Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
354 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014
Today-tonight...ongoing thin line of showers streaming from the
Atlantic into the coast is approximately marking the low level
convergence associated with the weak frontal boundary this morning.
Activity has been fairly consistent along a east-southeast-west-northwest oriented line
from over the Atlantic into the cape and across southern Volusia
This boundary has already lifted northwards and become more north-S
oriented than last evening. The trend will continue to be for this
band of showers to continue to lift northwards across Volusia County
through early afternoon as the front lifts back to the north with
most of the showers eventually remaining over the local Atlantic as
low level flow becomes more south-southwest on the back side of the
boundary. Will keep isolated-scattered light showers in the forecast along
the North Brevard and Volusia coasts through early afternoon...with
a few reaching into interior Volusia County.
Outside of this activity...conditions are expected to remain dry
under partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures. Highs will reach
into the middle-upper 80s over the interior and low 80s along the
Dry conditions continue over land tonight with a few lingering
showers over the Atlantic. Lows in the low-middle 60s...with a few
upper 60s along the space and Treasure coasts.
Tuesday...a middle layer trough across the East Coast and moisture
returning from the south will bring a slight chance of afternoon
showers and lightning storms from southern Osceola/southern Brevard south to
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. The
deepest moisture return will exist from Okeechobee County to Martin
and St Lucie counties where isolated afternoon storms will be
favored. Further north extent of deeper moisture return makes
convective probabilities somewhat uncertain. Will go with a slight chance
of afternoon storms with some dynamic support with the rr quadrant of an
80 knots jet and 12km NAM shows some discrete convection developing in
the afternoon. High temperatures will warm be in the middle 80s in
the prefrontal airmass.
Tuesday night...a cold front will move through central Florida and push toward
southern sections with a drier air filtering into Northern Lake and Volusia
counties and deep moisture remaining across Okeechobee County and
the Treasure Coast. Will keep evening convective chances confined to
southern areas through late evening. Lows in the middle to upper 60s.
Wed-Thu...surface high pressure will build toward the southeast states as a
stationary boundary pushes across the southern counties Wednesday toward Lake
Okeechobee on Thursday. Northerly low level flow will veer to the NE behind
the boundary with deep drying across northern sections. Closer to the
slow moving front deep moisture will reside and will keep low
shower/thunderstorm chances mainly across southern sections for middle week.
00z GFS indicates tropical disturbance near the Yucatan will begin
to eject eastward by Thursday afternoon. Highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Fri-Sat...on Friday the main closed low and trough across the NE
states will begin to push offshore as another short wave on its back side
drops southeast toward the Carolinas. 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicates some surface low
development with the system as it moves east of the Yucatan with
current model guidance suggesting that the low track will be well to
our south. Even with this scenario moisture may wrap around the northwest
side of the elongated deep moisture area across far S Florida in the
Bahamas as the low tracks east or east-northeast. Will keep highest rain chances
in the scattered range across the far southern areas where some Atlantic
showers will move onshore with east and then NE to the north of any
potential development area. For northern areas...mainly dry weather is
forecast at this time...though this could change some with later
forecasts. See latest 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook from
NHC for the latest information on this system.
Sun-Mon...00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicates elongated low pressure are and
deep moisture will push through the Bahamas and away from central
Florida. NE flow will veer to onshore with only slight shower chances
Aviation...spotty MVFR mifg/br this morning through 12z in all
locations except east of ktix-kded-omn. Line of isolated-widely scattered -shra
from Atlantic crossing coast affecting areas east of ktix-kded-komn
through 16z with tempo MVFR ceilings fl020-030. Otherwise...prevailing
Today-tonight...weak frontal boundary currently located around Cape
Canaveral will slowly lift north of the region today. For the waters
north of Cape Canaveral...east-northeast winds 10-15kts becoming
southeast by late afternoon. South of Cape
Canaveral...south-southeast winds 5-10kts. South winds 10-15kts over
all the waters overnight becoming west-southwest towards daybreak as
the front moves back south.
Seas 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore with up to 5ft over the Gulf
Stream. Dominant periods 9-11sec...with 6-7sec over Gulf Stream.
A weak pressure pattern is expected Tuesday with a front moving
across the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds will increase from the north
to NE into late week with seas building to at least scec levels by
Thursday into Friday as winds increase to 15-20 knots.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 63 85 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
mco 66 86 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 10 20
vrb 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 20
Lee 67 86 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
sfb 65 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
orl 67 86 68 84 / 10 10 10 10
fpr 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 30