Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
211 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015
his afternoon-tonight...the steering winds between 850mb and 500mb
(approx 5000-18000 ft) will push any late afternoon/evening storms
Orlando north back toward the coast. Cooler temperatures aloft
around -9c at 500mb and increasing vorticity advection at the same
level may produce strong storms...especially those having resulted
from any of the various boundary/sea breeze collisions...from
Lake...Orange...North Brevard and north through the evening. Storms
trend down after sunset with lingering light rain from debris clouds
Mon-Wed...GFS/ecm models remain consistent with their solutions of
keeping the surface ridge from central Florida south through
Wednesday then a slow northward progression after middle week.
Continued deep layer southerly component to the winds as well as
deep layered moisture should keep afternoon/evening rain chances 30
percent or better. Models(s) also indicating the steering winds
shift from the southwest early on to the east by Wednesday.
Significance will be storms shifting away from the East Coast to
the interior as the easterly flow deepens.
Thu-sun...the TUTT over the Florida Straits deforms as its remains dampen
out westward into the southern Gomex. Middle level ridge north of Florida remains in
control into next weekend...but by Sunday some differences begin to
show up in how the models handle northern stream energy over the eastern
Continental U.S./Western Atlantic. The GFS shows greater trough amplification farther
east over the western Atlantic with a stronger middle level level ridge over
the southern/southeastern Continental U.S. And the middle/upper level flow becoming nearly over
Florida and the adjct Atlantic. The ecm shows broader but less amplified
troughing across the eastern Continental U.S./Western Atlantic with lower h50 heights and
weaker middle/upper flow as a broad col develops ovhd by sun.
The GFS "back doors" a slug of deep moisture southward this weekend. The
ecm does show some moistening taking place...but not nearly to the
same extent. Teh current forecast continues to show diurnal convective
probs a bit below normal for Thu-Fri...slowly rising by next Sat
owing to at least some anticipated increase in mean moisture. Temperatures
look to remain near climatology.
Southeast around 10 knots outside of thunderstorms/rain showers until 06/03z becmg 06/03z-06/06z
5 to 10 knots vcsh interior...06/06z-06/18z VFR local MVFR br
tonight...surface/low level ridge axis bisecting the peninsula will
maintain a light to gentle southeast to southerly breeze over the
local Atlantic waters overnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet nearshore and
2 to 3 feet well offshore.
Mon-Thu...close proximity of surface ridge axis will keep the maor in a
favorable regime for boating with a gentle to moderate S to southeast wind
flow. Seas will remain in the 2-3ft range with the local sea breeze
circ near the coast causing winds to modestly increase and back more
onshore each afternoon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 74 91 74 90 / 30 30 30 30
mco 74 94 75 93 / 30 50 20 30
mlb 75 89 75 89 / 20 40 20 20
vrb 75 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 20
Lee 76 94 76 93 / 30 30 20 40
sfb 75 94 75 92 / 30 40 20 30
orl 75 94 76 92 / 30 50 20 30
fpr 73 90 73 89 / 20 30 20 20