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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
932 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Update...



&&

Aviation/06z tafs/...

There could be some patchy IFR/LIFR ground fog tonight...but
likely confined to river valleys and other low-lying areas.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday under high
pressure. Only a few fair weather afternoon cumulus.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 254 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/

Tonight and Tuesday...forecast confidence...high

Mostly clear skies will persist through Tuesday under high pressure.
There could be some patchy fog again tonight...mainly confined to
river valleys and other low-lying areas. Temperatures aloft will be milder
tonight...and dewpoints a bit higher...so lows will likely be at
least 5 degrees warmer than last night. It will be very pleasant
Tuesday with high temperatures right near normal values for the first day
of fall.

Short term...Tuesday night through Thursday.

Tuesday night...forecast confidence high.

Quiet weather...with decoupling surface winds and clear skies
setting up another round of fog. Mainly patchy fog...with areas of
fog possible in The Kettle Moraine valleys and Wisconsin River
Valley...with some locally dense fog. Slow rise to 925 mb temperatures
brings lows up a few degrees from previous nights...generally in the
upper 40s to around 50...though a few spotty middle 40s in low-lying
rural locations.

Wednesday through Thursday...forecast confidence high

Models a bit more persistent with weakening short wave approaching
from the plains as a small branch of the upper jet breaks away from
the main flow in Canada and dips into the Dakotas/Minnesota. 12z GFS
and gemnh bring wave through the state Wednesday night and Thursday...
while 12z NAM and European model (ecmwf) stall it over Minnesota/IA/far western WI and then
retrograde it back to the SW as strong upper ridge folds over the
top of the wave.

Little in the way of low-level moisture with dry flow around broad
high or forcing. GFS soundings develop a few hundred joules of
elevated cape but does not bring quantitative precipitation forecast into County Warning Area. European model (ecmwf) does brush the
northwest third with light quantitative precipitation forecast...but has a very dry column below 700 mb on
forecast soundings so will continue to keep period dry for now.

Long term...Thursday night through Monday. Forecast confidence high.

Quiet...pleasant weather continues as ridging holds in place through
the the weekend into next week...with a persistent but dry south-
southeast flow around the western flank of the eastern surface high
into the western Great Lakes. Ring of fire precipitation remains
well away from forecast area as temperatures remain above normal.

Aviation/00z tafs/...

There could be some patchy dense fog tonight...but likely confined
to river valleys and other low-lying areas. Otherwise...VFR
conditions will persist through Tuesday under high pressure.&&

&&

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Lm...none.
&&

$$

Update...99
tonight/Tuesday and aviation/marine...mrc
Tuesday night through Monday...rem

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