Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...routine delayed
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
333 am EDT Tuesday may 26 2015
..rough surf and high rip current risk the next several days...
with ocean deaths occurring on sun/Mon...and little change in the
surf zone conditions...will carry a high rip current risk.
Otherwise...the drier air that has been over the Atlantic in
association with subsidence from middle level anticyclone will advect
into the local area. Precipitable water estimates were already
showing values just over one inch offshore.
MOS probability of precipitation are barely mentionable today and confined to areas west
of I-4 (lake and western Orange counties). Given recent trends...
will follow MOS values and have 20 percent chance for showers or
storms there this afternoon.
While breezy low level east flow will continue to generate
Atlantic cloud lines...the coverage of showers looks to be 10
percent or less. Radar suggests that a small early morning coastal
pop might be needed south of Canaveral.
Maximum temperatures look close to normal but the east flow will keep min temperatures
above normal. Have gone a degree or two above MOS along the coast
models show a deep layer of substantially drier air between
850-300mb building westward across the region middle week. This will
overall keep rain chances out of the forecast through at least
Thursday. However moderate onshore flow from high pressure ridge to the
north and elevated moisture in the lower levels may lead isolated
onshore moving sprinkles/light showers mainly along the coast in
the morning and nighttime hours. For now will continue to leave
probability of precipitation out of the forecast until Thursday night/Friday when precipitable water values begin
to increase more significantly in the easterly flow. Even then
rain chances remain low...up to 20-30 percent by weeks end.
Little change in temperatures expected through middle to late week with highs
middle-upper 80s coast to upper 80s/around 90 degrees inland. Overnight
lows will remain generally mild...especially along the coast where
temperatures are not expected to fall below the low 70s due to continued
ridge to the north keeps a deep easterly flow across central Florida
with moisture and rain chances increasing into the weekend and
early next week. Weather pattern will favor isolated/scattered onshore moving
showers along the coast overnight/morning with increasing coverage
of showers and storms across the interior during the afternoon.
Probability of precipitation around 30-40 percent Sat/sun increase to 30-50 percent Monday
with greatest rain chances remaining inland. Temperatures continue to
range around near normal values during the day and near to above
Aviation...moist low levels will produce local MVFR ceilings this
morning. Then some drier low level air will move in. The chance
for showers will be lower today...as will afternoon thunder
chances west of Interstate 4.
today-tonight...a high pressure ridge axis will extend from
offshore the middle Atlantic coast west/southwest into the
southeast states. This will continue the easterly wind flow
pattern. Speeds will be 10-15 knots...but occasionally a little
more gusty to 17-18 knots. This will generate poor conditions for
small craft operation...though just below exercise caution
Wed-Sat...high pressure ridge maintains an overall moderate onshore
breeze through the period with wind speeds up to at least 10-15
knots...increasing to around 15 knots at times. Seas generally
remain up to 4-5 feet through late week and into the weekend.
Climate...mlb had a record warm low temperature (79) yesterday.
The previous record was 76 set in 1991. This low temperature was also
the the warmest for the month of may.
There is a chance for some record warm lows again today:
Loc date hi-min
dab 26-may 73 1991
mco 26-may 74 1943
mlb 26-may 78 2014
vrb 26-may 76 1991
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 86 71 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
mco 90 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 86 75 85 73 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 87 73 86 72 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 92 72 90 70 / 20 10 10 10
sfb 90 71 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
orl 90 71 88 70 / 20 10 10 10
fpr 86 73 86 72 / 10 10 10 10