Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
925 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
Current-this afternoon...high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee
River valleys ridges southeast over central Florida. The first few
visible satellite images showing that the low level northeast wind
flow was pushing marine layer clouds...stratocumulus and
cumulus...to the coast with occasionally mostly cloudy skies south
of Fort Pierce. Stronger pressure gradient between high pressure to
the north the lower pressures associated with the troughing
northeast from the area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula
was producing a stronger pressure gradient from around Fort Pierce
south. Best low level moisture convergence should be along the
Martin County and its coastal waters.
Current forecast depicts this picture.
The morning zone update will address the winds and its related
VFR. Tempo MVFR vcsh ksua south.
Current-this afternoon...the 9 am buoy reports were indicating
northeast winds at 12 to 14 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas out to 20nm
and up to 4 feet at 120nm offshore.
Winds 15 to 20 knots Fort Pierce inlet south where the pressure
gradient is a little stronger.
Minor wind amendments and another look at sea heights.
Previous marine discussion
NE winds at 12-15 knots across the waters and slightly
stronger across the southern waters will build seas to 4 to 6 feet in the
Gulf Stream for the Brevard and Treasure Coast offshore waters
today. Will continue scec for these areas. NE winds are forecast
10-15 knots across the northern waters tonight and 15-20 knots across the
southern waters where pressure gradient is tighter near the frontal
boundary to the south. Will likely need to keep scec going for the
southern waters into tonight with seas up to 5-6 feet in Gulf Stream.
Friday-Friday night...a tighter pressure gradient develops over the area
with stronger winds southward across the coastal waters. Borderline
scec/Small Craft Advisory conditions south from Sebastian Inlet away from the coast
during the day on Friday as northeast winds increase 16-23 kts here
with slightly lower values northward. Winds will gradually decrease
areawide in the evening/overnight becoming 10-15 kts by daybreak Sat
morning. Wind direction Friday evening will back to N/NNW. Seas 2-4 feet
during the day north of Sebastian Inlet...building to 4-6 feet Gulf
Stream/offshore south of here.
Sat-Sat night...the pressure gradient continues to relax a bit as
high pressure builds in from the west with north/northwest wind speeds 10-15
kts near shore and around 15 kts offshore. Seas initially 3-5 feet
subsiding to 2-4 feet through the period.
Sun-Mon...high pressure will be in control with deepening onshore
flow both days. Wind speeds at or below 15 kts. Seas 2-3 feet possibly
building Monday overnight to 3-5 feet away from the coast.
min rhs will drop to between 37-40 percent across Lake County today with
NE winds of 10-15 miles per hour. No headlines will be required. Fri-sun...min
rhs will drop to around 40 percent over the northern interior for 1-3 hours
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 78 58 79 60 / 0 0 10 0
mco 81 60 82 60 / 0 0 10 0
mlb 79 65 81 64 / 0 0 10 0
vrb 81 68 82 66 / 10 10 20 10
Lee 80 58 82 59 / 0 0 10 0
sfb 80 59 82 59 / 0 0 10 0
orl 82 61 82 62 / 0 0 10 0
fpr 81 69 81 66 / 10 10 20 20