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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY...TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES AT LEAST 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 
AN INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER KEYS 
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDED EVEN FARTHER 
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SINCE THE BUOYS OFFSHORE WERE 
SHOWING BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHILE OUR NORTHERN LAND AREAS WERE 
LIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  

NORTHERN BAHAMA CONVERGENCE LINES AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAVE LED 
TO A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.  
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE WAS 
SHOWING A LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA 
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LARGER CLUSTERS OF 
STORMS.

THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND 
THERE WERE LIKELY SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESSING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTAL CONVECTION.  EXPECT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND 
MODEST HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE 
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING.  THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS 
BLOWUP LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE INTERIOR WITH SOME AFFECTING THE 
COASTAL COUNTIES TOO.  

THIS SETUP ALONG WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH 
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE 
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS 2-3 
INCHES...SO FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.

WE COULD JUST ABOUT RING THE BELL TODAY AND GO WITH 100 PERCENT 
POPS.  DO NOT PLAN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
PACKAGE THOUGH...WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 90 POPS.  WITH ALL THE 
RAIN AND CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND 
MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE. 

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY 
WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST COVERAGE AND 
BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST 
IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT STORM COVERAGE 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS 
THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING LIKELY 
ALONG THE COAST. 

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS 
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH FL...PRODUCES 
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP 
TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED 
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO 
NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS.

THOUGH THE STORMY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST SMALL CRAFT IN 
PORT...THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE 
COAST WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION 
STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST 
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP 
TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE 
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN 
BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY 
ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL 
TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR 
FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD 
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST. 
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN 
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER 
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN 
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER

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