Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
240 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
tonight and Sunday...a nice afternoon provided by high pressure
edging closer to the area. Gradient winds will decrease to near
calm with darkness and another cool evening can be expected with
clear skies and lows falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Some light ground fog should be present in patches early Sunday
however no significant visibility reductions are expected.
Sunday...an excellent day ahead with plenty of sun and light
breezes. Temperatures will push 80 inland by middle afternoon. A
coastal breeze will keep temperatures in the 70s at the beaches. Not much
more to say.
Sun night-Tue...quiet and dry weather continues into the early part
of the week as surface high extending from the Gulf of Mexico across
the Florida Peninsula shifts south and east into the Atlantic by
Tuesday. Potent shortwave will be swinging across the northern Gulf
with an associated weak surface low by Tuesday...but any impacts from
this feature look to hold off through the daylight hours on Tuesday.
Skies will be partly cloudy with highs ranging from near 80s across
the north and middle 80s around Lake Okeechobee/Treasure Coast.
Overnight lows in the middle-upper 50s...with a few low 50s in colder
Tuesday night-Fri...from previous discussion...shortwave along the northern
Gulf Coast will cross Florida midweek ahead of a front associated
with deepening low pressure over the southern Ohio Valley. This low
pressure is expected to shift eastward toward the middle Atlantic coast
and offshore into the Atlantic through late week with cold front
crossing the region. While both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree on this
general pattern there still remains differences between the two on
timing/placement of these features and therefore this leaves some
uncertainty in the forecast from middle to late week. Therefore only
made slight adjustments to the forecast through this time frame with
rain chances increasing from 20/30 percent Tuesday night to around
40 percent Wednesday as shortwave energy crosses the area. May see a
few additional showers develop along cold front as it moves through
Wednesday night but then drier conditions generally expected behind
the frontal passage. Latest European model (ecmwf) is not showing as much of a cool
down as previous runs and is now more in line with the GFS into late
week with highs only expected to drop back into the 70s both
Thursday and Friday.
VFR conds with no obstructions to ceiling or visibility aside from some scattered
br and mifg from 09/09z-13z...leading to local visibilities 3-6sm.
Marine...will keep a Gulf Stream caution headline with next
issuance for lingering sea/swell and sig WV component near 6 feet
due to countering winds. Swell component makes a large portion of
WV hghts with a nearly 12 second period measured at marine platforms
at this time.
Sunday...decaying swell along with lightening of winds will keep
seas 4 feet or less within 30nm of the coast with swell making up
majority WV component. Open waters will see some 4-5 feet seas early
sun with a decreasing trend expected.
Mon-Wed...high pressure ridge across the region will shift eastward
into the Atlantic into early next week. Light west-southwest winds
10kts or less on Monday and Tuesday with ridge axis expected to be to the
south of the region. Will see East Coast sea breeze developing both
afternoons with winds becoming east-southeast along the coast.
Winds increase to 10-15kts out of the south-southwest Tuesday night and
Wednesday ahead of a system moving across the Gulf and through the
state...and could see 15-20kts over the north by late Wednesday. Seas
2-3ft...with up to 4ft well offshore early Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 48 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
mco 51 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
mlb 52 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
vrb 50 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
Lee 50 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 10
sfb 50 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
orl 53 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
fpr 51 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0