Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1025 am EDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014
Cold front parked over the Florida Straits this morning with a brisk nearly
Post frontal surge generating respectable cold air advection. Morning
min temperatures managed to drop into the M/u40s north of I-4 with kdab
reporting 48f...klee at 47f. Morning radiosonde observations...USAF 915hz profiler...
and the kjax/kmlb VAD wind profilers all showing 25-30kt winds between
the surface and 3kft. Tight Post frontal surface pgrad in place as well with
kjax-kmfl around 6mb...kdab-kpbi around 4mb. Geostrophic approx tables
show this will support 20-25kt surface winds. At this time...only the coastal
sites are gusting in the 20-25mph range...but should pick up over
the interior by midday...especially north of kism-ktix where the frontal
stratus band has cleared. Will expand the lake Wind Advisory to
include all counties.
A strong Post frontal subsidence inversion has trapped a fair amount
of moisture below h90. Frontal stratus deck will remain largely intact
S of kism-ktix. Middle morning temperatures ranging from the M/u50s along and north
of I-4...l/m60s to the S. Given combination of cloud cover and cool
air advection in place...afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach their
advertised levels...will knock a few degree off the maximum temperatures.
north of kism-ktix: through 18z...surface winds becoming north/NE with g20-25kts continuing
through 00z. Prevailing VFR through 00z with occasional ceilings between fl040-060.
Between 00z-04z...MVFR ceilings between fl020-030...after 04z MVFR ceilings between
fl010-020 with brief periods below fl010...chance MVFR visibilities in -shras.
S of kism-ktix: through 04z...N/NE surface wind g20-25kts...prevailing MVFR
ceilings between fl020-030 with occasional breaks in overcast...slight chance MVFR visibilities in -shra.
After 04z...prevailing MVFR ceilings between fl010-020...chance MVFR visibilities in
hazardous boating conditions with local data/buoy-C-man stations
measuring sustained winds between 15-25kts...nearshore seas 5-6ft with
dominant periods around 6sec...offshore seas between 6-7ft with dominant periods
around 7sec. Seas expected to build to 5-7ft nearshore and 8-9ft
offshore as nearly surface/boundary layer winds veer to the NE...local pgrad will
support a fresh to strong breeze. Very steep waves as the opposing
nearly wind field/srly Gulf Stream will keep dominant periods at or below 7sec. No
changes to the current Small Craft Advisory.
Florida...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Volusia-Indian River-inland Volusia-Martin-northern Brevard-
Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Friday for coastal waters
from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Volusia Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet out 20 nm-waters from Flagler Beach to
Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters
from Volusia Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20 to
60 nm offshore.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for coastal waters
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20 nm-waters from
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore.
long term/impact weather...blottman