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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING INTO NE GULF AND 
NORTH FL HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY AND HRRR/WRF MODELS INDICATE 
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP/EMBEDDED STORM 
ACTIVITY FROM THIS BAND MAY REACH LAKE COUNTY TOWARD SUNSET. AHEAD 
OF THIS LINE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT STORMS FORMING 
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST 
COAST SEA BREEZE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE 
TO HOLD ON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER AN 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW INTO LATE DAY MAY PUSH WHAT SEA 
BREEZE REMAINS OFFSHORE. IF SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED 
INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO 
THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. IF ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DO 
OCCUR ISO STRONG STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 

RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING 
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. 

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN 
GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD 
THE FL PENINSULA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM AND TO A DEGREE THE 
WRF SHOW THIS BAND DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH AND PUSHING ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE REGION INTO THE AFT WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP GREATEST RAIN 
CHANCES/MOISTURE SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND FOR 
NOW WHICH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 50-60 PERCENT. 
SOME STRONG TO ISO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN 
OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. MAIN THREAT WOULD 
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. 

TUE...A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING SOME
DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN 
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO 20 
PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES 40 TO 50 PERCENT FROM
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. 

REST OF WEEK (PREVIOUS)...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS 
WEAKENING OVER THE NE GULF. THIS BAND MAY REACH AREAS WEST OF I-4 
TOWARD SUNSET...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS MAINLY AT 
KLEE. CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING/PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO LATE EVENING 
WITH MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING 
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR 
TOMORROW WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS INTO 
THE AFT. 

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...S/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW 
INTO LATE MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST 
STATES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFT/EVE...
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THE FL PENINSULA TUE SO
WIND FLOW WILL BE W/NW 10 KNOTS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MID WEEK WILL 
BECOME ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  68  80 /  40  40  20  20 
MCO  70  87  69  83 /  20  50  20  30 
MLB  71  87  70  82 /  40  60  30  30 
VRB  70  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50 
LEE  70  84  68  82 /  20  50  20  20 
SFB  70  85  69  83 /  30  50  20  20 
ORL  71  86  69  83 /  20  50  20  30 
FPR  69  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY

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