the western
portions of the Carolinas. Middle level trough extends southwest into
southern Texas. An amplified middle level ridge was in place over the
southwest Atlantic. At the surface...an inverted trough (remnants of
erika) has slipped into the southeast Gulf. Deep moisture along the
trough axis was streaming northward across the Florida Peninsula and up
across the southeast US...between the deep layer ridge to the east
and the middle level trough to the west.

Deep layer ridge over the southwest Atlantic is forecast to extend
westward into the central Gulf in the near term. Deep layer moisture
over the eastern Gulf is forecast to continue streaming northward
into the southeast...the placement of which resides east of the local
area. The other area of deep moisture will be aligned west of the
area...from the western Gulf to up into the lower Mississippi River
valley. Although there could be a few popup
showers/storms...considering the orientation of the better moisture
to the east and west of the area and building heights
aloft...potential of showers and storms looks too minimal to include
in the forecast. Winds will mostly be light in the short
term...possibly picking up in the afternoon from the south along the
coast due to the presence of a weak coastal surface trough/sea breeze.
Today's highs range from 91 to 94. Overnight lows in the upper 60s
interior to middle 70s coast. /10

This afternoon's wet microburst risk is unlikely

[tuesday through Wednesday night]...an Upper Cutoff low over East
Texas will begin to very slowly move eastward...reaching the lower
Mississippi River valley by late Wednesday night...while a weak
shortwave over the Ohio River valley moves east over the western
Atlantic. An upper ridge extending westward from the large upper high
pressure system over the western Atlantic will persist through
Tuesday and then begin to break down on Wednesday as the upper low
approaches from the west. A weak surface ridge of high pressure will
persists across the southeast states. We should see a gradual
increase in precipitation through the remainder of the short term
with isolated showers and thunderstorms expected southeast of I-65
Tuesday afternoon...and isolated showers and thunderstorms expected
across the entire forecast area Wednesday afternoon.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be 3 to 6 degrees above
normal...with middle 90s inland areas and low 90s along the coast. Heat
indices will reach around 100 degrees. Low temperatures both nights
will be in the lower 70s inland areas...with middle 70s along the
immediate coastal sections. /22

Long term [thursday through sunday]...the upper ridge across the
region will break down completely as the upper low over the lower
Mississippi River valley moves very slowly eastward across the
southeast states through the remainder of the week. However...the
weak surface ridge of high pressure will persists across the
southeast states. We will continue to see typical diurnal isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. High
temperatures will reach the lower 90s inland area through the
reminder of the week... with upper 80s along the immediate coastal
sections. Heat indices will reach around 100 degrees each afternoon.
/22

Marine...overall a weak pressure pattern remains in place this
week...resulting in light wind flow. Only exception looks to be in
the afternoons...as winds become more onshore and increase a bit due
to the presence of a weak surface pressure trough/coastal seabreeze.
Winds turn offshore by daybreak each morning. Seas change little.
Remnants of what was Erika...look to remain an open trough while it
lifts generally northward across the eastern Gulf over the next
couple of days. /10

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 93 71 93 72 92 / 05 05 10 05 20
Pensacola 93 74 92 75 90 / 05 05 20 20 20
Destin 92 77 90 76 90 / 05 05 20 20 20
Evergreen 92 69 94 70 94 / 05 05 10 05 20
Waynesboro 93 69 94 70 93 / 05 05 10 05 20
Camden 91 69 94 71 94 / 05 05 10 05 20
Crestview 94 68 94 71 92 / 05 05 20 05 20

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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