Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
430 am EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
..rain/storm chances increase Sunday night through Monday night...
a large h100-h70 hi pressure ridge extending from the western Gomex to the
middle Atlantic is embedded within a deep zonal flow through the 850 mb-h30 layer
that will push it into the west Atlantic by sunset. There...it will anchor
itself across the Central Peninsula overnight. Surface/low level winds will
respond by veering to the east/NE by midday...then to the S/southeast by
While the developing onshore flow will push ocean moisture across central
Florida...the ridge itself will maintain a tight subsidence inversion in
the h90-h70 layer that will cap vertical motion below 5kft. Evening
soundings measured precipitable water values below 0.5" while infrared Sat pics reveal
only a marine stratocu deck over the west Atlantic. These will pancake out
along the base of the inversion as the developing onshore flow pushes
them back to the west.
After a cool start to the day...the Erly flow will allow temperatures to
recover into the l/m70s (arnd 5f below avg). Min temperatures tonight in the
l/m50s over most of the area will be within a degree or two of average.
Sat/Sat night...high pressure center will shift farther seaward
with an axis extending back into central Florida. This will cause
a southeast/south return wind flow with maximum temperatures getting back
close to average on Sat...upper 70s coast/lower 80s interr with
negligible rain chances.
Sun/Sun night...low pressure advancing eastward across the
southeast states will increase the southerly flow. It will be a
warm and windy with an increase in high cloudiness and scattered
cumulus. The day looks mostly rainfree and have lowered probability of precipitation
across the board. The GFS remains faster than the European model (ecmwf) so we will
show a slight chance for showers into North Lake and Volusia
counties late in the day. Have raised probability of precipitation for Sunday night across
the north to 50 percent as models bring deep convection into the
area ahead of the cold front.
Mon-Thu...confidence is increasing that the best rain/storm chances
will be Monday into Monday night. Have raised probability of precipitation to 60 percent
from Brevard/Osceola north for Monday and this may shift into the
evening as there remains noticeable timing differences. The GFS
continues to be faster and stronger with the surface low but will
continue to lean toward the slower European model (ecmwf). Given the strong wind
fields there looks to be a threat for strong storms.
The front should push through Monday night ending the threat for
thunder but will carry a slight chance for showers into Tuesday
morning. Will carry a dry forecast from Tuesday afternoon Onward.
Cold air advection will be limited with this front due to the
progressive upper pattern. Winds veer onshore by Tuesday and maximum temperatures
quickly return to the lower 80s by middle week. Min temperatures will cool
into the 50s Tuesday night behind the front.
through 15/00z...VFR all sites. Hi pressure building off the Carolina coast
and into the west Atlantic will force a surface wndshft from north/NE to east/NE at or below
12kts between 14/12z-14/15z...then to southeast at or below 8kts by 15/00z.
today-tonight...data buoys/C-man stations continue to measure
15-20kt nearly winds with seas 3-5ft nearshore and estimated 4-6ft
offshore. Hi pressure ridge extending from the western Gomex to the middle Atlantic
will push into the west Atlantic today and anchor itself across the Central
Peninsula overnight. As a result...the local pgrad will slacken with
surface/boundary layer winds diminishing from the current moderate to fresh
nearly breeze to a gentle to moderate east/NE breeze by midday...then to
the southeast overnight. Seas diminishing to 3-5ft by early afternoon...then to
While current conditions are borderline Small Craft Advisory...they are trending
downward. Will allow the current Small Craft Advisory to expire as scheduled but will
continue with a cautionary statement with the morning package.
Weekend...high pressure center will shift farther seaward and a
ridge axis will extend back to Florida. Southeast/south winds Sat
should be 10 knots or less which will make it the better boating
day. On Sunday both GFS/European model (ecmwf) models show south winds increasing to
near 20 knots as low pressure advances eastward over the
Mon-Tue...the preferred scenario is for a cold front to push
across the waters Monday night. South to southwest flow should
continue Monday with flow veering to west northwest on Tuesday. Although
there is some uncertainty regarding the strength of the surface low
that will push off the southeast US coast...boating conditions look to
remain poor early next week.
today...sfc/transport winds will shift from north/NE to east/NE after
sunrise as a hi pressure ridge builds off the middle Atlantic/southeastern Seaboard
and into the west Atlantic. The onshore flow will allow the dry airmass
to modify...though min relative humidity values may fall below 35pct along and north of
the I-4 corridor for 3-5hrs.
Weekend...on Sat winds will be light south to southeast (10 knots
or less) with min relative humidity values still dropping near 35 percent over
the north interior. Low level moisture will creep upwards Sunday
with min relative humidity values remaining above 40 percent but south winds will
increase near 20 miles per hour with higher gusts and produce excellent
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 71 54 77 59 / 0 10 0 10
mco 76 53 81 58 / 0 10 0 10
mlb 72 57 78 64 / 0 10 0 10
vrb 73 56 78 62 / 0 10 0 10
Lee 75 53 79 58 / 0 10 0 10
sfb 75 53 80 59 / 0 10 0 10
orl 75 54 80 60 / 0 10 0 10
fpr 72 55 78 61 / 0 10 0 10