Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
8 PM EDT Thursday may 28 2015
..rough surf and elevated rip current threat continues into the
..onshore flow will bring onshore moving showers this weekend with
some afternoon storms possible mainly across inland areas...
Updated zones to remove the beach hazards headline for the coastal
counties and make the overnight wording current.
Last couple of visible satellite images showed marine stratocumulus
over the coastal waters coming ashore as more stratocumulus
extending well out into the Atlantic was moving toward Florida in the
deep easterly flow.
Can not rule out a few sprinkles and/or light rainshowers over the
coastal waters making it inland past Interstate 95 from around Ponce
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet. This is what the current forecast shows.
VFR. Sct035-050...brief bkn35-050...at the coast and clear-few030-040 inland.
Marine... buoys recording east northeast winds around 15 knots away
from the coastline and around 10 knots at the beachside cman sites.
Buoys were recording primarily 3 to 4 foot seas out to 20nm and to 6
feet at buoy 010 120nm east of New Smyrna Beach. The 10 to 15 knot
easterly wind forecast on track. Wave guidance suggesting seas to 5
feet in the Gulf Stream as easterly swells propagate into the
coastal waters after midnight. This looks reasonable given buoy
010's current marine ob of 6 foot 8 second seas with a 5 foot 8
second easterly swell component.
Through tonight...diurnal cumulus/SC field will dissipate Post sunset
leaving clear to mclear skies with save for a few scraps of marine
SC pushing onshore the East Coast. Later tonight...the leading edge
of higher mean moisture (seen in watervapor/tpw imagery as well as
rap analysis of higher surface td's) currently near 75w will reach the
coast...most likely around 08z/09z. Expect to see some increase in
covrg and intensity of marine rain showers accompany this area...with some
measurable precipitation possible prior to sunrise in some spots along the
space/Treasure coasts. Mins in the u60s inland and l70s along the
Friday...plume of higher precipitable water air (up to 1.5" spreads inland during
the day...leading to a little better chance/coverage of fast moving
diurnal rain showers along a quickly inland-moving and diffuse ecsb. Small
chance for ts...mainly over the interior. Rain chances decrease locally
before sunset as the sea breeze boundary reaches western Florida and narrow plume
of slightly drier air works its way over land toward sunset.
Maximum temperatures in the m80s along the immediate coast...u80s west of I-95
and around 90f over the western interior (mainly lake co).
Friday night...the western ridge remains in place north of the area
across the western Atlantic. Deep onshore flow and adequate moisture
will continue to allow for a low end shower chance (30 percent)
along the coast with a slight chance further inland for this
diminishing precipitation. Mild with overnight lows in the u60s to
Previous extended discussion slightly modified...
Saturday...another perturbation in the easterly flow will bring
increasing moisture and slightly higher shower/thunderstorm chances to
interior sections to around 40 percent on Saturday afternoon. Will keep
probability of precipitation in the 30-40 percent range along the coast with some shower
activity pushing onshore through middle day...before most of the
convection moves toward the interior by late afternoon.
Sunday...a middle level trough will drop into the lower MS valley with middle
level winds starting to turn to the SW by late Sunday. Low level east-southeast
flow will and precipitable waters to 1.7-1.8 across the interior should allow for
scattered diurnal activity moving inland along the East Coast breeze
by middle to late afternoon. Probability of precipitation again will be 30-40 coastal and 40 percent
for the interior. Highs for both weekend days should reach the middle
80s coast and around 90 for the interior.
Monday...east-southeast low level flow is expected in the surface-850 layer with some
drying above 700 mbs but still enough low level moisture to drive
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior in the
afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze moves inland. Will taper probability of precipitation
to 20 percent near the immediate coast and 30-40 percent across the
Tue-Thu...an unsettled pattern is developing into middle week as a middle
level trough drops slowly southeast toward the northern Gulf Coast. Flow around the
trough will draw plentiful moisture northward into middle week toward east
central Florida. 00z GFS is continuing its pattern of recent days and
spins up a surface low near the Florida Peninsula for middle week and lifts it
northward. GFS model trends from the past few days have been to gradually
move the low track westward and keep east central Florida on the wet side of
the low as deep moisture lifts over the area Wed-Thu. The European model (ecmwf) is
not showing much surface low development but does also gradually
increase moisture levels into middle week. Will gradually increase probability of precipitation
toward middle week up to around 50 percent...though this may conservative
if anything near the 00z GFS solution verifies.
Aviation...VFR. Becoming sky clear inland and few-sct035 near the coastal
flight corridor. Small chance for MVFR ceilings/visibilities in -shra after 09z
with isolated-scattered rain showers spreading inland 12z-18z and areas to prevailing
diurnal cumulus/SC ceilings bkn040-050.
Marine...tonight through Tuesday...easterly winds will continue to
around 15 knots overnight/Friday and then decreasing to 10-15 knots
over the weekend. Seas should reach 5-6 feet offshore and 4-5 feet for
the near shore waters for Friday and then decrease to 4-5 feet Sat-
sun. Mon/Tue...east-southeast winds are expected around 10 knots with seas 3 feet
near shore and 3-4 feet offshore.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 70 83 72 86 / 10 30 30 40
mco 68 88 71 89 / 10 30 20 40
mlb 73 85 73 86 / 20 30 30 30
vrb 72 86 72 87 / 20 30 30 40
Lee 68 89 72 90 / 0 30 10 40
sfb 67 87 71 89 / 10 30 20 40
orl 68 88 72 88 / 10 30 20 40
fpr 71 85 71 87 / 20 30 30 40