Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
335 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014
Today-tonight...high pressure centered well north of the area will
slide offshore. This will cause the gradient wind to become
southeast today and southerly late tonight. This flow should nudge
up the low level moisture values.
Latest 500mb analysis shows a weak shortwave trough moving
eastward towards the eastern Gulf. Though it is essentially
cloudless at the present time...as the associated cool pocket
moves across the peninsula this afternoon...the atmosphere will
destabilize. GFS forecast soundings indicate cape a little over
1000 j/kg this afternoon...which is contingent upon erosion of the
present capping inversion. This looks reasonable given the weak
shortwave in the Gulf at the current time.
Think that any chance for thunder will be with the collision of
the east/West Coast sea breeze boundaries. Our local WRF model
suggests this will occur near 00z in Lake County. This is where
the GFS generated its maximum precipitation. Therefore...have added a slight
chance for storms west of a line from western Orange County to
Lake George. Given the limited amount of deep moisture will
confine the rain chances to a relatively short period of time...
roughly 5 PM through 10 PM.
Otherwise we are looking at a warm day and mild night. Temperatures will
be at to a degree or two above the readings from Wednesday. Patchy late
night fog still possible inland late tonight.
Fri-sun...high pressure over the west Atlantic shifts farther
eastward Friday as a weak frontal boundary moves through the
southeast states. Precipitable water values actually decrease late week as drier air
builds in from the west. Model guidance keeps any isolated afternoon
convection limited to areas south of the Treasure Coast...so will
keep rain chances out of the forecast for east central Florida. Tail
end of front will fade as it moves toward north central Florida
Saturday with warm and dry conditions expected to persist. Weak area
of high pressure will reestablish itself over the west Atlantic
Sunday. Low level southeast flow will increase moisture enough to
maintain a slight chance for showers and storms mainly with the sea
breeze collision over the interior later in the afternoon.
Partly sunny skies expected each day with temperatures remaining
above normal. Highs will reach the low-middle 80s along the coast with
upper 80s/around 90 degrees occurring inland. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 60s with min temperatures around 70 possible in some
locations Sunday night.
Mon-Wed...upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. Will shift east
into early next week. Low level south-southeast flow will maintain
sufficient moisture for the development of isolated showers and
storms across the region both Monday and Tuesday afternoons
especially with any sea breeze interactions later in the day. Flow
becomes more southwest toward middle week as a cold front moves into
the southeast U.S. And towards Florida. Moisture will continue to
increase ahead of this boundary with rain chances increasing. Above
normal temperatures will continue for the last few days of April.
Aviation...cape wind profilers showing a bit of a low level jet
during the early morning hours and keeping the boundary layer
slightly mixed. Expect winds to ease though and patchy MVFR mist
will occur in the pre dawn hours. The daytime hours will be VFR
except for a small area over the interior late in the day where
there is a slight chance for showers or storms with the east/west
sea breeze collision. The areal coverage will be low so we cannot
put this into the tafs at the present time.
today-tonight...high pressure ridge sliding into the Atlantic will
cause a southeast wind flow today...becoming south tonight. Speeds
should be around 10 knots...but the East Coast sea breeze will
likely kick in around 15 knots especially from Canaveral southward.
Southeast/south winds at 10-15 knots should continue into the
Fri-Mon...favorable boating conditions expected. Winds remain less
than 15 knots through the period initially out of the south Friday
then becoming northwest to north Saturday. As sea breeze forms and
moves inland Saturday afternoon winds eventually become east veering
to the southeast Sunday into Monday. Seas remain between 2-3
Fri-sun...min relative humidity values each afternoon will reach between 35-40
percent across the far interior but winds remain relatively light.
No rain chances Friday or Saturday but a few storms may develop late
in the afternoon Sunday with the sea breeze collision over the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 84 64 85 63 / 10 10 10 10
mco 87 65 88 64 / 20 20 10 10
mlb 83 66 86 63 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 83 66 85 64 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 86 65 87 65 / 20 20 10 10
sfb 87 65 87 66 / 20 20 10 10
orl 87 67 88 66 / 20 20 10 10
fpr 83 66 86 64 / 10 10 10 10