Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
905 PM EST sun Feb 7 2016
Tonight...surface winds have dropped off below 10 knots. Under clear
skies...low temperatures will tumble into the middle and upper 30s most
areas by Monday morning. There will be a bit of a wind chill but not
enough for an advisory. Boundary layer flow around 10 knots will
prevent widespread frost...but the normal low lying wind protected
spots will likely see patchy frost (especially Okeechobee County and
portions of Lake County/northwest Orange.
Aviation...VFR. West winds increase after 16z reaching 15-20 knots with
gusts near 25 knots.
tonight/Mon...the pressure gradient will slowly decrease late tonight
and early Monday as a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico noses
into the waters. The ridge will be shunted south Monday afternoon as the next cold
front drops into North Florida. Although winds will temporarily drop below 20
knots (sca criteria) late tonight and early Monday...west/southwest flow will
increase Monday afternoon back to 20 knots and gusty. So there will be no need to
take he advisory down...especially since seas will be slow to subside.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.