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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
959 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Update...

..above normal rain chances continue today...
..Erika forecast to approach Florida late this weekend...

A weakening surface trough near the area has led to the collapse
of winds through about 700 mb with generally west to southwest
flow above that. The western extension of the Atlantic surface
ridge is gradually building northward and should transition low
level flow to out of the south (outside of the sea breeze
circulation) by this afternoon. 12z xmr sounding indicates precipitable waters
of about 1.9" and 500mb temperatures around -7c (tampa sounding -8c at
500mb) which is fairly typical for late August.

Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms with a focus
towards the interior later this afternoon. Expect the Atlantic
sea breeze to move inland this afternoon and act as a focus for
convective development. Given the middle/upper level flow out of the
southwest...expect anvil debris/rain to push back towards coast
after storms get going.

Limited middle/upper level cloud cover this morning will allow temperatures
to climb into the low 90s by early this afternoon.

&&

Aviation...
another round of thunderstorms and rain/rain showers over central Florida this afternoon
with focus on 18-22z timeframe for short duration MVFR/IFR
conditions. Light surface winds will gradually transition onshore
as Atlantic sea breeze develops and moves inland.

&&

Marine...
light winds this morning transition to the east/southeast this afternoon
and remain below 10 knots. Less of a threat for offshore moving
storms this after but isolated-scattered showers and storms will still develop
over the waters this after. Seas will range from 2-3 feet today and
up to 3-4 feet from a building swell into tonight.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 88 75 89 77 / 50 20 50 30
mco 92 74 91 75 / 60 20 50 30
mlb 89 76 90 79 / 50 20 30 30
vrb 90 75 90 77 / 60 20 30 40
Lee 92 75 91 76 / 60 30 60 30
sfb 92 75 91 76 / 60 20 50 30
orl 92 76 91 76 / 60 20 50 30
fpr 90 75 90 78 / 60 20 30 40

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Forecasts...Ulrich
radar/aviation/impact weather...lascody

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