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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
326 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Discussion...

Tonight/Wed...high pressure building offshore of the middle Atlantic
coast will continue eastward into tomorrow with ridge axis building
across the region. This will allow low level onshore winds to become
southerly and increase into tonight. Main concern will continue to
be fog development across central Florida and have kept a mention of
patchy fog to areas of fog in for tonight. However with elevated
boundary layer winds overnight...widespread dense fog coverage seem
less likely. Later shifts will have to continue to monitor though
in case any dense fog advisories are needed. Cloud bands over the
Atlantic generating isolated light showers will continue to keep a
slight chance for showers over the Atlantic. May see some
continued sprinkles move onshore especially south of the cape in
the evening.

Any stratus/fog over the region in the morning will mix out by late
morning with warm and dry conditions expected tomorrow after. Highs
will range from the low-middle 80s...with upper 80s possible over the
interior. Orlando is forecast to come close to its record high of
88 degrees tomorrow (see climate section below).

Thursday...warm day again. Temperatures again several degrees above normal with
southerly flow component in low levels and continued influence from
ridging aloft. Daytime highs should have no problem climbing into
the middle/upper 80s over the interior and just a few degrees lower at
teh coast. Moisture will be confined to the lowest levels with dry
high pressure at the middle levels so just anticipating scattered to
broken clouds but no mentionable probability of precipitation at this time.

Thursday night...ridge axis begins to retreat a little southward ahead of
frontal boundary. Latest model runs suggest mentionable probability of precipitation will
mainly remain north of ec Florida through the overnight hours but may see
an isolated shower across the far northern sections. Overnight
min temperatures again on the mild side...in the low/middle 60s.

Previous extended discussion...
Friday...models indicating that the deepest moisture associated with
the slow advancing front remains over North Florida. Painted highest
pop over northern areas where best moisture and middle/upper level
vorticity and jet divergence are forecast to occur. Highs range from
the upper 60s northern portions of lake and Volusia counties to the
upper 70s around Lake Okeechobee.

Sat-Mon...both the GFS and Canadian long term indicating better
moisture and inverted troughing over the western Atlantic than the
European model (ecmwf) long term. Moisture ribbon shifts into central Florida enough
to keep slight to chance...20 to 30 pop...through the period.

&&

Aviation...VFR conds expected to continue into the evening...then
stratus with IFR/MVFR conds overspreading the area overnight. Best
chance for lower visibilities in fog will be over the north and
interior late tonight. However more widespread dense fog conds seem
less likely due to increasing southerly boundary layer winds.

Any stratus/fog over the area in the morning will lift and break up
into late morning with VFR conds returning for the afternoon.

&&

Marine...

Tonight/Wed...high pressure building offshore of the middle Atlantic
coast will veer winds from the east/southeast to S/southeast tonight into tomorrow.
Winds speeds will range between 10-15 knots with seas 3-5 feet.
Patchy fog will likely linger off of the Volusia coast into
tonight.

Thurs-sun...specific timings a little tricky this far out but
coastal waters will transition from a southerly component around
10kt early Thursday to a stronger northerly component and increasing
seas by Friday as front pushes down over the waters. The boundary
will stall out somewhere across the southern waters over the weekend.
Anticipate Small Craft Advisory headlines needed by late week.

&&

Climate...

Climate...record highs for March 4th and 5th:
record high
dab 4-Mar 88 1953
mco 4-Mar 88 1989
mlb 4-Mar 87 1982
vrb 4-Mar 89 2001

Dab 5-Mar 87 1985
mco 5-Mar 90 1929
mlb 5-Mar 88 1982
vrb 5-Mar 89 2003

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 63 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 10
mco 64 87 65 88 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 66 83 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 65 85 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 63 86 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
sfb 64 86 65 86 / 10 10 10 10
orl 65 87 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
fpr 65 85 65 86 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...weitlich
long term/impact weather....glitto

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