Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
815 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
Current-overnight...another warm night with lows in the middle and
upper 70s on land and the upper 70s at the beaches from Cocoa Beach
south. It will be muggy with dew points in the low to middle 70s and
light to calm winds toward sunrise Thursday.
Thursday looking to another warm/hot day with highs in the middle 90s
and some upper 90s in the usually hotter locations. Sea breezes in
the afternoon slow down the temperature increase at the coast with
their highs in the low 90s. Dewpoint temperatures in the low and middle
70s will push the apparent temperatures/heat indices to the 105 to
107 degree range Thursday and Friday.
Forecast for overnight is good. Dew points for Thursday late morning
through late afternoon looked a degree or two high when compared to
previous days. The evening update issued for Thursday nudged dew
points down one to two degrees to make them more in line with the
latest lamp guidance.
Previous zones discussions
this afternoon-tonight...with prevailing flow a little more
northwesterly than west-southwest the East Coast sea breeze has been
able to develop and push inland a little more quickly than previous
days...currently into about I-95 from the cape southwards. As
expected...the main focus for any development so far today has been
just inland across the Treasure Coast where the East Coast sea
breeze is interacting with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. So far just a
few showers have popped up along the sea breeze...but isolated
storms will be possible as it moves inland to the lake into the
afternoon. Steering flow is nearly non-existent is this area...and
most activity will tend to move with the sea breeze and drift
southeast through late afternoon.
Further north...far more isolated activity developing along the West
Coast sea breeze moving into Lake County currently. A storm or two
will be possible across the interior through the afternoon along the
sea breezes. Most activity will diminish around sunset...though a
few storms may creep into North Lake/Volusia around sunset as the
steering flow turns more northwest.
Skies becoming mostly clear overnight with lows in the middle-upper
Thu-Sat...below normal rain chances continue into the weekend as
upper level ridge slides west and becomes centered over the central
to eastern Gulf as another trough digs off the East Coast. Models
showing a very weak moisture ribbon sliding into the state Thursday and
Friday as the tail end of the shortwave axis moves into the state. Have
kept probability of precipitation to 20 percent coast/30 percent interior for all three days
with coverage favoring the interior and west peninsula as steering
flow becomes more north-northeast and the East Coast sea breeze is
above to move further inland. Onshore flow appears too light for
night time coastal showers as well. Temperatures will remain quite warm with
middle 90s each afternoon except for the beaches and middle to upper 70s
Next week...upper ridging across the central to northern Gulf is forecast to
amplify northward over the Tennessee/Ohio valleys early next week. A subtle increase
in onshore flow is indicated with possibly stronger manifestation of
an onshore flow should hght falls across Caribbean region occur with
development of invest area 96. Current model runs suggest that there
will be an increase in probability of precipitation towards middle week as the movement of this
feature brings tropical moisture into the state. Will go with scattered
rain chances closer in line to climatology.
Current-overnight...VFR with the middle and high cloudiness associated
with isolated storms southern areas dissipating by midnight and
skies becoming mostly clear.
Previous aviation discussion
prevailing VFR conds. Dry airmass keeps convection very isolated
this afternoon. A few thunderstorms and rain vicinity kvrb-ksua and klee and kdab through
23z. Rain chances remain low into Thursday with widely scattered activity
mainly affecting inland taf sites after 19z with further inland
penetration of the East Coast sea breeze.
Current-overnight...nearshore buoys and cman sites recording
easterly winds around 10 knots and 1 foot seas. Buoy 010 at 120nm
offshore was recording westerly winds around 5 knots and 2 foot seas.
Sea breezes stop during the evening and the winds shift back to the
west late evening and overnight. Storms over the Gulf Stream.
Previous marine discussion
tonight-Thursday...generally light and variable flow this afternoon
with east-southeast winds 10kts near the coast due to the East Coast sea
breeze. Flow becoming S-SW 10-15kts overnight with sea breeze
development shifting winds onshore again Thursday afternoon. Seas 1-2
feet with up to 3 feet well offshore.
Fri-sun...favorable boating conditions should continue through the
weekend with S-SW winds 10kts in the nights and morning...turning
onshore near the coast in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas
around 2 feet with up to 3 feet offshore at times. Sea breezes will
lead to some wind chop near the coast in the afternoons.
Rain chances remain below normal into Sat with steering flow
favoring the interior peninsula rather than offshore moving storms.
forecast highs still just out of reach of records by 2-4 degrees
through the work week.
8/20 8/21 8/22
Daytona Beach 97 (1938) 96 (1941) 97 (1980)
Orlando 100 (1921) 99 (1925) 100 (1980)
Melbourne 96 (1993) 96 (2012) 96 (1993)
Vero Beach 95 (2005) 97 (1993) 95 (1993)
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 75 95 75 95 / 20 10 10 20
mco 76 97 76 96 / 10 20 10 30
mlb 76 93 76 93 / 10 10 10 20
vrb 74 93 75 91 / 10 10 10 20
Lee 77 97 78 97 / 10 30 20 30
sfb 77 98 78 97 / 10 20 10 30
orl 78 98 79 96 / 10 20 10 30
fpr 75 92 74 91 / 10 10 10 20