Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
350 PM EDT Monday Aug 3 2015
Current-tonight...the debris clouds won out big time today...
inhibiting surface heating a few degrees more than forecast was adjusted
for...and pretty much squashing diurnal convection except for
isolated to locally scattered light-MDT showers. Could see a little
regeneration through sunset...especially across the north in vicinity of weak
residual enhanced low level cyclonic convg...but activity won't be
too intense. A spotty late evening shower or two will be possible
over the northern County Warning Area...but don't expect significant coverage/intensity.
Lingering debris clouds will thin some...with mins in the l-m70s.
Tuesday...surface low currently near the Georgia coast lifts northeast/weakens as
it slides along or merges with frontal boundary farther north along
the eastern U.S. Coast. Band of deeper moisture south of the low
will exist across areas from Orlando northward Tuesday. This should
lead to earlier development and greater coverage of showers and
storms across this region from late morning into the after. Rain chance
50 percent over the far north and 40 percent elsewhere.
Wednesday...surface ridge axis lifts north to near lake as weak low moves well
away from the area. Overall moisture decreases slightly with a more
normal Summer time setup of scattered showers and storms developing
in the after along the east/West Coast sea breezes. Flow not as backed
as previous advertised and as such went with uniform 40 probability of precipitation all areas.
Highs generally in the low 90s Tuesday with middle 90s possible over the
interior Wednesday. Lows will continue to range in the low to middle 70s.
Thu-sun...a short wave trough moves from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley toward the middle-
Atlantic late week driving a weak surface frontal boundary farther south
into the southeast U.S. Through the weekend. This shifts the low
level ridge axis back southward with a predominant west/SW flow again
expected over the area. While offshore flow currently looks weak
enough for East Coast sea breeze to form it will likely be delayed
each after. Moisture remains sufficient for scattered after showers and
storms moving eastward with a few stronger storms possible toward
the coast along any boundary collisions. Probability of precipitation around 30-50 percent
each day with highs generally in the lower 90s.
Aviation...spotty showers...mainly north of kism-ktix....could produce
occasional MVFR visibilities from late afternoon into the evening hours.
Marine...tonight through Wednesday...low pressure toward the Georgia
coast Tuesday morning will lift farther northward while ridge axis
builds northward to near lake Okee by Wednesday. Winds out of the SW will become
S-south-southwest with onshore breeze along the immediate coast in afternoon sea
breeze circ. Speeds expected to remain at or below 15 knots. Seas 2-4ft...
subsiding to 1-3ft
Thu-Sat...ridge axis shifts back south of the region into late week
with winds predominantly out of the SW around 5-10 knots. Seas
continue around 1-3 feet...possibly up to 4 feet well offshore.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 73 90 73 90 / 30 50 20 40
mco 73 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 40
mlb 73 91 74 89 / 20 40 20 40
vrb 71 91 73 90 / 20 40 20 40
Lee 74 89 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
sfb 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
orl 74 91 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
fpr 72 91 73 89 / 20 40 20 40