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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
436 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Short term (today and tonight)...high amplitude middle to upper
ridge axis located near the la/Texas border this morning will continue
to shift east reaching central MS and lower la by 12z Thursday. At the
surface high pressure centered mostly over the upper and middle MS
river valleys will shift east and south settling over the Tennessee River
valley and central Gulf states by 12z Thursday. To the south dew point 9 located
over the Bay of Campeche will shift east to the Yucatan Peninsula by
12z Thursday leading to a better pressure/thermal gradient generally over the
north central Gulf Coast states and northern Gulf by 12z Thursday...thus
allowing for better mixing in the boundary layer for much of the
County warning forecast area for the next 24 hours. This pattern will continue to moderate
surface temperatures somewhat through tonight also...though with plenty of
sunshine still on tap for today and clear skies tonight. As for
temperatures will use a blend of the mav and met guidance through tonight
resulting in afternoon highs reaching the middle to upper 70s for most
of the northern half of the County warning forecast area and the upper 70s to lower 80s
further south to the coast. Lows tonight will be a tad cooler than
previous nights with lows ranging from the lower to middle 40s for
most inland areas generally north of the I-10 corridor and the upper
40s to lower 50s closer to the coast. 32/ee

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...this may start to sound like
a broken record...but dry and quiet weather will persist from the end
of this week through early next week. Near normal highs with below
normal lows are expected Thursday-Friday as a broad area of high pressure
remains anchored from the Midwest south to the southeast states and
lower MS valley. Temperatures will moderate this weekend as middle to
upper level ridging over the central states builds east. Weekend
highs will be slightly above normal...but lows will still average
near normal due to a very dry atmosphere and good radiational
cooling conditions.

The middle to upper level ridge...along with surface ridging...will move
well east of the area by Monday-Tuesday of next week...resulting in the
development of a southerly surface flow. Humidity values will climb in
response with temperatures climbing to above normal levels. Despite
the increasing low level moisture...the middle to upper levels of the
atmosphere will likely remain very dry and this will keep rain
chances out of the forecast through Tuesday. 34/jfb


12z issuance
VFR conditions through 23.12z. Skies will continue to be clear.
Winds will continue from the north and northeast at 4 to 8 knots
through 32.12z. 32/ee


Marine...deep high pressure to the west and north combined with dew point
9 over the Bay of Campeche shifting east over the lower Gulf will
help maintain a moderate to strong northeast to easterly flow over
the marine area through Thursday...followed by a deepening long wave trough
approaching from the west which should help lift dew point 9 to the
northeast possibly over the Florida Peninsula by the weekend or early
next week. As for dew point 9 both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in fair agreement
through Friday with the GFS becoming more robust with the strength and
track of the system as it eventually emerges into the southeast Gulf and Florida
Straits. As mentioned earlier...with this pattern we could see
exercise caution or small craft conditions later this week and
possibly into the weekend which mostly depends on the intensity and
location of dew point 9 by late in the week. Better swell mostly from the
south will also be likely late in the week and over the weekend as
this system to the south shifts east. 32/ee


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 80 48 75 47 77 / 00 00 00 00 00
Pensacola 79 52 75 51 77 / 00 00 00 00 00
Destin 75 55 74 57 75 / 00 00 00 00 00
Evergreen 77 41 73 42 76 / 00 00 00 00 00
Waynesboro 78 42 74 42 77 / 00 00 00 00 00
Camden 76 41 73 42 76 / 00 00 00 00 00
Crestview 81 41 76 42 77 / 00 00 00 00 00


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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