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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...

...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM E CENTRAL FL FOR MID WEEK WILL PRODUCE 
HAZARDOUS SEAS...ROUGH SURF AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE 
WILL EXTEND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY 
WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS...PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INTO 
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW 
IS SQUEEZING OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS...GENERATING ISOLATED 
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER THE WATERS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...PUSHING WESTWARD WITH 
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. 
HOWEVER ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AMOUNTING TO NO MORE THAN A FEW 
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. 

INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED BREEZY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM 
OR TWO ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATER TONIGHT. IF ANY PERSISTENT 
SHOWER BANDS DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES. POPS IN THIS REGION RANGE 
FROM 30-50 PERCENT. 

NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MORE MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT 
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD WHERE 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. 

TUE...MID-UPPER LYR LOW ACROSS THE SE GULF WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY TUE NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. LOW 
LVL ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND 
DEVELOPING SFC LOW WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE 
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT BREEZY 
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS SRN SECTIONS 
AND A CHANCE ACROSS THE NRN AREAS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING 
STORMS ALL AREAS. HIGHS AROUND 80 COAST AND LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE 
INTERIOR.

TUE NIGHT...00Z NAM QUICKER LIFTING SFC LOW NWD ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE 
WATERS WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND NWD MOTION FROM THE 00Z GFS BUT 
ALSO CLOSEST TO COAST AT 12Z ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE FROM VERO 
BEACH. HAVE LEANED A FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH 00Z ECMWF STILL 
INDICATING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE 
00Z GFS AND NAM. NE LOW LVL WINDS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOE SHOWERS 
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR 
WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS LAKE COUNTY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A 
CHANCE FOR SOME BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. 
 
WED...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD WELL OFFSHORE NORTH 
OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH 
ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTER. BREEZY 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY 
COASTAL AREAS. SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR MID 
WEEK WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR BEACH EROSION AT THE BEACHES NEAR 
HIGH TIDE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S COAST TO MID 80S INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS LIFT THE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA 
BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NW AND A DRY SLOT 
STARTING TO WORKING INTO NRN SECTIONS. KEPT A LOW SHOWER CHANCE 
ACROSS N CSTL AREAS AND SRN SECTIONS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND 
SPEED OF THE LOW. 

THU-MON...THE MID LVL CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF 
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER NW MID LVL FLOW AND LOWERING 
MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO POPS IN THE 10-20 PCT RANGE AND 
OVERALL DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A N/NE SWELL IS EXPECTED THU WITH AN ELEVATED 
RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUING FOR THU. DECREASING SWELLS/WINDS FOR THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LOWER THE RIP CURRENT RISK BY SAT AND SUNDAY.
 
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WITH HIGHER 
GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHRAS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE 
ONTO THE COAST BUT SIG REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIG NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 
THIS EVE. ONSHORE SHRAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH 
HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF KVRB LATE TONIGHT. TEMPO 
IFR/MVFR CONDS MORE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS A 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE WATERS PERSISTS. THIS WILL BUILD 
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE TREASURE 
COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS 
REGION STARTING AT 4 PM. HOWEVER BOATING CONDS WILL BE POOR THROUGH 
THE DAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
WATERS TO START.

TUE-WED...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH FROM NRN/NW 
BAHAMAS AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TUE INTO WED. E WINDS TUE 
WILL BECOME NE TUE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 
LOW. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS TO 15-19 KNOTS ON TUE AND 
POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT-WED DEPENDING ON 
STRENGTH/TRACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND SRN WATERS INTO AT LEAST TUE NIGHT 
AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO NRN/CENTRAL NEARSHORE WATERS TUE 
NIGHT/WED DEPENDING ON WIND STRENGTH AND LOW POSITION. THU-
FRI...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA A CONTINUED SWELL 
AND STRONGER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN WATERS THU AND THEN 
DECREASING INTO FRIDAY. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  65  79  67 /  20  20  20  40 
MCO  84  65  82  66 /  10  10  20  20 
MLB  80  72  80  71 /  20  20  40  40 
VRB  81  71  80  69 /  20  30  50  50 
LEE  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  20  10 
SFB  82  64  82  66 /  10  10  20  20 
ORL  83  66  82  67 /  10  10  20  20 
FPR  81  71  79  68 /  20  40  60  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT 
     WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN 
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER

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