Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
850 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
Surface high will move off the middle Atlantic coast overnight with its
axis dropping south across the Florida Peninsula into Wednesday morning.
Just above the surface...the low-middle level ridge center that is
parked overhead of Florida this evening will move off to the
southeast. The movement of both of these features will bring a
slight increase in the local gradient as winds veer more southerly.
915 mhz profiler at the cape shows winds just off the surface at 15
to 20kts which mesoscale models keep in place through the overnight
hours. We will also see surface winds slower to drop off this
evening...and perhaps remaining in the 5-10kts range along the
Brevard/Treasure Coast through most of the night. So despite mostly
clear skies and high boundary layer moisture...widespread dense fog
coverage seems unlikely as development will favor more stratus just
above the surface. However still expect to see patchy-areas of fog
developing later tonight...with overall visibilities not as low as
previous few nights. Anyone out late tonight/early Wednesday morning
will have to watch for locally dense patches in low lying areas or
near bodies of water.
Earlier cloud bands over the Atlantic have mostly dissipated...but
could see a few more Bahamas streamers or Gulf Stream showers so
kept a slight chance mention in over the water. While unlikely...a
sprinkle may reach the Martin County coast.
Overnight lows in the low-middle 60s.
Aviation...occasional ceilings fl040-060 this evening over interior
with remnants of sea breeze pushing inland. Occasional ceilings fl020
brushing coast south of kvrb through Wednesday morning with Atlantic cloud
Widespread dense fog conds seem less likely tonight due to
increasing southerly boundary layer winds. However...still expect
IFR/LIFR stratus development after 5z with patchy-areas mainly MVFR
fog in most areas other than immediate Treasure Coast. Best chance
for prevailing lower visibilities in fog will be over the north and
interior 9z-13z...with more tempo conditions along Brevard coast.
Any stratus/fog over the area in the morning will lift and break up
after 14z-15z with prevailing VFR conds returning for the afternoon
in few-scattered diurnal cumulus.
Marine...high pressure building offshore of the middle Atlantic coast
will veer winds from the east/southeast to S/southeast into tomorrow with a small
increase in the local gradient. Overall wind speeds coming up to 10-
15kts later tonight...with closer to 15kts by Wednesday afternoon
especially south of Cape Canaveral. Seas 3-5 feet. Some fog will
likely linger off of the Volusia coast overnight.
Climate...record highs for March 4th and 5th:
dab 4-Mar 88 1953
mco 4-Mar 88 1989
mlb 4-Mar 87 1982
vrb 4-Mar 89 2001
Dab 5-Mar 87 1985
mco 5-Mar 90 1929
mlb 5-Mar 88 1982
vrb 5-Mar 89 2003