Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
249 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2014
tonight and Sunday...presence of very light southerly to southeast flow along
with ample ll moisture should lead to fog potential overnight. Mav
MOS guidance no's are indicating onset of lower ceilings at or below 1k feet by the
early morning hours shortly after midnight and continuing to
degrade through daybreak Sunday. Depending on the likelihood of
low surface visibilities vs degree of low overcast will have to Reserve a chance
of a dense fog advisory at some point late tonight for a portion
of the area. Mild overnight temperatures can be expected once again with
temperatures uniformly in the lower to middle 60s.
Sun...considerable lower clouds and areas of fog early begin to
break by middle-morning with a continuation of clearing during the
rest of the day. Airmass drying as surface ridge exerts more influence
across area will allow temperatures to recover into the lower 80s over most
areas aside from the beaches and immediate coast where cooler
water temperatures and onshore breeze temper the airmass.
Mon-Sat...12z model run shows upper level ridging continuing to
flatten out and be suppressed southwards through middle week as broad
troughing develops over the western half of the US. Then middle-late
week the models show upper level low in the southwest part of the
country lifting quickly northeast across the Midwest with high
pressure ridge gradually retreating into the Atlantic. The 12z
European model (ecmwf) looks rather similar.
The first shortwave trough will dampen out as it traverses the
deep south and drive a weak frontal system that has considerable
trouble getting past the rather Stout Ridge in place over Florida.
As a result...the surface front will drag slowly across North
Florida Monday and possibly reach to the southern peninsula Wednesday
before stalling and lifting back north. Despite the large cold
surface high pressure ridge spilling across the eastern 2/3rds of
the country...the frontal boundary will never really clear the
state as flow quickly veers northeast on Wednesday then
east/southeast late in the week...which will leave behind
lingering low level moisture.
Will keep best rain chances (20-30%) Monday night-Tuesday night with the
passage of the front. Depending on how much low level moisture is
left behind as flow turns onshore...low end rain chances may linger
through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will continue above normal Monday with highs in the
lower 80s then only be knocked down slightly in the north Tuesday due
to cloudiness. Then as winds veer quickly to the northeast Wednesday
behind the front...there will be a little cooling but readings
will stay above normal.
low layered clouds with numerous ceilings at or below fl012 with 2-4sm br expected
after 28/04z...from 28/04z-28/13z numerous 1-2sm br with areas visibility below
1/2sm in fog and ceilings at or below fl008...from 28/13z-28/15z becmg scattered-
bkn015-020 with visibility 3-5sm br...after 28/15z prevailing VFR.
WV guidance continues to bring distant source swell with periods near 15-16
second into the ecfl waters overnight. WV hghts modestly reflect
initial arrival with combined seas (mainly in swell) around 3 feet
this evening and rising about a foot to two feet by Sunday
morning. Due to long period of WV source headlines will not be
required...although WV hghts especially offshore near 5 feet will occur
Mon-Thu...retreating surface ridge will bring a southerly wind
flow Monday then becoming southwest-west Tuesday as a weak frontal
boundary approaches. Speeds generally look to be 10-15 knots. A
period of northeast winds 15-20 knots behind the front is
indicated Tuesday night into Wednesday. The flow will gradually veer to the
east and southeast through Thursday with possibly a coastal trough
keeping winds backed more to the northeast in the morning near
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 64 81 63 82 / 10 10 10 10
mco 65 83 64 82 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 68 82 67 82 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 66 82 67 82 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 64 81 64 81 / 10 10 10 10
sfb 64 82 65 82 / 10 10 10 10
orl 65 82 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
fpr 66 81 66 82 / 10 10 10 10