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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING...AREA WEATHER RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EITHER COLLIDING WITH EACH OTHER OR THE EAST 
COAST SEA BREEZE OR LAKE BREEZES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL TRIGGER 
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A DECLINE IN COVERAGE WITH SUNSET DUE TO 
THE AIR MASS STABILIZING FROM ALL THE COOLER OUTFLOW WINDS MOVING 
AROUND THE INTERIOR. THE STEERING WINDFLOW STILL HAS A SOUTHWEST 
COMPONENT TO IT SO WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE 
COAST AND BECOME LIGHT RAIN FROM THE MID CLOUD DECK FROM CAPE 
CANAVERAL AND TITUSVILLE NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET. 
LOWS WED MORNING MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S.

WED...THE MID LEVEL/500MB RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES 
LITTLE AND REMAINS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR ANOTHER DAY. LIGHT WINDS 
IN THE MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZES FORM AND PUSH 
INLAND STARTING AT THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AROUND NOON THEN THE REST OF 
THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS OR 
STORMS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL AREA SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY 
INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZES. THE PRECIPITATION ON NEARSHORE WATERS 
AND COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD END AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND AND 
ARE REPLACED BY A MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS.

HIGHS AT THE COAST UPPER 80S AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWS DOWN/STOP 
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW 90S FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WEST 
DUE TO THE EXTRA HEATING TIME BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH 
AND SLOWS DOWN THE HEATING RATE.
 
WED NGT-THU...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE DEEP 
SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGING 
WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
FORECAST DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR THIS TIME WITH 
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. STEERING FLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING 
STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST EACH DAY. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 40 
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT VALUES ALONG 
THE COAST FOR WED. LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE 
FORECAST ON THU WITH 20 PERCENT OR LESS NEAR THE COAST AND 20 TO 30 
PERCENT INTO THE INTERIOR. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP 
LATE EACH MORNING AND MARCH WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

FRI-MON...THE MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH 
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP INITIALLY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING LATE 
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MIGRATES 
WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SETTLE SLOWLY BACK SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PENINSULA. CURRENTLY...DRIER AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HANG 
ON ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES 
RETURN AGAIN BY SUN/MON...ACCORDING TO THE GFS. BELOW AVERAGE 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST FRI/SAT...BUT RETURN BACK TOWARD NORMAL 
SUN/MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH THE DAILY EAST/WEST 
SEA BREEZE REGIMES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN AND NEAR TS ACTIVITY 
THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND 
GUSTY... WINDS REDUCING VSBY AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WILL 
UPDATE AS TS CLUSTERS DEVELOP. BRIEF TS POSSIBLE AT INLAND TERMINALS 
THROUGH 00Z. 



&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. 
BOATERS STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR SLOW MOVING
STORMS APPROACHING INLAND LAKES/RIVER/INDIAN RIVER AND MOSQUITO
LAGOONS AND THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING.

WED-FRI...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH FL
PENINSULA WED/THU BEFORE DROPPING BACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA FRI/SAT/SUN. ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST
WITH DEEP ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND ADVANCE INLAND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN
SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

SAT-SUN...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DROPS INTO FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  90 /  20  40  20  20 
MCO  73  92  74  93 /  20  40  30  30 
MLB  75  88  76  89 /  20  40  20  20 
VRB  73  88  73  90 /  20  30  20  30 
LEE  76  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  30 
SFB  74  92  74  93 /  20  40  30  30 
ORL  75  92  75  92 /  20  50  30  30 
FPR  73  88  74  90 /  20  30  20  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX....JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...WEITLICH
FORECASTS.....WIMMER

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