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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM THU...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KISO-KEWN LINE AND TIME
OF ARRIVAL TOOL FROM RADAR INDICATES IT SHOULD PASS S OF SURF CITY
BY 6 PM. IMPRESSIVE TEMP DROP FROM 83 TO 57 IN ONE HOUR AT KEWN.
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP E OVER COOL SECTOR AND NO CHANGE TO
POPS. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 737 AM THUR...STRONG COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES WITH A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN WINDS TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NEAR 50
NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PLODDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
E NC THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGHT THE CRYSTAL
COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT IS AN ANA FRONT... WITH ALL OR
MOST OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRONG FRONTAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AS WARM 850MB SW WINDS ABOVE THE SFC COLD POOL
WILL INDUCE STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN AND A DRAMATIC LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. NEAR SFC TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING JUST AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
WHEN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TAKES EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM THUR...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MIXED
SLEET AND FZRA NORTH OF HWY 70. HAVE LEFT OUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ATTM DUE TO TEMPS TAKING LONGER TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE FA AS BULK OF OMEGA WILL BE IN THE SUB
DGZ...AND IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE 850-850 MB
LEVEL. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE A FZRA/SLEET MIX AS NEAR SFC LAYER MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A REFREEZE TO ICE PELLETS THIS
EVENING. THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON FZRA ACCUMS... AND AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT FZRA ACCRUAL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RECENTLY WILL PREVENT BIG PROBLEMS ON
ROADS...THOUGH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK THIS
EVENING. DEEP LAYER DRYING OCCURS AFTER AROUND 6Z WITH MAJORITY OF
ORGANIZED WINTRY PRECIP EXITING OFF THE COAST. SOME LINGERING
-FZDZ MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND HAVE AN EXPIRATION
TIME OF 9Z FOR THIS REASON. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO THE ADVISORY IF TEMPS
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...THE LAST GASP OF WINTER EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN A RETURN TO MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
FRIDAY WITH REGARDS NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO MOS POPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
NON ZERO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN THEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH AND LOWER 30S NORTH CHANGING ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  

CLEARING AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
INLAND WILL PRODUCE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ECMWF AND MAV MOS ARE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE MID TO UPPER TEENS! DID NOT
GO QUITE THAT LOW JUST YET WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE
AROUND 20 INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S BEACHES. MODERATING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT COUPLE OF SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS
FORECAST AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER
WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUE-WED. WILL COVER WITH 20% CHC OF RAIN TO
INDICATE LOW FCST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 100 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THIS...LLWS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS AROUND
2KFT WILL BE AROUND 40KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z-06Z. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING. SLEET AND ICE ACCRETION IS MAINLY A CONCERN
AT THE KPGV SITE...BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND CLEAR
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO
THE COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRIDAY. CLEARING EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS 
PREVAILING THE REST OF PERIOD. GUSTY N-NE WINDS 15-25 MPH WILL
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THU...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH NEUSE RIVER AND
SRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ON TRACK TO REACH SRN MOST WATERS BY 6 PM.
FOG HAS LIFTED ENOUGH TO DROP ADVSY FOR SRN WATERS. 

WILL CONSIDER HIGH SURF ADVSY N OF HAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
4 PM ISSUANCE. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 737 AM THUR...MARINE DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING DUE
TO SW WARM FLOW OVER COLD WATERS. THE DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS MORNING AS STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH SHARPLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MID
AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE MARINE FOG ADVISORY INTACT LONGER HERE.

GALE WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT SCA SRN
RIVERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 KT WINDS ACROSS
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING THE
CRYSTAL COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 450 AM
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN AFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SRN RIVERS WHERE AN
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KT EARLY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE FRIDAY AND 10
TO 15 KT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
REST OF WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091>094-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR 
     AMZ130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM/TL/LEP
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL

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