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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
345 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016

Discussion...

..below normal temperatures and hazardous marine conditions will
continue through much of the week...

Today/tonight...mid/upper level trough will continue to dig south
across the eastern U.S. Driving a reinforcing cold front through the
area tonight. Westerly winds will become breezy around 15 to 20 miles per hour
into the afternoon and remain elevated into tonight...veering more
northwest as boundary moves through the region. Skies will start off
sunny this morning...then stratocu coming off the Gulf will increase
cloud cover through the afternoon/evening with skies becoming mostly
cloudy by late day into tonight. Both MOS guidance and latest WRF/
hrrr runs continue to indicate any isolated/scattered showers ahead of this
front will remain limited to the evening hours...so will keep rain
chances out of the forecast for today and increase probability of precipitation to 20-30
percent into tonight. Any precipitation should be fairly light...
amounting to around a tenth of an inch or less.

Highs will remain below normal but will be a little warmer than
yesterday...generally in the middle 60s this afternoon. Temperatures
tonight will then fall into the 40s with the cold frontal passage.
Gusty west/northwest winds will make it feel even colder toward daybreak
Tuesday with wind chill values as low as the upper 30s.

Tue-Thu...large middle-upper vortex covering eastern noam will retreat (at
least temporarily) back north-northeastward into eastern Canada. As this occurs...
the southern lobe of the Canadian high pressure will drift southeastward from Texas into
the western Gomex...and then eastward to Florida by Thursday. This will spell a cold
and dry weather pattern for ecfl with prevailing northwest to west-northwest flow slowly
weakening by late week. Maxes will generally be in the upper 50s to
around 60f with l60s confined to the southeastern County Warning Area. Mins will drop down
into the u30s for a large part of the County Warning Area...with l-m40s once again
confined to the southeastern County Warning Area and perhaps the immediate barrier islands
farther north along the space/Treasure coasts.

Fri-sun...northern stream short wave energy will dive southeastward around the eastern
eastern Canadian vortex...which will allow to amplify and rotate southeastward
across the eastern Continental U.S. And into the western Atlantic into next weekend. This
will drive a weak and mainly dry...reinforcing frontal boundary southward through
Florida late Sat as low pressure develops off the eastern Continental U.S. Seaboard. Thus...
after temperatures slowly start to modify toward climatology norms by Saturday...
expect them to drop back to below normal Sat night-sun in a quick
cool shot behind the front.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conds generally expected the next 24 hours. Cloud cover will
increase this afternoon becoming broken-overcast into tonight... but ceilings
generally expected to remain above 3kft. May see tempo MVFR conds
with isolated-scattered light showers as they push eastward across the region
this evening ahead of next cold front to move through central
Florida.

Westerly winds will become breezy ahead of the front and remain
elevated as the boundary moves through tonight...veering to the
northwest. Wind speeds up to 15-20 kts generally expected this
afternoon and tonight with gusts up to 25 kts at times.

&&

Marine...
today/tonight...boating conditions remain hazardous today...becoming
very hazardous into tonight as a reinforcing cold front approaches
and moves southward over the waters. West/northwest winds 15-20 knots this
morning increase rapidly this afternoon and tonight...reaching up to
25-30 knots offshore with frequent gusts to gale force expected.
These winds will build seas back up to 10-11 feet offshore. Small
Craft Advisory continues over the waters with a Gale Warning now
going into effect offshore starting this evening and continuing
through the overnight.

Tue-Fri...hazardous winds/seas will continue over the Atlantic into middle-
late week. Near-gale conditions in west-northwest-northwest flow Tuesday will slacken very
slowly as winds veer more nearly by Friday. High pressure will settle over by
Thursday night...then collapse Friday ahead of the next cold front. Offshore
winds will once again increase out of the west-southwest-SW ahead of the next
reinforcing front.

The only small saving Grace in all this is that the strong marine
winds will be offshore rather than onshore...which will keep the
highest seas well away from the coast. Still...expect Small Craft Advisory conditions
over the entire maor through Tuesday night and the outer waters into Thursday
morning.

&&

Fire weather...

Today...highs will be a little warmer than yesterday...reaching the
middle 60s...and with a very dry airmass over the area expecting to see
min relative humidity values as low as the middle 30s. In addition...westerly winds
will become breezy this afternoon generating high dispersion values.
However with all the rainfall lately erc values remain very low.

Tue-Thu...a very dry air mass will remain in place into late week.
Minimum relative humidity values reach the 30s across most of the County Warning Area Tuesday afternoon...
and then the 20s for most areas both Wednesday and Thursday. Strong gusty
winds will result in unusually high smoke dispersion values for
both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 65 43 58 36 / 10 30 10 10
mco 65 45 59 41 / 10 30 10 10
mlb 65 44 61 42 / 0 20 10 10
vrb 65 45 63 44 / 0 20 10 10
Lee 66 44 58 40 / 10 30 10 10
sfb 66 43 59 38 / 10 30 10 10
orl 65 44 59 42 / 10 30 10 10
fpr 66 48 63 44 / 0 20 10 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Wednesday for Flagler Beach
to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler
Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line
to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 am EST Thursday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation...weitlich
long term/impact weather....cristaldi

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