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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
947 am EDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Discussion...

Update....10z cape and 12z Tampa soundings indicate precipitable waters from 1.7
to 1.9 inches and fairly warm middle level temperatures of -6 c at 500 mbs and 9
c at 700 mbs. Kmlb/tmco vwps Show Low level northwest/north low level flow in the
1-7 kft layer with NE winds in the middle levels. Msas surface analysis depicts
south-southwest winds at the surface from mlb south with flow around the Atlantic ridge.
Main update is to add isolated thunderstorm chances to the coastal
counties with 4km WRF for Storm Prediction Center...12km NAM and 9km WRF-arw all
indicating some convection developing along the coastal counties
before pushing inland into the interior later this afternoon.
Immediate coast should be dry but expect some isolated development
near the I-95 corridor and westward into early to middle afternoon.
High temperatures expected in the middle 90s over the interior mainly
west of I-95 and lower 90s along the coast from the cape south...
before the sea breeze develops and lower temperatures a few degrees back to
near 90 or the upper 80s along the coast.

&&

Aviation...
isolated thunderstorms and rain will develop along the East Coast sea breeze between 18z-19z
and push slowly inland through late afternoon. Have added thunderstorms in the vicinity to
interior terminals from 20z-21z to 00z-01z time frame for late
afternoon isolated-scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity.

&&

Marine...
SW/south-southwest winds 5-10 knots will become S/southeast this afternoon and become
southerly overnight to 10 knots. Seas rather flat at 1 feet near shore
and 1-2 feet offshore.

&&

Climate...Orlando International Airport hit 97 degrees yesterday 2 degrees from
their record high for the date. Highs expected in the lower to middle
90s today about 2-4 degrees from record levels.

Record highs:
today 8/22 Sat 8/23
Daytona Beach 97 (1980) 96 (1988)
Orlando 100 (1980) 99 (1915)
Melbourne 96 (1993) 95 (1960)
Vero Beach 95 (1993) 96 (1980)

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 94 75 93 77 / 20 10 10 10
mco 96 75 95 77 / 30 20 20 10
mlb 92 75 91 76 / 20 10 10 10
vrb 92 72 91 74 / 20 10 10 10
Lee 96 78 96 79 / 30 20 20 10
sfb 96 78 96 78 / 20 20 20 10
orl 96 78 96 79 / 30 20 20 10
fpr 92 72 91 74 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Ulrich

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