Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
341 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
Today and tonight...forecast confidence medium to high
A shortwave trough and a wave of low pressure will move along the
US/Canadian border and Lake Superior today. A well organized area of
low to middle level warm advection and frontogenesis along with a
moistening atmosphere will bring an area of snow across northern and central WI.
It appears it will stay just north of the northern County Warning Area as very dry air
prevails in the low levels...but cannot rule out some flurries
Strong cyclogenesis over the central Great Plains will then become
the more dominant feature tonight courtesy of a strong shortwave trough
moving from the Pacific northwest into the central Great Plains. Southerly flow
and warm advection will continue but air continues to be relatively
dry as well. Thus temperatures will not fall much tonight after highs mainly in
the lower to middle 30s today...although colder toward Sheboygan.
Tuesday and Wednesday...forecast confidence...high
Strong low pressure is expected to move through the region Tuesday
and Wednesday. Models remain in pretty good agreement with the
track of the surface low...generally taking it right through the
forecast area. This will spell mainly rain for southern
Wisconsin...probably mixing with or changing to a little snow late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as colder air wraps in behind the
low. Accumulations will be very light and mainly confined to the
northwest forecast area.
Will likely see temperatures a couple to few degrees above normal away from
Lake Michigan Tuesday as southeast winds pull milder air into the
forecast area. In a preview of many days likely to come this
Spring...cooler temperatures are expected near the lake under the
Cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday...likely holding fairly
steady in the middle to upper 30s through the day. Strong west to
northwest winds will put an extra bite in the air.
Thursday through Sunday...forecast confidence...medium
Kept the forecast dry through the day Thursday as high pressure
slides by to the south. Have some chance probability of precipitation Thursday night
through Friday night...as models bring another low through the
area. There is some uncertainty with the low track and thus precipitation
type...so just went with rain/snow mix for now.
Looks dry for the weekend as high pressure moves in...with below
normal temperatures expected.
Aviation/12z tafs/...an east-southeasterly onshore flow from Lake Michigan early this
am along with frictional convergence along the Lakeshore will result
in a period of scattered-bkn015-020 stratus over the southeast WI taf sites.
Believe this will be short-lived as 1000-850 mb flow becomes due southerly
around 12z and afterward. Otherwise a dry southeasterly flow will maintain
VFR conditions today and tonight. Broken middle to high clouds are
expected through the period with some periods of scattered cloud
Marine...southeasterly flow will develop today and persist into Tuesday nt.
Winds and waves will approach Small Craft Advisory conditions today
and tonight and likely exceed those conditions for Tuesday and Tuesday nt with
high waves and gusty winds around 25 kts. Gale force wind gusts from
the southwest to west will then be possible with the cold frontal
passage on Wednesday.
Today/tonight and aviation/marine...gehring
Tuesday through Sunday...ddv