Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
931 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
Update...weak warm air advection ahead of approaching weak
frontal boundary producing broken-overcast middle-clouds over southern WI. Warm air advection
further weakens and slides off to the southeast during the night
as weak front passes through. Hence expect middle-clouds to continue
tracking southeast and clear across most of the area during the
late night. Despite slightly drier low levels...patchy fog will develop
after midnight due to lingering surface moisture and light surface winds.
Boundary layer winds and drier air above surface should prevent
fog from becoming widespread and dense most areas later tonight.
With clouds clearing...will keep overnight minimums in the upper 40s
to middle 50s.
Aviation/06z tafs/...light fog may affect taf sites late tonight
and early Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for most of the
period. Earlier NAM was indicating surge of low level moisture and
lower ceilings affecting southern WI beginning Wednesday evening but gfs20 much drier
in the low levels. Will watch for signals with incoming 00z models.