Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
340 am EDT Sat may 25 2013
Discussion...
..rough surf/moderate rip current risk through Holiday weekend...
Today-tonight...secondary boundary pushing down the peninsula
early this morning...slowly ushering in the drier air from further
north. The boundary has also kicked off a line of showers and
storms that are slowly moving through Indian River and Osceola
County this morning and are expected to push through the remainder
of the Treasure Coast through daybreak.
The early morning hours will remain warm and muggy with temperatures
still in the 70s in most locations and not expected to drop below
the upper 60s at best with dewpoints still generally in the upper
60s and 70s. However drier air is in sight with dewpoints in
Ocala... Crystal River already in the middle-upper 50s.
While expect the forecast to be dry today...the showers and storms
over the Treasure Coast may linger past sunrise. If moisture doesn't
scour out quite as quickly as models are indicating...will have to
watch areas around Lake Okeechobee this afternoon for isolated
development on the diffuse sea breeze. However with more robust
northeast flow in place think that development...if any....would be
well into southwest Florida.
Temperatures will not be as hot due to the breezy NE winds with
highs in the upper 80s in the interior and low-middle 80s along the
coast. Lower dewpoints and mostly clear skies will allow cooler
overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s across far Northern Lake
and Volusia to around 70s along the immediate coast south of Cape
Canaveral.
Sun-Mon...surface high pressure ridge will remain north of the
area and provide an easterly wind flow. Precipitable water will
remain below one inch except in the far south Monday. MOS probability of precipitation are
below 10 percent so will maintain a dry forecast. Maximum temperatures will
be a little below normal...lower/mid 80s along the coast and middle-
upper 80s inland. Low temperatures should also be a little below normal...
in the middle 60s...except south of the cape where lows will be in
the upper 60s to near 70.
Tue-Sat...deep layer high pressure ridge will remain north of the
area and provide a deep easterly flow. A slight increase in
onshore flow is indicated by Tuesday and moisture values are forecast
to increase especially in the south. The 00z GFS shows the
southern end of an upper level trough cutting off vicinity of
Florida on Wednesday with deep moisture increasing through late week.
Little change was made to the previous forecast. Small probability of precipitation in
the south Tuesday should encompass all of the area Wednesday and become
30-40 percent areawide by late week. If present trends with a cut
off low nearby persist...expect that probability of precipitation will be even higher.
Maximum temperatures are forecast in the middle 80s along the coast with upper
80s over the interior. With onshore flow and moistening...overnight
lows will creep up to the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide with
even some middle 70s along the south beaches.
&&
Aviation...revailing VFR. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain along boundary moving
south of kvrb through kfpr...Kobe...and ksua through 13z.
&&
Marine...
today-tonight...high pressure will build southwards into the
southeast US through the day resulting in a tightening pressure
gradient. Buoy 41012 offshore NE Florida has already picked up to
around 15kts...and expect the stronger winds to move down our waters
around sunrise with northeast winds increasing to 15-20kts. NE flow
will remain fairly steady through the day with a gradual decrease
from north to south this evening. Winds become more easterly
overnight with speeds 10-15kts.
Seas 2-4 feet early this morning building to 4-5ft this afternoon
with areas around 6ft in the Gulf Stream. Waves will stand up as
well due to the opposing nerly winds/srly Gulf Stream
current...dominant periods decreasing to at or below 6sec.
Sun-Mon...high pressure ridge just north of the waters on sun should
keep east winds around 10 knots in the north and 10-15 knots in
the south. The pressure gradient will tighten back up late on Monday
but the bulk of the day may be similar to sun.
Tue-Wed...looks like exercise caution conditions as tighter
gradient bumps up easterly flow to 15-20 knots over most of the
waters. The Swan model is bringing seas up to 6 feet in the open
Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will
return to the forecast.
&&
Fire weather...
today...dry conditions with lower dewpoints filtering in this
morning along the I-4 corridor. There will be a few hours this
afternoon where relative humidity values will drop to 30-35 percent in this same
area...but the northeasterly surface winds look to remain just
below the 15 miles per hour needed for red flag criteria. However the breezy
conditions may generate containment difficulties.
Sun-Wed...min relative humidity values in the north interior should be around 35
percent sun...40 percent Monday and 45 percent or higher Tue-Wed.
East flow should become gusty to around 20 miles per hour by Tuesday especially
along the coast.
Dry conditions with lower dewpoints filtering in this morning along
the I-4 corridor. There will be a few hours this afternoon where relative humidity
values will drop to 30-35 percent in this same area...but the
northeasterly surface winds look to remain just below the 15 miles per hour
needed for red flag criteria. However the breezy conditions may
generate containment difficulties.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 81 62 82 64 / 0 10 0 0
mco 88 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 10
mlb 84 69 82 70 / 0 10 0 10
vrb 84 70 81 68 / 0 10 10 10
Lee 87 61 87 66 / 0 0 0 10
sfb 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 10
orl 86 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
fpr 83 70 82 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Short term/aviation...Moses
long term....lascody
