Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1006 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
..a chance for heavy rain especially Sunday and Monday...
Today/tonight...low level flow will be from the east/southeast with
speeds increasing tonight...which will favor interior convection
this afternoon and the coast tonight. Middle level flow will remain
mostly out of the south so some debris rainfall from afternoon
convection should affect the north coast late in the day.
Morning GPS precipitable water data...Miami sounding and GFS
forecast soundings show some elevated dry air. Morning satellite
shows little deep convection off to our east...so current forecast
for today with lower probability of precipitation along the coast south of the cape looks
good. The latest hrrr model concentrates the heavy rain this
afternoon near/west of I-4...which looks good since this sea breeze
convection will be moving into an area with divergence aloft. There
will be a little more steering flow today so storms should show a
little more motion to the north/northwest...so expect the interior
storms will have maximum amounts around 2 inches.
Southeast flow increasing tonight should produce increased shower
and storm chances along the coast...especially south of the cape.
All of the above thinking is pretty much incorporated into the
previous forecast and little change is planned.
Aviation...mostly VFR this morning except brief MVFR as cumulus
form. Still expect increasing coverage of showers and storms
producing tempo IFR/MVFR reductions mainly across interior taf sites
Areas of lingering rain and isolated storms should extend through
early evening over the interior and possibly at dab. An increasing
moist southeast flow will lead to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain over the
waters that will push onshore overnight...especially affecting
sites between mlb and sua.
Today/tonight...pressure gradient will gradually tighten as low
pressure trough from remnants of Erika lifts into the Florida
Straits. East/southeast winds should increase enough tonight for
exercise caution conditions in the south. Elsewhere there will be
more wind chop so conditions starting out Sunday look poor for small
craft over all of the waters.
Sun-Wed...E/se maritime flow increases sun/Monday as remnant trough
from Erika draws nearer to the SW peninsula. Increase in flow will
promote areas of heavy rain with embedded storms which will
substantially drop local visibilities at times across the waters S
of the cape. Winds 15 to 20 knots sun with seas to 6 feet there. Winds
will relax a little going into Monday but seas will be a little slower
to slacken as small craft will be urged to exercise caution through
Monday. Winds to 15 knots north of the cape but with the same 6 feet seas.
Boating conditions more acceptable by middle-week with southeast winds 10
knots or less and seas 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet offshore.