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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
259 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Today and tonight - confidence...high.

Drier...much more stable air continues to funnel into southern WI
early this morning. Some patchy middle-clouds around 5k feet should thin
and push east of the area early this morning as weak low level cold air
push diminishes and becomes neutral. Broadscale troffing will
continue across the region into tonight with axis of upper jet over
southern WI. Likely to be some cumulus development later this morning but drier
air surge should prevent much more than few-scattered cumulus. Second weak
front/density discontinuity moves across northern WI today and across the
south this evening. May be enough of a cool air push behind this second
front to bring a period of broken clouds to northeast County Warning Area before relative humidity
thins overnight. Otherwise...much quieter for these periods with
daytime temperatures returning to near normal today and much more
comfortable humidity.

Tuesday and Wednesday...forecast confidence...high

High pressure over the Great Lakes should bring dry weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday...with deeper moisture remaining just to the
south and west of the forecast area. High temperatures should be close to
normal values both days...except for cooler temperatures near Lake
Michigan Wednesday under onshore winds.

Thursday through Sunday...forecast confidence...medium

High pressure will slowly slide eastward late week into the
weekend...allowing for a series of shortwaves to bring precipitation
chances back to southern Wisconsin. Models are trending toward a
slower exit of the Thursday may end up being dry. Kept
some low probability of precipitation in there for now. Have a chance for showers/storms
then from Friday through Sunday with the waves prognosticated to move
through. Not great model agreement with timing of probability of precipitation
still on the lower end and spread out through these last 3 days of
the forecast.

High temperatures should be near to a few degrees below normal through
the extended periods. Cooler temperatures more likely near Lake onshore winds persist most days.


Aviation/12z tafs/...a VFR period lies ahead. Few-scattered cumulus likely to
develop later this morning but drier air settling into southern WI
should limit extent of cumulus and quickly raise the cloud base to VFR
levels. Northwest breezes to pick up this morning but gusts will remain
mostly less than 20 kts.


Marine...enough low level mixing expected later this morning and
afternoon to cause a few gusts to reach 20-22 kts. Will hold off on
Small Craft Advisory due to most gusts remaining below advisory
threshold. Higher elevation of sgnw3 wind equipment may reach 25kts
a few hours. The winds will diminish rapidly during the early


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories...


Today/tonight and aviation/marine...mbk
Tuesday through Sunday...ddv

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