Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
857 PM EDT Monday Jun 29 2015
Current-tonight...convection winding down across the area this
evening. Cloud debris will slowly thin through the overnight. Min
temperatures in the l/M 70s with light winds. Will make cosmetic
changes to ongoing forecast and update zones shortly to clean up
first period wording.
Tuesday...previous discussion...middle level trough persists across the
eastern U.S. Through middle week with axis of the Atlantic ridge remaining
south of the forecast area. This will keep a deep layer westerly
flow across central Florida through the period. Ample moisture and robust
wind profile aloft may again bring early showers and embedded
thunder across the I-4 corridor early Tuesday with activity spreading
eastward into the afternoon to the East Coast. Low level offshore flow
may weaken enough for the sea breeze to develop south of the
cape...but it will likely be delayed. Any boundary or storm
interactions later in the after with the sea breeze may enhance
convection with a few stronger storms possible.
Aviation...convective activity on a downward trend this evening
with gradual thinning skies. Interesting that the wrfarw2 suggests a
line of convection from middle morning-early afternoon Tuesday traversing the
east central Florida Peninsula. Not sure I believe the coverage it
suggests but it could be another early convective start to the day.
Pressure gradient overall weaker on Tuesday with the ecsb forecast to
develop at least from the cape southward in the afternoon. Tempo IFR/MVFR
conds will again be possible with activity on Tuesday.
Marine...overnight-Tue...low-level ridge axis remains south and
east of the area. Mainly SW/west-southwest winds forecast 10-15 kts overnight
with seas 2-3 feet. Wind speeds falling to mainly 5-10 kts on Tuesday. The
East Coast sea breeze is forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon at least from
the cape southward. Offshore moving showers/storms possible from
late morning into the afternoon.