Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1015 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
Update...active convection across the southern third County Warning Area...ahead of an
anomalously far southward push to a well defined dewpt/thetae front. Rain showers
and ts have finally wound down across Okeechobee County...and will
be updating shortly to remove evening probability of precipitation for the south. Otherwise
minor tweaks to sky cover and winds.
Aviation...VFR. For Thu/07-31...added thunderstorms in the vicinity in the 17z-22z time
frame for the central and South Coast...and started it in the
20z-22z for the ctrl0wrn interior. Probably need to add some temperature
groups eventually for the mlb-sua corridor.
Marine...buoy/C-man data shows light winds generally out of the
south-southeast-south-southwest at less than 10kt with seas 1-2ft. With 41010 only at 2.3ft
it appears unlikely that there are any 3ft seas out there at this time. As
such...will shave off that narrow area of 3ft seas out near 60nm.
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/
Thu-Fri...the weak low level trough will drift west which will
allow higher moisture band to gradually spread back across the
area. The GFS looks a bit too fast in returning chance probability of precipitation to the
north on Thursday so have gone a little below guidance there. By Friday
the model erodes the area of lower Theta-E air and scattered probability of precipitation
areawide look reasonable.
Extended (previous discussion)...
pattern looks about par for central Florida into early next week as
the Atlantic ridge axis remains the dominant weather feature. Both
GFS/European model (ecmwf) models maintain a short wave trough over the eastern
Continental U.S....but a deep layer cyclone over the Pacific northwest will intercept much
of the northern stream jet energy through the weekend. This will prevent
the trough from gaining the strength necessary to suppress the ridge
axis much further south than the central Florida Peninsula. By
Monday...models hint that a weak Erly wave over the tropics will have
worked far enough west to impact the local weather...even if indirectly.
Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms and rain showers will be the rule with temperatures near average.
VFR tonight except for a few periods of MVFR in the south terminals
generally kvrb-ksua...where there will be a chance of showers and
a slight chance of thunderstorms. On Thursday...moisture will gradually
return back northward and bring a slight chance of afternoon
storms to the interior and northern terminals...but the highest
chances look to be kmlb-ksua.
Thursday-sun (previous discussion)...anomalous troffing pattern over the
eastern Continental U.S. Will weaken through late week...allowing the Atlantic ridge
axis to rebuild over western Atlantic/eastern Gomex. A light to gentle S/southeast
breeze will prevail on Thursday... becoming gentle to moderate Friday and continuing
through weekend as the ridge axis entrenches itself over the region.
Seas at or below 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore through Sat. Seas becoming 2-3ft
nearshore and 3-4ft offshore on sun as a long Erly fetch around the
base of the Atlantic ridge pushes a small swell into the east Florida coast.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 73 92 76 91 / 10 20 20 40
mco 73 95 75 93 / 10 20 20 50
mlb 75 91 76 90 / 20 40 30 40
vrb 73 91 75 90 / 20 40 30 40
Lee 73 95 76 94 / 10 20 10 50
sfb 74 95 77 94 / 10 20 20 50
orl 76 95 78 94 / 10 20 20 50
fpr 73 90 75 90 / 20 40 30 40