Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS...

CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING 
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SMALL BAND FLIRTING WITH THE 
SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY/NORTH BREVARD COUNTY COAST. BRIEF
DOWNPOURS MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS HERE EARLY ON. THE PREVIOUS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON WEDNESDAY NOW RESIDES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THIS FEATURE
FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WASH OUT DURING THE DAY.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RATHER
MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AGAIN WITH PRESENT READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MOTORISTS MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE MINDFUL
TOWARD SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR SOME PATCHES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
ON ROADWAYS DUE TO FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC 
COAST IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AND EMERGE OFF OF 
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS 
FAIRLY WEAK LIGHT MORNING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A 
NORTHEAST ONSHORE COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 MPH AT 
TIMES. GFS STILL HINTS AT FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA 
DURING THE DAY IN UPWARDS OF 1.80"-2.00". MID/UPPER DYNAMICS AND 
INSTABILITY ARE MODEST AT BEST. 

WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR THE 
COAST AND UP TO 40 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A 
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY 
SLIGHT CHANCE POP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ANY ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID 
EVENING SHOULD HAVE PROGRESSED INTO THE WESTERN PENINSULA BUT WILL 
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE REDUCED TODAY...A FEW 
HEAVY CELLS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE 
SHORT-FUSED URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING A POSSIBILITY LOCALLY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL CONTINUE 
IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT 
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.

FRI...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS OVER FL. THE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE...
AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT A SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE IN THE
DAY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL
PUSH EAST TO THE COAST TOWARD EVENING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TO 30 PERCENT EXCEPT AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE (40 PERCENT) WHICH
LOOKS MORE FAVORED FOR STORMS DUE TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. 

WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL
FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A
NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN.
THE FAST MOVING STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BUT COULD CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF ORLANDO. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
COOLER BRINGING UPPER 50S INTO BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER
ALONG THE COAST.

MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
BAHAMAS MONDAY THEN RETURN NORTH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT MONDAY RAINFREE
BUT ADDED SCATTERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY (ISOLATED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH). 

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH LIGHT WINDS/VERY MOIST GROUND EXPECT TO SEE PATCHES OF FOG
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...BURNING OFF BY AROUND MID MORNING.
LIGHT MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS 6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA COULD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER
THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS 7-13 KTS.
SEAS AOB 3 FT. FORECAST SCATTERED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL BECOME ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRI...THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SO
WINDS SHOULD START OUT QUITE LIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PUSH OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.

WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT 
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING 
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO 
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT AFTN 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT NIGHT 
AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET SO CAUTION HEADLINE LOOKS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF STREAM. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
LATEST GAUGE INFORMATION SHOWS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FURTHER RISES.

THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND THESE
SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. IF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE
AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION OVER THE BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  72  89  75 /  30  10  30  40 
MCO  89  72  91  74 /  40  10  30  30 
MLB  86  73  88  75 /  30  10  30  30 
VRB  88  71  90  74 /  30  10  30  30 
LEE  89  71  91  75 /  40  10  30  40 
SFB  88  72  91  75 /  40  10  30  40 
ORL  89  74  91  75 /  40  10  30  40 
FPR  87  70  89  74 /  30  10  40  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY





National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations