Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
403 PM EST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
Tonight...the strong and gusty west winds this afternoon will lose
their gustiness with sunset then veer to the northwest. Temperatures will
fall into the low and middle 40s late tonight. Northwest winds 5-10 miles per hour will
produce a wind chill with lowest wind chill values early Wednesday
morning in the middle 30s. This is very marginal for a Wind Chill
Advisory and will opt to be conservative and hold off.
Wednesday...N/NW winds to start the day will veer to the north/NE by
afternoon. This may bring some marine stratocu toward the coast
south of the cape. But it will be a mostly sunny day especially
over the interior. It will not be as windy as previous days but it
will be breezy especially along the coast. High temperatures should struggle to
get out of the 50s along the Volusia coast...low to middle 60s for
highs elsewhere. This is 8-10 degrees below normal.
Thursday-Friday...zonal to weakly anticyclonic flow on Thursday will
be punctuated by another...though considerably weaker...upper level
trough swinging through the East Coast on Friday.
Surface high along the eastern Seaboard will settle across Florida
by Thursday afternoon...and then be absorbed by stronger high across
the Great Lakes by Friday night. In between...upper trough will
drive rapidly weakening surface front into the peninsula by late
Friday. Development of marine showers expected Friday eve/night...but
will keep land areas dry for now as NE wind surge appears to hold
off until Saturday.
High temperatures both days still a few degrees cooler than normal
in most places with upper 60s and low 70s. Thursday morning will be
a chilly start with low bottoming out in the low to middle 40s most
places around daybreak and upper 40s/around 50 along
Brevard/Treasure Coast as winds just above the surface veer more
onshore. Temperatures Friday morning milder as onshore flow prevails
with lows seasonably in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Saturday-Monday...with the surface ridge already overrunning the
weak front as it slides through the peninsula on Saturday...period
of northwest flow will be very brief with winds out of the
east-northeast by the afternoon as main surface high center moves
towards New England and eventually offshore the Carolina coast on
Weekend will see a period of increasing east-southeast fetch
favoring low level moisture convergence along the remnant frontal
boundary across the peninsula. Pattern is favorable for Atlantic and
coastal showers...so will keep 20-30 percent mention in the forecast
through the weekend. Another weakening front with a little deeper
moisture moves into the region on Monday...keeping rain chances
around 20-30 percent.
Temperatures near climatology in the low 70s Saturday...then warming a few
degrees into the middle-upper 70s for Sunday with a more southerly low
level wind component. Monday will be a few degrees cooler across
the north around 70 due to the front moving into the region...but
areas south of Orlando will still reach into the middle-upper 70s.
Overnight lows in the middle-upper 50s with a few lower 60s along space
and Treasure coasts.
VFR. Strong and gusty west winds will subside with sunset and veer
northwest 7-10 knots. North winds Wednesday 10-15 knots.
tonight/Wed...will keep the Small Craft Advisory in place for all
the Atlantic coastal waters until early this evening then replace the
nearshore waters with a caution as winds veer to the northwest and
decrease slightly. Winds continue to veer Wednesday becoming north
remaining 15-20 knots. This will keep hazardous conditions for the
Gulf Stream so the advisory will probably need to be extended
farther out in time.
Thu-Fri...ridge center drops down over region on Thursday leading to
east-northeast winds 10kts in the morning becoming east-southeast in
the afternoon 5-10kts. Weak frontal boundary dropping into region
will veer winds around to the west-southwest overnight mainly north
of the cape while areas south will remain light and variable in the
vicinity of the ridge center. Another weak frontal passage Friday
morning with northwest winds increasing to 10-15kts...becoming
northeast overnight as high over Great Lakes becomes dominant.
Seas up to 7 feet in the Gulf Stream on Thursday...otherwise a
gradual downtrend with 4-6ft nearshore/5-6ft offshore becoming 2-4ft
nearshore/4-5ft offshore on Friday.
Sat-sun...brief northeast surge Sat morning bringing winds to
15-20kts as high center migrates from Great Lakes to middle Atlantic.
Steady east-southeast flow around 15kts Sat afternoon veering
east-southeast 15-20kts Sat night and Sunday as gradient tightens
ahead of next system moving through Tennessee/Ohio valleys. Will likely see
at least cautionary conditions this weekend...if not advisory
conditions for portions of the waters if current forecast trends
Seas 3-5ft nearshore/4-6ft offshore on Saturday...increasing to
5-7ft over most of the waters into Sunday as east-southeast fetch
increases in combination with swell from another North Atlantic storm
reaches the local waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 40 59 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
mco 43 62 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
mlb 42 63 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
vrb 44 64 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lee 42 62 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
sfb 42 61 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
orl 44 62 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
fpr 44 64 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for coastal
Volusia-Indian River-inland Volusia-northern Brevard-
Northern Lake-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-southern Brevard-
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for coastal
waters from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line
out 20 nm-coastal waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
Inlet out 20 nm-coastal waters from Volusia Brevard County
line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Wednesday for waters from
Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 nm
offshore-waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 to
60 nm offshore-waters from Volusia Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore.