Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
330 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015
Current-tonight...impulses will continue to move quickly west to
east in the deep flat middle level flow. Shallow depth of moisture
suggests slight chance of storms and showers through late evening
then isolated light showers from middle level clouds. Lows in the low
and middle 70s.
Monday-Monday night...time height cross sections are indicating very deep
layered moisture field...through 200mb...which would indicate better
precipitation potential. Weak boundary settles over South Florida.
Westerly flow ahead of the boundary shifts to the north as high
pressure builds into the area.
Tue-Wed...plume of moisture ahead a Gulf of Mexico low moving to the
northeast streams northeast over Florida. Warm front moving
northward over Florida places the state in the warm section Tuesday and
Wednesday. The combination of better moisture and stronger middle level
impulses moving overhead results in much higher rain chances around
70 percent with chance of storms. Highs in the low and middle 80s.
Thu-Sat...threat for showers lingers into Thursday (mainly early) as a
weak secondary trough pushes across the area. High pressure with
drier and slightly cooler air will take hold through Friday/Friday night.
Winds veer onshore next weekend as high pressure building north of
Florida elongates eastward. Could see a small coastal showers threat develop
but rather early to gauge the strength of easterlies this far out.
Aviation...VFR prevailing. Tempo MVFR in vc of isolated
showers mainly kvrb north this evening.
Tonight...offshore flow tonight as a weak front/trough moved
southward over the coastal waters. Brief small craft exercise
caution tonight then dropping to 15 knots or less as the parent low
off New England lifts further away and the gradient weakens more.
Mon-Tue...flow shifts to the north then northeast behind the
weakening front and high pressure building over the area. Winds 10
to 15 knots or less.
Wed-Fri...southwest to west winds Wednesday and Thursday in the warm sector of
advancing low pressure system. Winds shift to the northwest late Friday
with frontal passage.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 70 82 69 79 / 20 20 30 70
mco 73 85 69 83 / 30 40 30 70
mlb 72 83 71 80 / 40 20 30 70
vrb 73 85 71 81 / 30 20 40 70
Lee 72 85 70 82 / 30 50 30 70
sfb 72 85 69 81 / 30 40 30 70
orl 73 85 70 82 / 30 40 30 70
fpr 73 86 69 82 / 20 20 40 70
Long term/impact weather...sharp