Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
917 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
current-overnight...an active weather day with flooding in and
around coastal Volusia...Seminole...Orange and southern Brevard
counties. Activity is on a downward trend this evening...but still
cannot rule out an isolated shower anywhere across ecfl overnight
with all of the deep moisture...weak surface frontal
boundary...various mesoscale outflows as well as impulses aloft. An
isolated lightning threat will be possible along the Treasure Coast.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible...especially southward along
the coast. Patchy fog during the pre-dawn hours will also be
possible given the saturated soil and light winds. Clouds will be
slow to thin and still expect considerably cloudy to mostly cloudy
skies. Lows around 70 degrees to lower 70s. Will update zones
shortly to clean up first period wording.
Wednesday...previous...map feature evolution points toward the persistent
troughing which had been near the area much of the past several days
lifting northeast...allowing high pressure to build into the
southeast U.S. And Florida. A resulting low level wind becoming east
early should continue to provide a relatively moist airmass during
the day and will keep likely wording to pop potential. Under mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies. Highs in the middle and upper 80s.
Aviation...activity on a downward trend overall but isolated
convection still possible through this evening. In vicinity of convection tempo
IFR/MVFR conds. After midnight isolated showers will remain possible
due to moisture/abundant boundaries floating around. An isolated -tsra
is possible along the Treasure Coast. Some light fog could develop
all sites early Wednesday mainly due to and near calm winds.
Marine...current-overnight...few strong storms possible again over
the Gulf Stream waters with lightning...gusty winds and heavy
downpours the main threats. Seas 2-3 feet but locally higher in vicinity of of
storms. Variable winds below 10 kts outside of convection through
Wednesday...light easterly flow will develop during the day below 10 kts.
Seas around 2 feet near shore and 2-3 feet offshore...except possible 4
feet seas Wednesday afternoon well offshore and north of the Volusia-Brevard
Hydrology...previous...Shingle Creek (shif1) continues to rise this
evening following earlier heavy rainfall. Since falling earlier in
the day it has now risen back up to 57.72 feet which is just below
action stage (58.0 feet). Astor along the St. Johns River (astf1) at
2.38 feet has risen slightly but remains below action stage (action
stage is 2.5 feet).