Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
340 am EDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Discussion...
..scattered slow moving storms with locally heavy rain today...
Today...a weak area of low pressure near the Northern Peninsula will move
little today with S/SW low level flow across much of east central Florida
early with low level flow becoming southeast across the Martin County in the
afternoon aided by the East Coast sea breeze. Short range models
still indicate a stripe of drier precipitable water air from near bkv to Leesburg
which is confirmed by the GPS precipitable water values in the 1.3 inch range
early this morning. Surrounding this area though looks to be fairly
deep moisture across North Florida and south of a tbw-xmr line. Further
south...deeper moisture with precipitable waters from 1.8 to 2.0 inches across our
central/southern zones will be advected slowly northward into the
afternoon. Some early morning convection already breaking out in a
broken line from Hardee County NE across northern Osceola to the cape
likely delineates where a ribbon of enhanced moisture resides. For
probability of precipitation...will indicate 40 percent for Lake County where initial dryness
should lead to a later start to convection and 30/40 percent for Martin
and coastal St Lucie counties where the sea breeze should push
inland this afternoon. Will continue 50 percent with a high chance for
afternoon showers and storms from the southern interior to metropolitan Orlando
to the Volusia/Brevard coast and much of interior Indian River
County. Expect a few stronger storms with locally heavy rain...gusty
winds and frequent lightning. Steering flow will a slow northward
drift across southern areas and NE 5-10 miles per hour across the north. Highs will
range from the upper 80s S coastal to lower 90s over the interior.
Tonight...inverted trough to the north will allow for increasing low
level south-southeast flow and deep moisture to move across central Florida. Will keep
higher evening probability of precipitation across the north where boundary interactions may
last into late evening. Lows in the low to middle 70s.
Fri-sun...weakening surface trough to the north late week with east-southeast
flow getting better established late week into the weekend. Mean
precipitable waters remain a little enhanced North/Western sections of County Warning Area Friday
from the old surface trough. Even after this feature lifts
north/wanes late Friday...an inverted trough moving around periphery
of Atlantic high pressure will bring some additional moisture into
the area from the southeast...helping to keep keep probability of precipitation generally in the
40/50 percent range through the weekend...30 southeast coastal sections.
Maximum temperatures near 90/lower 90s inland...upper 80s/near 90 along the
coast. Overnight mins in the middle 70s...maybe even some upper 70s
immediate Treasure Coast due to southeasterly onshore flow.
Mon-Wed...ridge aloft builds over the southeast and surface ridge axis will
be located to the north early next week. This will keep ec Florida in
generally southeasterly flow. Influence of ridge aloft may act to nudge maximum
temperatures up a tad and decrease probability of precipitation a bit...but still in the 30/40
percent range. Highs lower 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90 coast.
&&
Aviation...expect mainly VFR outside of convection that will be
most prevalent across interior terminals and kdab to kvrb during the
middle to late afternoon. Convection may last into the evening hours
across northern terminals...north of kism-kmlb line.
&&
Marine...southerly winds to 10 to 15 knots into tonight. Seas 2-3
feet for the near shore zones and up to 4 feet well offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet. Fri-Tue...winds of 10-15kt occasional 15kt will stay
generally out of the southeast Friday over the weekend and into early next
week. Undercutting guidance sea heights by around a foot since
latest runs (as did the past several runs) look too high.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 90 74 89 76 / 50 30 50 20
mco 93 73 92 74 / 50 30 40 30
mlb 89 75 88 78 / 50 30 30 20
vrb 88 74 88 77 / 40 20 30 20
Lee 93 75 91 74 / 40 30 50 40
sfb 93 75 92 74 / 50 30 50 30
orl 93 75 92 74 / 50 30 40 30
fpr 88 74 88 76 / 40 20 30 20
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Short term/aviation...volkmer
long term....glitto
