Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
346 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
tonight and Sunday...lack of developed cumulus over much of area at
diurnal convective maximum spells lower than anticipated coverage for
precipitation the remainder of the afternoon. Have lowered coverage to
isolated phrasing the rest of the evening for all except the I-4
corridor westward. Light onshore steering will end precipitation chances rather early
this evening. There will be a chance of redevelopment of isolated showers
tonight over the Atlantic waters in weakly onshore flow mainly south of
Sunday...similar setup to today with ample moisture and scattered
coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon. Layer winds
remain light so it will be boundary driven activity focusing
inland during the course of the afternoon.
Monday-late week...(prev disc) little change in the surface ridge
position just to our north is indicated. A middle to upper level low
is prognosticated to lumber slowly west through the Bahamas and reach
southern portions of the state late in the week as it gradually
weakens. Precipitable water is forecast to remain a bit subdued
ahead of this feature...so probability of precipitation around 30 percent indicated by MOS
look good Mon-Tue. As the middle/upper low gets closer on Wednesday...there
should be moistening and cooling aloft mainly in the south so have
gone with 40 probability of precipitation...which is a little above MOS. The moistening
and destabilization is prognosticated to overspread the area Thursday-Friday so
probability of precipitation will rise to 40 percent or greater areawide.
isolated showers and thunder mainly inland through 02z then VFR conds
after 02z. With some isolated coastal rain showers S of cof.
Tonight/sun....seas mainly 2 feet. There is indications of some swell
entering the waters bringing some 3 feet seas offshore during sun.
Around 2 feet should continue near the coast.
Mon-Wed...surface ridge position is forecast to extend just north
of the waters. This will provide an east/southeast wind flow.
Speeds look mainly 10 knots or less. This flow regime usually
favors night/morning shower chances with isolated storms. The
marine storms may start to pack more punch Tuesday/Wednesday as a pocket of
cooler air aloft moves in from the southeast.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 76 91 75 91 / 20 30 20 30
mco 75 95 75 94 / 20 30 20 30
mlb 76 90 77 91 / 20 30 20 30
vrb 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
Lee 76 95 76 94 / 30 40 20 30
sfb 77 95 76 94 / 20 30 20 30
orl 77 95 77 93 / 20 30 20 30
fpr 75 90 75 90 / 20 30 20 30