Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1000 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015
Another quiet weather night as hi pressure ridge axis over the northern Gomex/Florida
Peninsula slides east under the influence of a strong zonal jet pattern
over the southern tier states. Relatively dry/stable airmass across the Florida
Peninsula aside from a pocket of enhanced h100-850 mb moisture pushing
across the Northern Peninsula. Deep east/nerly flow will continue...the USAF
915hz profiler showing 10-15kts through 10kft. Evening soundings show
slight moisture increase from 24hrs ago with precipitable water values in the 1.0"-
1.2" range...up from 0.8"-0.9".
Aside from the deep onshore flow...the ridge axis also will maintain
a very strong subsidence inversion in the 850 mb-h70 that will cap
vertical motion well below 10kft. Brief...isolated coastal rain showers develop
along the Treasure Coast as local pockets of enhanced moisture advect
onshore...but measurable rain is not expected. Late evening surface
dewpoints in the l/m60s and light but sustained winds overnight
suggest min temperatures on the same order...except along the immediate
Treasure Coast where u60s/l70s will prevail due to slightly stronger
Similar to the past two nights...sfc/low level moisture and light
boundary layer winds will allow for low clouds and patchy fog to
develop across the interior early Monday morning.
surface winds: through 30/14z...N/NE 3-6kts. After 30/14z...E/NE 8-12kts...
occasional g20kts S of kmlb.
Visibility/wx/cigs: through 30/14z...slight chance MVFR coastal rain showers S of kmlb...
areas IFR ceilings/MVFR visibilities north of kism-ktix after 30/08z. After 30/14z...
slight chance MVFR rain showers S of ktix-kism.
hi pressure ridge extending from the western Gomex to the middle Atlantic coast
will maintain a gentle to moderate NE breeze across the local Atlantic
waters overnight. The local data buoy/C-man network confirming a
gentle nerly breeze across the area...but with a slowly eroding nerly
swell that continues to enhance local seas...readings show 5-7ft
areawide with dominant periods around 11sec.
With the ridge expected to expand eastward overnight...local pgrad will
remain largely unchanged as the swell gradually dampens out along
the east Florida coast. While it will be largely transparent...especially as
the Small Craft Advisory it is set to expire in the next forecast cycle...will change the
Small Craft Advisory to an Small Craft Advisory for seas as winds clearly are no longer the driving
factor to the current sea state.
Am...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am EST Monday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian
Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet
long term/impact weather...cristaldi