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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
307 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Discussion...
current-tonight...sea breeze formed and was pushing westward over
the coastal areas Fort Pierce north. South of Fort Pierce the sea
breeze had made it inland much further...west of the Interstate
Turnpike corridor...with a few stronger storms being detected west
of the Saint Lucie area. Precipitable water values around 2 inches
and a slow storm motion of 5 to 10 miles per hour will lead to heavy slow
moving showers and isolated storms this afternoon and into the
evening. Any sea breeze collision over the interior looks to be
toward sunset and west of the Orlando area. In the mean time...slow
moving storms dropping a lot of rain over large areas will make for
a wet evening commute home later this afternoon and early evening.
Different story south of Fort Pierce where the sea breeze has pushed
west of the Interstate Turnpike corridor and in mostly rural areas
except for Indiantown and just west of the main traffic corridor
where heavy rains will impact the evening commute and perhaps large
amounts of temporary ponding of water on roads and low spots.

Storms and showers dissipate by midnight and skies become partly
cloudy toward sunrise. With light to calm winds as the lower layers
decouple and dew points in the low and middle 70s looking at another
muggy night with lows in the low and middle 70s away from the ocean and
beaches.

Wed-Thu...
middle-level closed low and troughing centered over the
Mobile/western Florida Panhandle areas retrogrades slowly toward
the southern Louisiana coast...then weakens and become stretched
out northeast-southwest as a middle level trough sweeps across the
southeast and picks/absorbs up the weakening low. The middle level
ridges over the south central and Florida/Bahama Islands merge
late Thursday into Friday. At the surface high pressure suppressed to the
south and east lifts into South Florida and builds across the
peninsula and into the western Gulf of Mexico. Still light south
to southwest flow with the ridge axis to the south of central
Florida.

Highs low with some middle 90s interior and upper 80s/around 90 at the
coast. Lows low and middle 70s with some upper 70s at the beaches Cocoa
Beach south.

Previous zones discussion
Fri-Mon...mid-level troughing will encompass the eastern Continental U.S.
During this time as a large ridge amplifies over the western Continental U.S..
deep layer southwest to west-southwest flow will be dominant through
the period. Sufficient moisture...the daily sea breeze regime and
various other afternoon boundary collisions should allow for a 40 to
50 percent chance pop through this period. The westerly steering
flow...while remaining light...will still push storms towards the
East Coast later in the day and evening. Some of these storms will
move off the East Coast presenting issues for mariners. Afternoon
highs and overnight lows in line with near seasonal conditions
through the period.

&&

Aviation...
tempo MVFR/IFR in/vc showers/storms interior taf sites through 00z
light showers from debris clouds through 04z then VFR rest of the
night and through 16z Wednesday. Isolated showers morning possible along
the coast kcof south migrating onshore around 16z transitioning to
storms/showers coastal taf sites. Tempo MVFR/IFR interior taf sites
20z-24z.



&&

Marine...
current...storms by buoy 010 at 120nm offshore kicked seas up to 5
feet and winds 15 to 20 knots. Buoy 009 was recording east to
southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and 2 foot seas. The two scripps buoys
were still recording 2 foot seas.

Tonight...no significant changes to current forecast of south to
southwest winds 5 to 10 knots and 2 foot seas. Scattered storms
mainly around the Gulf Stream become isolated after
midnight.

Wed-Sat...the fairly weak surface pressure gradient continues each
day with forecast sea breeze formation and March inland each
afternoon. Winds at or below 10 kts during the daylight period...except near
10-12 kts near the coast each afternoon following sea breeze
formation. Wind direction will vary from south-southeast to south-southwest. Seas at or below 3 feet.
The main marine concern will continue to be storms near the
coast/near shore waters each afternoon/evening as overall moisture
remains high and southwest steering winds will tend to push any
storms over the coastal areas back into the nearshore waters.





&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 75 92 75 93 / 30 30 20 30
mco 75 94 76 95 / 20 40 20 30
mlb 76 91 76 91 / 30 50 20 30
vrb 74 91 75 91 / 30 50 20 30
Lee 76 95 77 95 / 20 30 20 30
sfb 77 96 77 96 / 20 40 20 30
orl 77 94 78 95 / 20 40 20 30
fpr 75 89 74 91 / 40 50 20 30

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Impact weather...bragaw
public service...Cartwright
forecasts...Wimmer

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