Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
919 am EST Monday Nov 24 2014
..near record highs this afternoon as marine conditions abate...
Current-tonight...12z kxmr sounding shows high moisture near the
surface with patchy fog/low stratus clouds around this morning as a
result. Cloud ceilings should improve through the morning/early
afternoon but we will still maintain considerably cloudy skies most
places. Light south-southwest winds will increase in upwards of 15 miles per hour at times
into this afternoon. Deep south-southwesterly flow continues across
the area over the next 24 hours as troughing encompasses the central
Continental U.S.. at the surface a weak frontal boundary with not much
middle-level support will venture into North Florida late in the day...then
become quasi-stationary over north-central Florida overnight. With
instability weak and warm middle-level temperatures (700mb/+10.8c and
500mb/-6-3c) only a 20 percent chance of afternoon convection is
forecast. Deep layer moisture is forecast to return to the area late
overnight and towards sunrise Tuesday morning. While most areas will
remain dry cannot rule out some light precipitation developing over
the area well after midnight due to some weak isentropic lift.
Forecast light winds and moisture near the surface may spell another
combination of patchy fog/low gray clouds late overnight.
Another warm and humid day areawide with near record highs forecast
again. If the clouds thin enough this afternoon we may be able to
realize forecast highs in the middle to upper 80s...also thanks in
part to the deep southerly/moist flow. Overnight lows remain mild
well into the 60s with lower 70s across the immediate space/Treasure
Aviation...stubborn patchy fog/low stratus combo around this
morning and should burn off through late morning. Still with deepening
moist airmass in place expect to see considerably cloudy skies most
places. Convective chances at 20 percent or less today and tonight
with little trigger outside of diurnal heating/moisture. Will need
to monitor again late tonight for patchy fog/low stratus
re-development with very warm/moist airmass remaining in place.
Isentropic lift increasing late tonight could factor in some light
precipitation toward sunrise Tuesday morning.
Marine...today-tonight...cautionary statements offshore likely to
replace dying Small Craft Advisory at 10 am and mainly for seas still building to 5-6
feet here. Southerly winds will remain near 15 kts through tonight. Seas
3-5 feet closer towards the coast. Sea heights may drop another foot
for tonight from this day's forecast.
Climate...record highs for today and all within reach:
Dab 85 1992
mco 86 1992
mlb 88 1979
vrb 85 1948
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for waters
from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 nm
offshore-waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 to 60
nm offshore-waters from Volusia Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore.