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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE 
PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD TO BERMUDA...WHILE LATEST WV IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF DRY MID LVL AIR OVER THE S HALF OF THE 
PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AS KXMR/KTBW/MFL ALL SHOW 
A DEEP E/NE FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 1.7"...KJAX DISPLAYING WRLY 
LOW LVL FLOW WITH PWAT ARND 2.0". RADAR PICKING UP ISOLD SHRAS 
FORMING IN THE WAKE EDDIES OF THE NRN BAHAMAS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE RECENT WX PATTERN AS A LOW AMP TROF PUSHES ACRS 
THE MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE IN PLACE. DEEP ERLY 
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BEFORE MIDDAY AND 
PUSH WELL INLAND. SOME COOLING HAS OCCURRED ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS 
DOWN TO ARND -7C...HOWEVER H70 TEMPS ARND 10C WILL DELAY THE 
FORMATION OF TSRAS UNTIL LATE AFTN. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE MOST 
LIKELY WILL BE ALONG OR W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.

ONE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE IS A 40-50KT H25 JET STEAK CLIPPING THE SE 
PENINSULA THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THUS ENHANCING 
STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR 
ALOFT AND H70-H50 LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 6.0-6.5C/KM...EXPECT A 
FEW TSRAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.

MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W. NO 
SIG CHANGES.   

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 02/18Z...BRIEF ISOLD MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB. BTWN 
02/18Z-02/24Z...S OF KTIX-KISM SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...N OF 
KTIX-KISM ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS. AFT 03/00Z...VFR ALL SITES. 

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING OUT TO 
BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL 
ATLC WATERS. SEAS AOB 2FT IN AN ERLY BACKGROUND SWELL...DOMINANT PDS 
8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET DUE TO CONVERGENCE CLOUD 
BANDS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN BAHAMAS. COOLING ALOFT ALLOW A 
FEW TSRAS TO FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AFT SUNSET. 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......CRISTALDI

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