Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
9 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014
..heat continues over the weekend...
Evening update will remove precipitation from the overnight grids
and lower rain chances to less than 15 percent. Skies mostly clear
Previous zones discussion
tonight...middle afternoon cumulus field is becoming becoming better
developed with towering cumulus and isolated showers/thunderstorms developing
along the East Coast breeze and across the northern interior. Isolated to
scattered activity should continue to develop into the late
afternoon and evening as the east and West Coast sea breezes push
inland with a late collision possible near or just west of the
Orlando metropolitan into Lake County. Could be a few strong late
afternoon/evening storms before storm coverage diminishes late in
the evening. Lows in the middle to upper 70s.
Saturday...an area of surface low pressure will retrograde toward southeast Georgia
on Sat with the surface ridge across central and S Florida. Moisture remains
extremely limited above 700 mbs with precipitable waters from 1.7 to 1.8 inches.
Expect the East Coast sea breeze to push inland with 20-30 percent chance
of storms across the interior by middle to late afternoon. Temperatures
will be hot again with highs ranging from lower 90s along the Treasure
Coast to middle to upper 90s over the interior. Heat indices will
approach 105 degrees over inland areas.
Sunday...a back door front will approach the area with SW winds
early becoming NE in the afternoon. Moisture depth will increase
with the boundary and should be enough to raise probability of precipitation into the
scattered range for northern sections and the interior. Highs lower 90s
coast to middle 90s over the interior. Slightly higher cloud cover on
Sunday afternoon associated with the back door front should keep
probability of precipitation a degree or two cooler than Sat.
Mon-Thu...previous discussion...relatively dry weather period shaping up
for next week. The ridge portion of the Omega block will stretch and
elongate east of the MS River Valley...deformed by the slowly advancing
short wave trough over the western Continental U.S. And the tropical disturbance over
the NE Caribbean that is forecast lift across or east of the Bahama bank Mon/Tue.
Deep east/NE flow will continue...allowing relatively dry/stable to
push across central Florida. GFS/European model (ecmwf) models indicate a middle level thermal
ridge pushing into the Florida Peninsula by Tuesday next week with h70 temperatures
warming to around 10c...h50 temperatures at or above -2c. The lack of thermal
instability alone warrants below climatology probability of precipitation...but the prevailing deep
layer NE flow clinches it. Will cap precipitation chances at or below
30pct...continued warm with afternoon temperatures in the l/m90s...morning mins in
Aviation...VFR through late morning...14-15z.
Current-overnight...buoys and cman buoy sites recording southerly
winds around 5 knots and 1 to 2 foot seas.
High pressure dominates the area/S weather. Light winds and seas 2
feet or less overnight.
Previous marine zones discussion
southerly flow across the waters this weekend will become NE Sunday
night into Monday and increase to 15-20 knots with seas building to
5-7 feet offshore early next week. The long NE fetch Tuesday-Wednesday between
the high pressure near the middle Atlantic and tropical system well
offshore should keep seas/swells elevated into Tue-Wed.
Fire weather...min rhs may drop to 35-40 percent over the interior Sat
afternoon and around 40 percent on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered lightning storms
over the interior both afternoons over the upcoming weekend. Breezy
NE winds developing Monday-Tuesday will pose a fire weather concern.
today 8/22 Sat 8/23 sun 8/24
Daytona Beach 97 (1980) 96 (1988) 95 (1989)
Orlando 100 (1980) 99 (1915) 99 (1915)
Melbourne 96 (1993) 95 (1960) 95 (1960)
Vero Beach 95 (1993) 96 (1980) 95 (1947)
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 76 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 30
mco 76 97 77 95 / 20 30 10 30
mlb 75 93 75 92 / 10 10 10 20
vrb 73 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 20
Lee 78 97 79 96 / 20 30 20 40
sfb 78 97 79 96 / 20 20 10 30
orl 79 97 80 96 / 20 30 10 30
fpr 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 20