Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
933 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Discussion...
mostly clear skies this evening except a few clouds with sea
breeze collision occurring over western Orange County. Not enough
moisture in the atmosphere for collision to produce any shower
activity. Winds will drop off over the next hour or two as sea
breezes dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Models show
1000-850 mb winds near calm across most of the area by early
morning and combined with clear skies and dewpoints in the low to
middle 60s...fog will be more likely tonight. Have expanded patchy
fog everywhere but the immediate coast where winds will remain
slightly elevated. Also adjusted temperatures down a degree or two
based on latest MOS guidance. Don't see anything to prevent
temperatures from dropping to or very near morning dewpoints.

&&

Aviation...
MVFR br possible 9z-12z most sites with patchy fog but particularly
inland. Showers possible Thursday afternoon along East Coast sea
breeze with best chance later afternoon over Lee with sea breeze
collision.

&&

Marine...
benign conditions with buoy 41009 only showing 2 feet wave height
this evening. Winds will drop off overnight to 5 knots or less out of
the southeast. Continued southeast winds Thursday increasing to
10-15 knots by afternoon but wave heights remain around 2 feet.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 65 82 64 84 / 0 10 20 10
mco 64 87 65 88 / 0 20 20 10
mlb 65 83 67 86 / 0 10 10 10
vrb 63 84 66 84 / 0 10 10 10
Lee 65 86 65 86 / 0 20 10 10
sfb 65 88 66 88 / 0 20 20 10
orl 65 86 67 88 / 0 20 20 10
fpr 63 82 65 85 / 0 10 10 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...Bowen
impact weather....Kelly