Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
235 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
..significant beach erosion possible through the Holiday weekend...
..Hazardous boating/surf conditions continuing too...
the strong high pressure ridge along the eastern Seaboard will
slowly weaken with southern portion getting pinched off as
frontal trough moves towards the northeastern Continental U.S.. this will
cause the local pressure gradient to slowly ease. Still...low
level onshore winds will support gusty conditions...probably about
5 miles per hour less than today. Satellite shows plenty of Atlantic cloud
lines so we will continue to hold onto low probability of precipitation (20-30 percent).
Little change in the mild temperature regime.
Sat-Thursday (modified previous discussion)...a cut-off middle level low
will drop S/SW from the central Bahamas across Cuba on the weekend.
The 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) models only show a broad trough reflected
at the surface. This trough should increase moisture and cause shower
chances to increase from the east by Sunday evening and continue
into Monday. Windy conditions indicated through at least Sat night
along the coast. Onshore flow is forecast to weaken noticeably by
Tuesday after the surface trough moves to the west. High temperatures
will average a few degrees above normal in the u70s/l80s with
quite mild low temperatures in the 60s and even lower 70s along the
immediate coast. With no significant cooling in the forecast...it
appears that this November and even this meteorological fall (sep-
Oct-nov) will be one of the warmest on record.
The long duration of this onshore wind event will continue
dangerous high surf through the weekend. Beach erosion may become
significant after several high tide cycles. Minor coastal flooding
along the Atlantic and intracoastal shores is also possible.
gusty easterly winds will decrease around sunset over the interior
terminals...but should stay gusty a little over 20 knots along the
coast until about midnight. Occasional ceilings at or above fl035
will occur and brief MVFR visibility is possible...in/near quick
moving showers...especially at coastal sites. Northeast winds on
Friday look a tad less gusty than today...but still quite breezy.
tonight-Fri...latest guidance shows winds slowly diminishing after
midnight as high pressure ridge to the north starts to weaken.
Still...winds will be around 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
possible...especially in/near widely scattered showers. Fully
arisen seas will change little so Small Craft Advisory conditions
will be easily maintained.
Sat-Mon...the pressure gradient will remain tight out of the NE with
hazardous marine conditions continuing through the Holiday weekend.
Seas will be up to around 12 feet offshore...7 to 10 feet nearshore.
While winds may surge some again this weekend as a low pressure
trough approaches...the gradient is forecast to slacken early next
week. Seas will still be slow to subside though.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 67 78 64 77 / 20 20 30 20
mco 64 81 62 80 / 20 20 10 20
mlb 70 79 66 79 / 30 20 20 20
vrb 69 79 63 80 / 30 20 20 20
Lee 63 80 61 78 / 10 20 10 20
sfb 64 80 63 78 / 20 20 10 20
orl 65 79 64 79 / 20 20 10 20
fpr 68 79 64 80 / 30 20 20 20
Florida...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for coastal
Volusia County-Indian River-inland Volusia County-Martin-
northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-
Orange-Osceola-Seminole-southern Brevard County-Southern
Lake County-St. Lucie.
High surf advisory until 1 am EST Saturday for coastal Volusia
County-Indian River-Martin-northern Brevard County-southern
Brevard County-St. Lucie.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 am EST Saturday for coastal
Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-northern Brevard County-
southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.