Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1015 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
Current...metars and movement of low clouds on visible satellite imagery
show that the surface ridge axis remains near Lake Okeechobee early
this morning with light SW to south-southwest flow in place once again across
ecfl. Satellite also shows most of the lingering convective debris
clouds from overnight storms over the County Warning Area had dissipated by sunrise.
Exception is around Lake Okeechobee...where a residual mesoscale
convective vortex (mcv) has been drifting toward the east side of the
lake. Lift generated by this feature has caused skies to cloud back
up in the immediate vicinity of the lake. Although it is weakening
..there appears to be some potential for enhancement of convection
over the southern three counties later today from this feature. Morning
radiosonde observations show a similar moisture profile compared to early Tuesday...with
near seasonal precipitable waters ~1.7"
Today...expect convective evolution similar to Tuesday...with isolated late
morning wcsb convection increasing in coverage as it moves NE toward
the east side of the peninsula. Ecsb will remain pinned near coastal
Volusia/Brevard...but make better inland headway toward the Treasure
Coast...although flow pattern there likely to be disturbed by clouds
and early precipitation development.
Made small adjustment to nudge probability of precipitation over the far south to 50 given
presence of mesoscale convective vortex and shower band moving in from the S-se. Otherwise...
probability of precipitation elsewhere look fine...as do clouds/temps/winds.
&&
Aviation...mesoscale convective vortex near lake Okee could spark early afternoon rain showers/ts
vicinity sua-fpr-vrb through 15z-18z. Otherwise...previous forecast advertises
middle to late afternoon ts for Lee-ism-kmco-sfb and into the early evening
dab-tix-mlb-vrb as rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity pushes toward the East Coast.
&&
Marine...S-SW winds around 10kt will back to southeast in an afternoon sea
breeze near the coast..especially south of Cape Canaveral. Seas ~2ft
near shore and around 3ft well offshore. Based upon current buoy and
C-man observation...shaved a solid foot off of the gridded sea heights for
the remainder of today and into tonight.
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Forecast/aviation...cristaldi
radar/impact weather...Wimmer
