Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS 
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS WRN WI. GREATEST MOISTURE SURGE THERE. 
ALL MODELS SHOW A WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXTENDING SEWD INTO 
SRN WI FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA FROM IA THROUGH SRN MN INTO 
WC WI. SO WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY EXPANDING POPS 
ACRS SRN WI AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. 

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
MODELS AGREE ON TAKING SFC LOW PRES FROM IA INTO WC IL BY 00Z. 
MEANWHILE 850 LOW LIFTS INTO NW WI. MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED 
NORTHWARD WITH A NEARLY DUE SOUTH 40 KNOT 850 JET. PRIMARY SHORTWAVES 
OF NOTE WILL BE MOVING INTO MN AND MO. HOWEVER DECENT JET
STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH EVEN A HINT OF SOME COUPLING SO PLENTY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. SOME HINT OF A BREAK IN THE SE AFTER
OVERNIGHT WAA MOVES THROUGH WITH THE WESTERN CWA SEEING LESS OF A
BREAK AS NEXT FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP MOVES IN QUICKLY ON THE HEELS
OF THE WAA. INSTABILITY LACKING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE NOTED ON THE
SOUNDINGS SO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER A POSSIBILITY.

.THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...SO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH
INSTABILITY...SO DROPPED THE THUNDER CHANCES.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST FRIDAY WILL MOVE OUT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS MAINLY
DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP
RIGHT IN THE AREA...COULD SEE A WEAK WAVE OR TWO BRING A LITTLE
PRECIP. MOST MODELS ARE PAINTING OUT A LITTLE QPF AT
TIMES...THOUGH NOT VERY GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. 

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST A FEW SNOW FLAKES WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...MAKING THINGS EVEN MORE UNPLEASANT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING INTO WRN WI ASSOC 
WITH WAA. STEADIER RAIN SHIFTING EWD FROM IA WITH DVLPG BAND ACRS NW 
AND WC WI. SATURATION WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS INTO THIS EVENING. NO 
IMPACT ON TAF SITES JUST A GRADUAL THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED VFR 
BLANKET. TNGT/ERLY WED EXPECTING ISENTROPIC FORCING TO LEAD TO 
BETTER SATURATION AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES 
AND ACTUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF WI ON THURSDAY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE 
WIDESPREAD WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS.
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS SO
EXPECTING SE WINDS TO RAMP UP FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED
CAPE SUGGESTS ISOLATED/SLGT CHC THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF 
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE WINDS REACHING 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER WINDS 
AND REASONABLY GOOD FETCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV