Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
841 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015
forecast is in good shape. High pressure will keep winds light
with good radiational cooling potential. Dewpoints in the 30s will
allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
VFR conditions through the taf period under high pressure.
Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015/
Tonight and Tuesday...forecast confidence - high.
Mostly clear skies will continue through Tuesday as high pressure
remains over the region. Temperatures aloft will turn a little milder
tonight into tomorrow...so will consequently see milder temperatures at the
surface as well. Highs tomorrow will be back near normal
values...except for cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan under continued
Tuesday night through Thursday...forecast confidence - high
trending toward medium.
Last vestiges of high pressure ridge will protect southern Wisconsin
through Wednesday with dry and pleasant conditions. Wednesday night into
Thursday...low level winds veer to the south...allowing deeper column
moisture to ooze into the region. Precipitable water values climb to around an
inch by Thursday. Short term guidance in good agreement on middle-level
short wave ejected out of western Continental U.S. Long wave trough helping to
flatten ridge and move across Iowa/WI/IL region. Wave expected to
weaken as it climbs ridge during this period...hence will remain with
lower probability of precipitation for now. Warming trend to continue as 925h temperatures warm to
around 17c on Thursday. However clouds will keep daytime temperatures slightly
Thursday night through Monday...forecast confidence - medium
trending toward low.
Northward extension of strong ridging into the Great Lakes still
appears to flatten early this period as low pressure trough moves
across southern Canada. In addition...medium range guidance in
reasonable agreement on carrying middle-level short wave ridge rider
across Iowa into vicinity of northern Illinois/southern WI Thursday night into Friday. For
now...will continue chance probability of precipitation with highest values in southwest County Warning Area
closer to stronger short wave passing by to the southwest.
Simultaneously... back door cold front slides through southern WI with drier
northeast flow and ridging building back in for the start of the
Quiet weather appears to be short-lived however as northern portion
of ridge across upper Midwest quickly succumbs to amplifying middle-
level short wave moving southeast from southern Canada. Some timing and
strength differences but essence of this scenario results in
returning convection threat to southern WI later in weekend.
GFS 5-day 500h means trends toward northwest steering flow and
cooler than normal heights setting up over the Great Lakes by early
in the week of June 8th.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday under high
tonight/Tuesday and aviation/marine...ddv
Tuesday night through Monday...mbk