Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

East central Florida forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
951 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2014

Discussion...
the expected saturation of the near surface parcel occurred rather
early along portions of the Treasure Coast where local visibilities have
dropped to less than half a mile in some spots.

Possibility of locally dense fog will have to be monitored across area
as presence of very light to calm winds along with ample ll moisture
should lead to adtl fog potential overnight. Mav MOS guidance no's are
indicating onset of lower ceilings at or below 1k feet by the early morning hours
shortly after midnight and continuing to degrade through daybreak
Sunday.

Depending on the likelihood of low surface visibilities vs degree of low
overcast will have to Reserve a chance of a dense fog advisory at some
point late tonight for a portion of the area. Mild overnight temperatures
can be expected once again with temperatures uniformly in the lower to middle
60s.

Sun...considerable lower clouds and areas of fog early begin to
break by middle-morning with a continuation of clearing during the
rest of the day. Airmass drying as surface ridge exerts more influence
across area will allow temperatures to recover into the lower 80s over most
areas aside from the beaches and immediate coast where cooler
water temperatures and onshore breeze temper the airmass.

&&

Aviation...
low layered clouds with numerous ceilings at or below fl012 with 2-4sm br expected
after 28/04z...from 28/04z-28/13z numerous 1-2sm br with areas visibility below
1/2sm in fog and ceilings at or below fl008...from 28/13z-28/15z becmg scattered-
bkn015-020 with visibility 3-5sm br...after 28/15z prevailing VFR.

&&

Marine...
WV guidance continues to bring distant source swell with periods near 16+ second
into the ecfl waters overnight. WV hghts and swell information at teh buoys
show initial arrival with combined seas (mainly in swell) around 3
feet this evening and rising about a foot to two feet by Sunday
morning. Due to long period of WV source headlines will not be
required...although WV hghts especially offshore near 5 feet will occur
during Sunday.

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.

&&

$$

Jp/pb

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations